1. Morton District 709, IL Demographic Study Findings February 2014

2. Who We Are

3. Cropper GIS Consulting, LLC K-12 school planning is our business and our passion. Our specialty is redistricting, demographics and boundary studies. Cropper GIS works with K-12 school districts to: develop redistricting plans, develop demographic studies, facilitate community engagement, prepare long-range facility master plans, author site feasibility studies, conduct & publish housing impact and yield factor studies, and provide GIS implementation & training. Cropper GIS is an ESRI Authorized Business Partner

4. Matthew Cropper, GISP, Cropper GIS 13+ years experience providing GIS mapping and analysis services to school districts and other clients. Manages and Facilitates rezoning/planning projects across the U.S. One of the only certified GIS Professionals (GISP) in the educational planning industry. Trained school district personnel across the U.S. how to use & apply GIS. Published numerous papers about using GIS for boundary planning and master planning. Principal & Project Manager Who We Are

5. Jerome McKibben, PhD Experience - PhD in Demography, Bowling Green University - Taught demography, statistics, sociology within US & Europe - Served as a State Demographer of Indiana for 6 years - Fulbright Scholar Award Recipient, Germany 2002 - Testified before state legislatures, courts, and the US Congress regarding census and population issues Notable Publications “ School District Planning Needs and the 2010 Census ”. In Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 33, No. 2, May 2007 “ The Impact of Policy Changes on Forecasting for School Districts ”. Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 15, No.5, December 1996, P. 527-536 “ Race and Ethnicity. ” In Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition. Edited by Jacob Siegel and David Swanson. Academic Press, Boston, March 2004 “ Population Distribution - Classification of Residence. ” In Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition. Edited Jacob Siegel and David Swanson. Co-authored with Kimberly Faust. Academic Press, Boston, March 2004 Introductions

6. Recent Planning Projects: McLean County Unit 5 Schools, IL CCSD 59, IL DeKalb District 428, IL Champaign Unit 4 School District, IL Urbana School District 116, IL Baltimore County Public Schools, MD Frederick County Public Schools, MD U.S. Department of Justice, Civil Rights Div. Akron Public Schools, OH Henrico County Public Schools, VA Charleston County Schools, SC Who We Are

7. Why We’re Here

8. Project Objectives Cropper GIS Consulting was hired by Morton District 709 to facilitate and manage the project. Our firm is tasked to: A. Develop population forecasts by school attendance area by grade for the next 10 years (i.e. 2014-15 through 2023-24). B. Develop enrollment forecasts for 2014-2015 to 2023-24 inclusive, by grade level for each elementary, middle school and high school attendance area. C. Analyze current and future demographic dynamics of the district and attendance areas. D. Assess the school district’s potential facility planning considerations from a demographic and building utilization perspective. E. Develop a written report that summarizes demographic study findings and assessment of facility utilization and school district facility plan.

9. Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts

10. Data Collected from multiple sources including: School District– Official enrollment counts by school by grade, along with enrollment databases by address Internal Revenue Service (IRS) – In/Out Migration data. U.S. Census Bureau – 2010 Population/Housing data

11. Live Attend Analysis

12. Live Attend Matrices PK-6 th Grades Matrix

13. Live Attend Analysis 7-8 th Grades Live Attend Table 9-12 th Grades Live Attend Table

14. Live Attend Analysis

20. “In order to understand what will happen with enrollment, you first must understand what will happen to the entire population” Forecast Methodology

21. Methodology Three Main Steps: 1.Identify pertinent census blocks to collect necessary SF1, SF3 and SF4 detailed Census demographic information 2.Calculate a total population forecast for geographic study area with the Cohort- Component Method 3.Calculate enrollment forecast using modified average survivorship methods

22. Methodology, continued Factors Considered in Forecasts Include 1.Number of women in child bearing age 2.Change in area mortality rates 3.Magnitude & prevalence of out migration patterns by age 4.Magnitude & prevalence of in migration patterns 5.Considerations determined by local neighborhood factors Demographic Study & Enrollment Forecasts

23. Demographic Study The population forecasts in the demographic study are developed by using the Cohort-Component Method of population forecasting. Five data sets are required to generate population and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are: A base-year population (here, the 2010 Census population for the BPS Schools and all of its geographical areas i.e. School Attendance Areas); A set of age-specific fertility rates for each small area to be used over the forecast period; A set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for each small area; A set of age-specific migration rates for each small area; Historical enrollment figures by grade for all facilities to be projected. Historical enrollment databases will also be used to calculate student populations by small area regardless of where they attend.

24. Population Pyramids

25. Pop pyramids are graphic representations showing age-sex distribution of a geographic area. Proof is in the pyramid – Population Pyramids Demographic fingerprint. Can be placed into broad typologies, but no 2 areas have the same exact characteristics.

26. Areas with majority of householders 40-55 are most likely to have a decline in household size over the next 10 years as their children move out of the house / go off to college, hence an overall decline in enrollment. Population Pyramids – What are they telling us? Areas with majority of HH 20-35 are most likely to have increase in HH size over the next 10 years as they have kids and they age into the schools. Areas with colleges inside will show a large cohort in this level. These can be isolated by removing group quarters population.

27. Morton IL - Total Population, Census 2010

28. Brown Elementary -Total Population Census 2010

29. Grundy Elementary - Total Population Census 2010

30. Jefferson Elementary - Total Population Census 2010

31. Lincoln Elementary - Total Population Census 2010

32. Forecast Assumptions A.Economy stays similar to Winter 2014, and the area or country does not go into deep recession Defined as 4 consecutive quarters where GDP contracts. Inflation rate of gasoline stays below 5% per year for the life of the forecast B.Housing market and lending practices maintain similar rates as Winter 2014 Interest rates will not fluctuate more than 1 percentage point in the short-term, and 30-year fixed home mortgage rates stay below 5.5% Mortgage lending practices maintain current rates and lenders do not return to ‘sub-prime’ practices. No additional restrictions on mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers. Rate of foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Tazewell County All currently platted and approved housing developments are built out by 2022, and housing units are occupied by 2023.

33. Forecast Assumptions C.Unemployment rates remain below 9.5% D.Rates of students transferring in and out of the Morton District will remain constant E.Transfer rates of students within the district remain the same as 2010 to 2013 levels F.There will be no building moratorium within the district G.Businesses within the district and county remain viable H.Existing ‘distress’ home sales will not exceed 20% of total home sales I.Home turnover rates remain constant J.Private and home school attendance rates remain constant K.New home construction rates have stabilized L.Rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at 2004-2007 rates

34. Population Forecast Results

35. What We’ve Found: Population

36. Enrollment Forecast Results

37. What We’ve Found: Enrollment  Junior High School enrollment (7-8 grade) forecasted to increase through life of forecast, with a gain of 117 students from 2013-14 through 2023-24  High School enrollment (9-12 grade) forecasted to increase through life of forecast, with a gain of 187 students from 2013- 14 to 2023-24

38. Enrollment Forecasts

39. Facility Plan Assessment: From a building utilization and demographics perspective

40. Facility Plan Assessment Facilities have been explored from a demographic and facility utilization perspective. Observations are:  Moving 5 th and 6 th grade out of the elementary schools will provide immediate and forecasted relief across the district.  PK-4 grade enrollment is forecasted to be stable with minor increases, so this move would provide elementary school relief through the life of the forecast.  Adding capacity to both Junior High and High Schools are necessary  High School enrollment (grades 9-12) are forecasted to increase through the life of the forecast.  187 student increase forecasted in grades 9-12 from 2013-14 to 2023-24  High School class forecasted to be 1,110 students in 2023-24  Junior High School enrollment (7-8 grade) forecasted to increase through life of forecast, with a gain of 117 students from 2013-14 through 2023-24  Grades 5-8 (recommended Junior High School) are forecasted to total 1,048 students by 2023-24

41. Facility Plan Assessment  From a demographic perspective, both class sizes are forecasted to be similar in size  1,110: 9-12 graders in 2023-24 vs.  1,048: 5-8 graders in 2023-24  The district should consider facility needs to serve Junior and High School students when deciding to pursue a long term facilities plan, such as site size and facility configuration to educate students in the 21 st century.  Demographic study results do not contradict any current plans/options that are being discussed for facility expansion.

42. Next Steps:  Finalize demographic study report and send to the district

43. Questions? Population and Enrollment forecasts by school available if requested

44. Population Forecasts

49. Enrollment Forecasts