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Comparison of Transportation Options in a Carbon-Constrained World: Hydrogen, Plug-in Hybrids and Biofuels Presented at the National Hydrogen Association Annual Hydrogen Conference Sacramento, California March 31, 2008 By C. E. (Sandy) Thomas, Ph.D., President H 2 Gen Innovations, Inc. Alexandria, Virginia www.h2gen.com
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2 Advanced Vehicle Simulations Objectives: Compare the societal costs of advanced vehicle/fuel options over the 21 st century Estimate cost of a distributed hydrogen infrastructure Urban Air Pollution Greenhouse Gas Pollution Oil Import Costs
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3 What is best for society? Hybrid electric vehicles? Plug-in hybrids? Biofuels? Fuel cell vehicles? …….or all of the above!
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4 US Greenhouse Gas Sources
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5 Alternative Vehicle/Fuel Combinations ICEV ICE HEV ICE PHEV FC HEV FC PHEV BPEV Fuel Economy 1.01.39 2.45 Gasoline RefXX Diesel XX Ethanol XXX Hydrogen XXXX Electricity SSX X = primary fuel; S = secondary fuel; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; FC = fuel cell; BPEV = battery-powered electric vehicle
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6 Alternative Vehicle/Fuel Combinations ICEV ICE HEV ICE PHEV FC HEV FC PHEV BPEV Fuel Economy 1.01.39 2.45 Gasoline RefXX Diesel XX Ethanol XXX Hydrogen XXXX Electricity SSX X = primary fuel; S = secondary fuel; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; FC = fuel cell; BPEV = battery-powered electric vehicle
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7 1990 Baseline Transportation Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions 1 st Target: 60% Below 1990 Levels 2 nd Target: 80% Below 1990 Levels
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8 GHG Reference Case: 100% Gasoline Cars Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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9 GHG Base Case: Gasoline Hybrids Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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10 GHG: Gasoline Plug-in Hybrids Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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11 GHG: Ethanol Plug-In Hybrids (Cellulosic Ethanol) Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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12 GHG: Fuel Cell Vehicles Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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13 Oil Consumption (US) US 2030 oil production = 2.72 B bbl/yr (14.3 Quads); US 2006 non- transportation consumption = 2.25 B bbl/year (6.16 M bbl/day) [Ref: AEO 2008]
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14 Urban Air Pollution Costs Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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15 Monetized Externalities Societal Costs Calculated for: –Urban air pollution (average of six sources for costs)* –Greenhouse Gas emissions ($25/tonne to $50/tonne) –Oil/Balance of Trade/Military protection costs ($60/bbl) * VOC = $6.59/kg; CO = $1.28/kg; NOx = $13.84/kg; SOx = $29.74/kg; PM-10 = $53.74/kg; PM 2.5 = $134/kg.
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16 Societal Cost Reduction Factors* *Reduction Factor defined as societal cost of gasoline ICEV/cost of alternative vehicle; Near-term = now to 2020; Mid-term = 2021 to 2050; Far-Term = 2051 to 2100
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17 Key Assumptions Assume success for all options Assume stringent climate change constraints
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18 Assume Success! Fuel Cell Vehicles: –FCVs are durable & cost competitive –Hydrogen infrastructure & cost are competitive & available –Hydrogen sources become green over time
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19 Assume success! Plug-in Hybrids: –Deep discharge batteries allow up to 52 miles all electric range & 65% grid energy –75% of all vehicles have access to night- time charging outlets –The electric grid becomes green over time
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20 Assume success! Ethanol Plug-in Hybrids: –Same as for gasoline PHEVs, plus –Ethanol is made from cellulose –Ethanol production capacity grows from 7 billion gallons per year from corn to 120 billion gallons per year from cellulose
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21 Greening of the Grid
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22 Grid GHGs Relative to 1990
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23 Greening of Hydrogen Biofuels at Forecourt Central SMR + CCS
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24 Gasoline Hybrid Scenario Market Shares (50% Market Share Potential by 2024)
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25 Gasoline Plug-In Hybrid Scenario Market Shares (50% market share potential by 2031; 75% plug-in potential; 12 to 52 mile all-electric range; 18% to 65% energy from grid)
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26 Ethanol Plug-In Hybrid Scenario Market Shares [50% market share potential by 2031, 75% plug-in potential, and 120 billion gallon/year ethanol production cap (vs. 7 B/yr now)]
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27 Fuel Cell Vehicle Scenario Market Shares (50% Market Share Potential by 2035)
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28 Hydrogen Infrastructure Costs (US) (Distributed Hydrogen Generators at Fueling Stations) Source: U.S. DOE H2A Model
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29 Cost to Reduce Grid Carbon Footprint Source: EPRI for generator capital costs and capacity factors
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30 Infrastructure Costs Compared to Gasoline & Diesel Infrastructure Source: Oil & Gas Journal
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31 H 2 Costs & Societal Savings
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32 H 2 Costs & Societal Savings (scale change)
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33 DOE Hydrogen Program Spending Compared to Other Projects
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34 DOE Hydrogen Program Spending Compared to Prior Projects
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35 DOE Hydrogen Program Spending Compared to Prior Projects
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36 DOE Hydrogen Program Spending Compared to Prior Projects DOE annual hydrogen program $ = 1.45 days of Iraq War $
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37 Conclusions Hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles are the only option that can: –Reduce GHG ’ s to 60% below 1990 levels
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38 GHG: Fuel Cell Vehicles Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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39 Conclusions Hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles are the only option that can: –Reduce GHG ’ s to 60% below 1990 levels –Achieve petroleum energy independence* * Hydrogen ICE Vehicles could also achieve petroleum energy independence
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40 Oil Consumption (US) US 2030 oil production = 2.72 B bbl/yr (14.3 Quads); US 2006 non- transportation consumption = 2.25 B bbl/year (6.16 M bbl/day) [Ref: AEO 2008]
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41 Conclusions Hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles are the only option that can: –Reduce GHG ’ s to 60% below 1990 levels –Achieve petroleum energy independence* –Virtually eliminate urban air pollution * Hydrogen ICE Vehicles could also achieve petroleum energy independence
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42 Urban Air Pollution Costs Source: Argonne National Laboratory GREET 1.8a
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43 Acknowledgments Joan Ogden (1989 Solar Hydrogen Report) UC Davis (Mark Delucchi, et al.) US DOE (1994 Ford/DOE/DTI to present; H2A cost model, Steve Chalk, JoAnn Milliken, et al.) Argonne National Lab (Michael Wang & GREET model) NHA hydrogen story task force (Frank Novachek, leader, John Elter – Stationary applications) Barney Rush (CEO H 2 Gen)
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44 Thank You Contact Information: C.E. (Sandy) Thomas H2Gen Innovations, Inc. Alexandria, Virginia 22304 703-212-7444, ext. 222 thomas@h2gen.com www.h2gen.com
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45 To Plug or Not to Plug?
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46 GHGs (Including H2 ICE PHEVs)
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47 Urban Air Pollution (Including H2 ICE PHEVs)
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48 GHGs (Including BPEVs)
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49 Urban Air Pollution (Including BPEVs)
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50 Why Not Battery-Electric Vehicles?
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51 Storage Volume (Batteries vs. Hydrogen)
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52 Vehicle Weight (Batteries vs. Hydrogen)
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53 Natural Gas vs. Gasoline Prices $3.50/gallon = $28/MBTU Natural Gas Gasoline
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54 Natural Gas use for FCVs
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55 Impact of FCVs on Global Natural Gas Resources
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56 NGV vs. FCV (Hydrogen from natural gas)
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58 Plug-in Hybrid Assumptions Source: EPRI /NRDC report on PHEVs
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59 Marginal Grid Mix Illustration Figure. Illustration of marginal grid loads for a typical US electric utility
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60 HGM-2000 Field Units
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61 Greenhouse Gases* (Batteries vs. Hydrogen) *Assumes hydrogen made on-site from natural gas, and average marginal US electrical grid mix for charging EV batteries
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62 Early Hydrogen Infrastructure
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63 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Factors
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64 Urban Air Pollution Reduction Factors
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65 Oil Consumption Reduction Factors
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66 Alternative Vehicle Market Penetration Assumptions
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67 GHGs vs. Fuel Cost H2-PV-Electrolysis (20 c/kWh for 7 hr/day) Gasoline:$2.50/gal. HEV H2-Grid-Electrolysis (6 c/kWh for 24 hr/day) H2 ICE HEV H2 FCV H2 HEV ICEV H2-Wind-Electrolysis (5 c/kWh for 8.4 hr/day [35%]) H2 FCV H2 = hydrogen; HEV = hybrid electric vehicle; FCV = fuel cell vehicle; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; PV = photovoltaic (solar cells) EPRI: Wind = 7.5 cents/kWh by 2010; Wind = 5.2 cents/kWh by 2020 with 29% average capacity factor Plug-in HEV
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68 GHG vs. Fuel Cost (Scale change) Gasoline ICEV HEV H2-Natural Gas ICE HEV H2-FCV H2-Corn Ethanol ICE HEV H2-Cellulosic Ethanol ICE HEV H2-Wind-Electrolysis (5 c/kWh for 8.4 hr/day [35%]) Plug-in HEV
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69 Delivered Hydrogen Costs
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70 Oil & Gas Recoverable Resources Oil Natural Gas
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71 Manufacturing ramp up: ensuring on-time deliveries
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72 GHG Reduction Targets California, Florida, S.309, etc. Illinois, S.280, etc. Lieberman-Warner target: 70% below 2005 by 2050
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