1. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG The FAO outlook to 2030/2050 Production, Consumption, Resources Global Perspective Studies Unit Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

2. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Part 1: The outlook to 2030/2050

3. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Population growth to continue, but at a slower pace 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 1750180018501900195020002050 Total population (billions) 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 Annual increments (billions) Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2006

4. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG

5. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG fewer OECD distortions lower stocks high energy prices weather/climate export restrictions low demand elasticities more hunger, uncertainty R&D, GR low energy prices high government stocks OECD support, export subsidies

6. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG World Bank lending for irrigation and drainage 1960-2005:

7. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG How much more food needs to be produced?

8. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG

9. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Yields (mt/ha)Yield growth (% p.a.) Acreage rank1961/632005/07205062*-06*06*-50* 10Rape seed0.561.612.912.431.35 1Wheat1.142.723.752.000.73 3Maize1.994.736.061.990.56 9Seed cotton0.921.952.801.720.83 2Rice1.934.055.231.700.58 4Soybeans1.142.293.661.601.07 11Groundnuts0.861.491.911.260.57 6Barley1.432.433.241.210.66 7Sorghum0.931.392.360.921.21 8Millet0.580.861.430.901.16 5Pulses0.590.841.330.811.05 13Sugar cane48.3467.02112.340.751.18 12Sunflower1.001.291.720.580.66

10. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG How would high energy prices change the outlook?

11. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG How big is the energy market? 1.Energy market (TPES): nearly 500 EJ 2.Biomass: 50 EJ (80% in developing countries) 3.Biofuels: 2.1 EJ, on ca. 26 million ha 4.Transport energy needs: ca. 95 EJ 5.Crop area to cover transport energy needs: >1000 million ha, i.e. 2/3 of global crop area. 6.Energy market is large, creates perfectly elastic demand for agricultural produce at break-even points (parity prices).

12. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG D5 D4 D3 D2 D1 S4 S3 S5 S2 S1 P Q End of the treadmill? The new agricultural price paradigm T1T1 T2T2 T3T3 T4T4 D*5 (bio)energy demand perfectly elastic demand at parity prices S6

13. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Will a shift to 2 nd generation biofuels bring alleviation/solution?

14. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG More R&D in more efficient feedstocks? 1.Energy market is big relative to the food market 2.Food – fuel competition is competition for resources (land, water) (not between food and feed feedstocks!) 3.More efficient feedstocks would help reduce area at limited demand, but at potentially unlimited demand, demand for feedstocks will rise (potentially in a big way). 4.More R&D in more efficient biofuel feedstocks may have unexpected and even unintended area expansion effects: Beware of what you are wishing for/investing in!

15. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Is there enough land?

16. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG How much land is in use, how much is available now and in 2050? 1066 1031 366 220 99 874 497 203 236 237 212 86 387 265 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Latin America and Caribbean sub-Saharan Africa East AsiaSouth AsiaNear East/North Africa Industrialized countries Transition Economies million ha Suitable for rainfed crop production Arable land use, 2005 Source: Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAO Arable land use, 2050

17. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Arable land expansion Land with (rainfed) crop production potential (million ha) Source: AEZ 2002 Total land suitable Very suitable SuitableModerately suitable Land in use in 2005/07 Gross land balance attainable yield as % of MCFY 80-10060-8040-60 World41881348150979416022586 Developing countries2782110910014009661816 Sub-Saharan Africa1031421352156236795 Latin America1066421431133203863 East Asia36614611953235131 Near East/North Africa99422418613 South Asia220116771720614 Developed countries1371222495391635736

18. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Is there enough suitable irrigation land?

19. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG

20. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Irrigated land expansion and water use Table 7Total arable land: data and projections Area equipped for irrigation 1961/632005/0720501961-052005-50 million ha% p.a. World1412873181.710.24 Developed countries3868 1.570.00 Developing countries1032192511.760.31 excl. China and India47971171.910.42 sub-Saharan Africa3682.070.67 Latin America818242.050.72 Near East/North Africa1529361.860.47 South Asia3781861.980.14 East Asia4085971.420.30

21. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Is there enough water?

22. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG How important is water for agriculture and food security? 287 mha, 219 mha irrigated in developing countries 70% of all freshwater use 20% of cultivated land in DCs 40% of agricultural production in DCs 60% of cereal production in DCs

23. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG

24. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries Todayin 2030 Is there enough water? Source: Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAO

25. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Irrigation efficiency by region (in %) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 s-Saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing Today in 2030 still significant water use efficiency gains to be had

26. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Is there enough yield potential?

27. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Sources of growth for the future in developing countries Source: Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAO 2006-2050 71% 8% 21% YieldsCropping IntensityArea

28. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Yield increases and yield gaps Wheat yields: 16 countries with over 4 million tonnes of mainly rainfed wheat production

29. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Iowa maize yield 61-90; 90-08 196019701980199020002010 0 3 6 9 12 b=95 kg/ha/yr R 2 =0.51*** b=206 kg/ha/yr R 2 =0.61*** Year Maize yield (t/ha)

30. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Climate change: the role of agriculture

31. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG

32. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Climate change: the impact on agriculture

33. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG biophysical changes: higher temperatures and more evaporation more precipitation and higher rainfall variability more frequent extreme weather events  higher production variability inundation of coastal areas melting glaciers, water circulation, irrigation potentials higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration impacts on agriculture/food high latitude areas: ↑yields for GMT 2.5°C GMT low latitude areas: ↓yields even for ↑temp 1-2°C globally production neural up to +2C GMT, but lower production in low-latitude areas Higher yield variability due to weather extremes high latitudes: more land suitable for agricultural production (+160 million ha), low latitudes: less land for agricultural production (-110 million ha) CO 2 fertilization effect, but uncertain fire risks, pests and diseases, food safety, e-coli, malaria, etc. ∆Yield

34. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG 1.Future output challenges +70% more food production to 2050, but slow down in growth overall enough resources (land, water, genetics), but growing regional/local resource pressures (land, water) energy market huge, energy demand cannot be met by agriculture climate change to increase pressure on the resource base of the poor more productive agriculture needed to fight hunger, poverty 2.R&D needs to meet the challenges Invest more specifically to address the needs of the poor (abiotic stress, crops of the poor) Divergent R&D needs in developed and developing countries: rebalance productivity growth with other goals such as nutrition, environment, etc. CC: R&D to promote productivity growth, to minimize acreage expansion CC: R&D for abiotic stresses (drought tolerance, etc.) but prioritize mitigation over adaptation (timing, financing); seek win-win (CA/NT) Bioenergy: R&D investment in more efficient biofuel feedstocks? Unintended area expansion effects possible! Timing, sequencing: Invest steadily, avoid pro-cyclical action and price movements; synchronize R&D investment with other measures (water pricing, water use efficiency); take into account the long gestation periods. Organize/co-ordinate R&D: Combine expertise of the private sector with needs and constraints in developing countries: PPPs, humanitarian use licenses, etc Summary and conclusions

35. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG Thanks. Questions?

36. The FAO Outlook to 2050 – Production, Consumption, and Resources Paris, GCARD, 27 January 2010 Josef Schmidhuber, FAO, LOG