1. NCHRP 7-22 Planning & Preliminary Eng. Applications Guide for the HCM Kittelson & Associates, ITRE, Mike Kyte, Stantec, Write Rhetoric 1 Full Committee Workshop June 4, 2015

2. The NCHRP 7-22 Project Purpose: ◦ To develop a guide on the use of the HCM for planning and preliminary engineering applications by  identifying appropriate methods and applications, illustrating them with case studies. End Date ◦ Extended to December 3, 2015  to address HCM Update 2

3. The People The Research Team ◦ Kittelson & Associates - Rick Dowling, Paul Ryus ◦ Bastian Schroeder, ITRE; Tom Creasey, Stantec ◦ Mike Kyte, Univ.of Idaho; Danica Rhoades, Write Rhetoric 3 The Panel Dirk Gross (Ohio) (Chair)Tyrone Scorsone (CSI) Robert Bryson (Milwaukee)Brian Dunn (Oregon ) Jessie Jones (Arkansas)Subrat Mahapatra (Maryland) Erik Ruehr (VRPA)Andrew Wolfe (SUNY) Doug McLeod (Florida)Jeremy Raw (FHWA)

4. The Process Literature Review, Critique HCM, Outline Get Stakeholder Input (1 st round workshops) Interim Report 1 st Draft Guide to Panel and Stakeholders ◦ (2 nd round workshops) 2 nd Draft Guide to Panel and HCQS (Dec 2014) Revise for HCM Update 3 rd And Last Draft Guide to Panel (July 2015) 4 We Are Here

5. The Guide Part I - Introduction ◦ Types of Analyses, Defaults, Serv. Vol Tables Part II – Mid-level Analyses ◦ Facility and intersection analyses ◦ Ped, bike, transit, truck Part III – High-level Analyses ◦ Corridors, regions Part IV – Case Studies, Example Apps. 5

6. Levels of Analysis 6 Multi- facility Single facility, point

7. Focus of Guide 7 Multi- facility Single facility, point

8. Applying the HCM to P&PE HCM is not always well suited for planning and preliminary engineering analyses. Sometimes ◦ Additional defaults need to be supplied. ◦ Gaps need to be filled or bridged. ◦ Rough spots need to be smoothed. 8

9. How we did it – Midlevel methods Planning methods that bridge the more complex parts of the HCM ◦ Planning method for freeway facilities ◦ Planning method for urban streets (HCM) ◦ Planning method for signals (already in HCM) ◦ Volume-delay graph for AWSC Alternative or new methods ◦ Reliability: C11 equations ◦ Truck LOS: NCFRP 31 9

10. How we did it – Hi-level methods Use HCM software engines to generate look-up tables ◦ Speed-flow, capacity, service volumes Fit speed-flow curves to HCM tables 10

11. Case Studies – Showing what is in the P&PEAG Freeway Master Plan Impacts of BRT Project on Urban Street Long Range Regional Transportation Plan Analysis Roadway System Monitoring 11

12. 70 mile long Interurban Freeway Case 1 – Freeway Master Plan 12

13. Objective of Case 1 To develop a Corridor Mobility Master Plan to identify current and future mobility problems in the corridor, and establish capital project priorities along the corridor. 13

14. Case 1 Example Problems I.1 – Focusing the Study I.2 – Forecasting V/C Hot Spots I.3 – Estimation of Speed and Travel Time I.4 – Prediction of Unacceptable Auto LOS Spots I.5 – Estimation of Queues I.6 – Prediction of Reliability Problems 14

15. I.1 – Focus the Study Use service volume tables to identify super-sections at risk. Compare AADTs to values in tables ◦ Select appropriate table ◦ Adjust for local conditions Identify super-sections with high probability of LOS problems. 15

16. Spot the Problem Supersections 16 Super- Section Facility Type Area Type Terrain Future AADT Modified Max AADT (x 1,000) Future LOS LOS C LOS D LOS E A4-ln HighwayUrbanLevel57,60059,20075,70084,100A-C B4-ln FreewayUrbanLevel63,50062,90078,40090,800D C4-Ln FreewayRuralLevel70,10050,40062,80072,700E D4-Ln FreewayUrbanLevel55,80061,00076,00088,000A-C E6-Ln HighwayRuralMountain44,50052,50067,10074,500A-C F4-Ln FreewayUrbanLevel58,70065,80082,00094,900A-C G4-Ln FreewayUrbanLevel58,80057,90072,10083,500D H4-Ln FreewayUrbanLevel32,40065,80082,00094,900A-C I4-Ln HighwayRuralLevel19,50056,40072,10080,100A-C

17. I.2 Forecast V/C Bottlenecks Apply P&PEAG Planning Method ◦ Identify section types (basic, ramp, weave) ◦ Estimate free-flow speed (psl+5) ◦ Estimate capacities, ◦ Assign demands ◦ Compute section v/c’s 17 Ramp BasicRampBasicRampBasic Flow 2 345671

18. Problem D/c’s 18 Section #C1C2C3C4C5C6C7 Sect. Capacity (C i ) 4,4424,2204,4424,2204,4424,2204,442 Time Period 1 (16:00-16:15 ) Demand (d i,1 ) 3,3364,0243,9844,4723,8523,9643,852 D/C Ratio0.750.950.901.060.870.940.87 Time Period 2 (16:15-16:30) DEMAND (d i,2 ) 3,7914,5734,1754,9813,8023,9293,802 D/C Ratio0.851.080.941.180.860.930.86 Time Period 3 (16:30-16:45) DEMAND (d i,3 ) 3,3364,3774,1805,4293,8523,9643,852 D/C Ratio0.751.040.941.290.870.940.87 Time Period 4 (16:45-17:00) DEMAND (d i,4 ) 2,8813,6323,5975,2283,9023,9993,902 D/C Ratio0.650.860.811.240.880.950.88

19. Constrain the Demands 19 Flow 3,000 9008001,000500300800 3,9003,1004,1003,6003,9003,100 Unconstrained 3,000 9008001,000489300782 3,9003,1004,0003,5113,8113,029 Constrained 100 2 345671 2 345671

20. II.3 – Estimate Speed/Travel Time Approach: ◦ Step 1: Estimate delay rates ◦ Step 2: Compute travel times and speeds 20 Where: DR = delay rate (secs/mi) X = volume/capacity ratio A, B, C, D = parameters

21. I.4 –Predict Auto LOS Hot Spots Step 1: Estimate density and auto LOS Step 2: Interpret results 21 Freeway Segments Level of ServiceDensity (pc/mi/ln) A<= 11 B>11-18 C>18-26 D>26-35 E>35-45 F>45 or v/c>1.00

22. I.5 – Estimate Queues 22 Section Number1234567 Length (mi.)0.051.650.241.510.370.810.18 Number of Lanes2222222 Section Capacity (vph)4,4424,2204,4424,2204,4424,2204,442 Time Period 1 (0-15 minutes) Demand (vph)3,3364,0243,9844,4723,8523,9643,852 D/C Ratio0.750.950.901.060.870.940.87 Density (vpmpl)26.936.634.450.832.535.532.4 Estimated Queue (mi.) 2.48 Actual Queue (mi.) 0.73 0.241.51

23. I.6 Predict Reliability 23 Where: TTI m = average annual mean travel time index (unitless) FFS = free-flow speed (mi/h) RDR = Recurring delay rate (h/mi) IDR = Incident Delay Rate (h/mi) S = recurring peak hour speed (mi/h) N = number of lanes in one direction X = recurring peak hour v/c ratio (v/c <= 1.00) Modified SHRP2-C11 Method

24. 14 mile urban street BRT to take 2 thru lanes Case 2 – Urban Street BRT 24

25. Objective of Case 2 to identify the traffic, transit, pedestrian, and bicycle impacts of the proposed BRT project. 25

26. Case 2 Example Problems II.1 – Screening Service Volume Problems II.2 – Screening for Auto V/C Hot Spots II.3 – Auto and BRT Speeds II.4 – Predicting Queue Hot Spots II.5 – Transit, Bicycle, Pedestrian LOS 26

27. II.1 –Screening for Problems Step 1: Divide BRT route into supersections Step 2: Obtain AADTs Step 3: Identify service volumes Step 4: Identify supersections for further analysis 27

28. Service Volume Screening 28 StreetLimitsAADT Before BRTAfter BRT Further Analysis ? Lanes Max LOS D Lanes Max LOS D Telegraph Ave.Dwight to Woolsey16,570428,200213,800Yes Telegraph AveWoolsey to SR 2418,340428,200213,800Yes Telegraph AveSR 24 to 45 th St.16,540528,200313,800Yes Telegraph Ave45 th St. to Broadway16,230528,200313,800Yes International Bl.Lake Merritt to 23 rd 10,220428,200213,800No International Bl.23 rd Ave to 35 th Ave.13,370428,200213,800No International Bl.35 th Ave to High St.15,910528,200313,800Yes International Bl.High to Hegenberger13,560528,200313,800No International Bl.Hegenberger to 98 th 14,830528,200313,800Yes International Bl.98 th Ave to Dutton11,180528,200313,800No

29. II.2 – Intersection V/C Checks Step 1: Required data Step 2: Determine left turn phasing Step 3: Convert turns to pce’s Step 4: Assign volumes to lane groups Step 5: Calculate critical lane group vols Step 6: Compute intersection v/c 29

30. Intersection V/C Input 30 Signalized Intersection Planning Method, Input Worksheet (Part 1) Telegraph Avenue and 51 st Street NBSBEBWB LTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRT Volume 8379459283505222947638091582111 Lanes 11 11 22 12 PHF 0.92 % HV 0.05 Parking activity Yes Ped activity Med LT phasing Protected

31. Intersection V/C Output 31 Signalized Intersection Planning Method, Calculations (Part 1) Telegraph Avenue and 51 st Street NBSBEBWB LTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRT Step 1. Determine LT phasing Check #1LT<200LT>200 LT<200 Check #2 Not exceed a given Threshold Exceed a given Threshold Not Exceed a given Threshold Check #31 LT lane 2 LT lanes1 LT lane LT phasingProtected Step 2. Convert turning movements to passenger car equivalents E HVadj 1.05 E PHF 1.09 E LT E RT 1.3 EPEP 1.2 E LU 1.05 1.031.05 v adj 9590910532460739347917143104699198 Step 3. Assign volumes to lane groups v i (pc/h/ln) 951014 324646 174530 104449 Step 4. Calculate critical lane groups vc EW, vc NS vc NS =1338vc EW =634 vcvc 1972 Step 5. Intersection volume-to-capacity ratio v c /c i 1.20 (Use Default c i =1650 pc/h/ln) SufficiencyOver Capacity

32. II.3 – Speeds for Auto and BRT Step 1: Estimate midblock free-flow speeds Step 2: Estimate intersection delays Step 3: Check for mid-block delays Step 4: Compute segment speed Step 5: Estimate BRT speed Step 6: Aggregate to facility level 32

33. Estimate Auto Speed 33 Where: Ti = travel time segment “I” Li = length of segment Dint = delay at intersection Dmb = mid-block delay Si = average speed segment “I” Auto speed = 7.4 mph LOS = F

34. Estimate Bus Speed 34 where T i,bus =base bus travel time for segment i (s), FFS=midblock free-flow speed from Equation H-1 (mi/h), 5,280=number of feet per mile, 3,600=number of seconds per hour, L i =Length of segment i (ft), d int,bus =average bus traffic signal delay not part of dwell time (s), d mb =midblock bottleneck delay (if any) (s), and d bs =total bus stop delay in the segment (s). Bus Speed = 20.3 mph At frequency = 4/hr, LOS = A-C

35. II.4 – Estimation of Queues 35 Signalized Intersection Planning Method - Queue Calculations NBSBEBWB LTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRTLTTHRT Capacity (veh/h) 269839 269839 95443 95443 Ave Delay (s) 4733 5228 5746 5746 Ave Queue (veh) 48 47 26 26

36. II-5 – Transit, Bike, Ped LOS Apply HCM methods with defaults 36

37. Case 3 - LRTP 2040 Regional Transportation Plan - 6,000 square miles - 1 million population 37

38. Objectives Conduct transportation performance and investment alternatives analysis required to update 2040 LRTP Auto, truck, bus, bicycle, and pedestrian analyses to be performed. Travel demand forecasting model to be used 38

39. Example Problems Example Problems that Develop Demand Model Inputs ◦ Example I.1 – Estimation of Free-Flow Speeds and Capacities ◦ Example I.2 – HCM Based Volume-Delay Functions Example Problems Post Processing Demand Model Outputs ◦ Example I.3 – Speeds for Air Quality & Noise Analysis ◦ Example I.4 – Screening for Auto V/C and LOS Hot Spots ◦ Example I.5 – Predicting Queues & Delay ◦ Example I.6 – Interpretation of Results ◦ Example I.7 – Prediction of Reliability ◦ Example I.8 – Transit, bicycle, and pedestrian LOS screening ◦ Example I.9 – Truck LOS screening 39

40. LRTP Case Study Construction of free-flow speed and capacity look up tables by facility and area type. Speed-flow equations fitted to HCM curves. 40

41. Case 4 – System Monitoring State produces annual report on state highway system performance. Over 12,000 center-line miles Two different monitoring station types ◦ Some collect AADT only (e.g. HPMS) ◦ Some collect simultaneous hourly spot speeds and volumes (loop detectors) Crowd Sourced Travel Time Data ◦ NPMRDS + Commercial sources 41

42. Case 4 – Example Problems IV.1 – Using the HCM to estimate performance from AADT IV.2 – Using the HCM to spot congestion in crowd sourced travel times. IV.3 – QA/QC of detector data using the HCM 42

43. Comments/Suggestions Rick Dowling – rdowling@kittelson.com rdowling@kittelson.com Paul Ryus- pryus@kittelson.com pryus@kittelson.com Dirk Gross (Panel Chair) - 43

44. Next Steps Update final report for HCM 2010 Update Submit to panel 07/31/2015 Submit Final to TRB 10/31/2015 44

45. Next Steps 2 Seek continuation requests by 7-22 panel for: ◦ Supplement to add new Chapter 23/34 material on Alternative Intersections. ◦ Revision to incorporate new Chapter 15 on two-lane highways  Due from NCHRP 17-65 by Sep. 2016. Outreach to Profession ◦ workshops, training? 45

46. Future Directions? Adaptations for New Vehicle Technologies (Connected/Automated Vehicles) Methods for ATDM Investment analyses Other? ◦ Add managed lanes and work zones to frwys. ◦ Improve on c11 reliability method for frwys. ◦ Create planning method for streets reliability. 46