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ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Calibration of Radar Based Re-entry Predictions S. Lemmens (1), B. Bastida Virgili (1), T. Flohrer (1), H.

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Presentation on theme: "ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Calibration of Radar Based Re-entry Predictions S. Lemmens (1), B. Bastida Virgili (1), T. Flohrer (1), H."— Presentation transcript:

1 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Calibration of Radar Based Re-entry Predictions S. Lemmens (1), B. Bastida Virgili (1), T. Flohrer (1), H. Krag (1), F. Gini (2), C. Steiger (3) (1) European Space Agency, Space Debris Office, (2) European Space Agency, Navigation Support Office, (3) European Space Agency, Solar and Planetary Missions Division

2 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Re-entry orbit data products The public availability of GPS data for a non-manned spacecraft during re-entry is a rare occurrence. Reconstructed orbit from GPS measurement can serve as a ground truth for assessing the quality of the basis for ‘normal’ re-entry predictions. Does the pseudo-empirical value of 20% uncertainty on the re-entry epoch dependent on remaining lifetime hold for radar based re-entry predictions?

3 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations Tracking & Imaging Radar (TIRA) from the Fraunhofer Institut für Hochfrequenzphysik und Radartechnik (FHR). – 34 m ∅ – Tracking Radar: L-Band (1.33 GHz) – Imaging Radar: Ku-Band (16.7 GHz) Meter level range resolution and milli-degree angular resolution.

4 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations TIRA is used by ESA for independent orbit determination in the frame-work of re-entry predictions as well as collision avoidance. Tracking data is processed in-house with the ODIN software to estimate the state and drag-coefficient via a batch least-squares process (Rank reduction, Levenberg- Marqaudt optimization) The fitted orbit can be compared to a reference for quality checking (c.f. Gini, et al). The results can be propagated as, e.g., to make re-entry predictions (c.f. Bastida Vigili, et al).

5 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Tracking PassStart epoch (UTC) End epoch (UTC) Min. Range [km] Max. elevation [deg] ISAR imaging 1 2013/10/22T07:17:062013/10/22T07:22:28404.134.3Yes 2 2013/10/22T18:49:492013/10/22T18:56:02402.433.4No 3 2013/10/23T07:01:552013/10/23T07:07:49642.418.8No 4 2013/10/29T18:19:422013/10/29T18:25:49309.244.6Yes 5 2013/10/30T07:58:242013/10/30T08:03:37440.928.5No 6 2013/10/31T07:37:272013/10/31T07:43:47221.381.0Yes 7 2013/11/07T07:44:202013/11/07T07:49:54228.456.1No 8 2013/11/08T07:14:262013/11/08T07:19:32451.622.1No 9 2013/11/08T18:38:502013/11/08T18:44:14203.462.7Yes 10 2013/11/09T08:08:582013/11/09T08:13:44568.515.5Yes 11 2013/11/09T18:05:002013/11/09T18:09:47537.516.2Yes 12 2013/11/10T07:32:042013/11/10T07:37:02189.855.5Yes

6 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Tracking All reasonable combinations of tracks are tried to fit an orbit, potentially using a previous fit as initial guess. NRL-MSIS00 atmosphere model, 30x30 JGM03 geo- potential model, fixed Cd assumed during the fit period. Station biases and epoch biases are estimated 15 fits are retained as of sufficient quality for a re-entry prediction based on the number of passes used and residual RMS. RMS of the fit versus RMS of the differences w.r.t. the reference orbit

7 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Good fit

8 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Good fit

9 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations : Good fit

10 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Bad fit

11 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Bad fit

12 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Tracking Fit numberEpoch (UTC) No. Tracks [-] Fitted cD [-] Range RMS [km] Azimuth RMS [deg] Elevation RMS [deg] Reference Range RMS [km] 1 2013/10/22-07:30:0013.3850.12579E-010.42908E-020.82904E-020.146640 2 2013/10/23-07:15:0033.6790.43153E-010.11692E-010.18246E-010.074246 3 2013/10/30-08:15:0023.3700.28464E-010.19844E-010.34444E-0118.30148 4 2013/10/31-08:00:0033.6240.50883E-010.17724E-010.25564E-010.161752 5 2013/11/08-08:15:4423.9200.20121E-010.16772E-010.15861E-010.109213 6 2013/11/08-18:40:4433.7740.31003E-010.15031E-010.18567E-010.121194 7 2013/11/09-08:10:4443.65900.89329E+000.41797E+000.38446E+003.720242 8 2013/11/09-08:10:4433.5560.32706E-010.10837E-010.20896E-010.141724 9 2013/11/09-18:07:4443.6760.87665E+000.24636E-010.14789E+001.838436 10 2013/11/09-18:07:4433.7610.40644E-010.11025E-010.24359E-010.237662 11 2013/11/09-18:07:4433.7610.40639E-010.11026E-010.24359E-010.237661 12 2013/11/10-07:35:4443.8240.75129E+000.32257E-010.11586E+001.483740 13 2013/11/10-07:35:4433.9110.51939E-010.92709E-020.26978E-010.195948 14 2013/11/10-07:35:4423.6420.16191E-010.99656E-020.22318E-010.148577 15 2013/11/10-07:35:4423.8420.19829E-010.27250E-010.22425E-010.271460

13 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar estimation: Cd variation Observed Cd variation driver: Attitude Space weather Atmosphere modelling

14 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Imaging Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar Images: – The Line Of Sight is embedded in the images plane, determining the Range axis. – The rotational motion of the target determines the axis orthogonal to the LOS, the so called Doppler or Cross axis. – Features in the ISAR images are the sum of all parallel projections of point scatters. In-house software MOWA to assess the attitude of GOCE from ISAR images.

15 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Imaging Cross-Range Range Velocity (V) Line-of-Sight x V Cross-Range Range

16 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar observations: Imaging Automated image analysis to define a fit score for attitude behaviour. The anticipated attitude behaviour did not materialise above 150 km as the controller did not fail. Only small out-of-plane attitude motion could not be resolved from these ISAR images.

17 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar estimation: Cd variation Uncontrolled attitude at 145 km.

18 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Radar estimation: Cd variation X-class solar flares in Nov 2013: X1.1 10-05:14 SSN 1890 X1.1 08-04:26 SSN 1890 X3.3 05-22:12 SSN 1890

19 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Re-entry epoch uncertainties Rule of thumb: 20% uncertainty on the re-entry epoch w.r.t. the prediction epoch due to atmospheric disturbance. Validation for the GOCE case (OrbGen propagation): – Use LS residuals as Gaussian error on the Cd to sample new values. – Use state during all retained passes. – Use 26 generate Kp environments during the re-entry prediction, including storms. – October (234 predictions) <> November (1144 predictions) – Compare to the reference orbit at 128km perigee at Equator.

20 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Re-entry epoch uncertainties October November

21 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Re-entry epoch uncertainties October

22 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Re-entry epoch uncertainties November

23 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Outlook ESA will further study the GOCE re-entry data as a starting point for analysing: – Developing high accuracy orbits till 100km altitude with accompanying atmosphere models. – Observation strategies for re-entry predictions. – In depth assessment of re-entry prediction uncertainties. – Aerodynamic stabilisation between 100 and 200 km altitude.

24 ESA UNCLASSIFIED – Releasable to the Public Conclusions Orbit determination RMS correlates well with reference orbit RMS, even though necessary filtering might skew results. No offset from the nominal attitude behaviour could be identified from ISAR images, as this was most likely enforced by the atmospheric torques. Nominal attitude behaviour was disturbed by geomagnetic storm, influencing the estimated Cd. Re-entry predictions well within the 20% boundary, and within 10% under the given perturbation conditions.

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