1. Egypt and “populist authoritarianism”

2. Introduction Introduce a way of thinking about pol econ and social struggles Comparing pathways over time and across countries East Asia, Latin America, Egypt

3. Pathways from the periphery Early industrialisation Secondary industrialisation Import substitutionLight industry dominant (IS1) (South Korea, Taiwan, Latin American countries in the 1950s, Egypt until 1980s) Heavy industry dominant (IS2) (Latin America in 1970s and 1980s) Export orientationLight industry dominant (EO1) (South Korea and Taiwan in 1960s) Heavy industry dominant (EO2) (South Korea and Taiwan in 1970s and 1980s) Preceded by primary product exports Succeeded by neoliberal market opening (1980s)

4. Success and industrialisation strategies East Asia: Most successful: – PPE=> ISI1 => EOI => neoliberalism Latin America: less successful – PPE => ISI1 => ISI2 => neoliberalism Egypt: least successful – PPE=> ISI1 => neoliberalism

5. Stress points PPE=> ISI1 ISI1 => ISI2 ISI1 => EOI neoliberalism

6. Egypt before 1952 British cotton plantation 1882: debt and British occupation Merchant and landowning class => nationalist BUT less radical than popular movements AND how to get to industrialisation?

7. State-led development 1952-1973 1952: Nasser Politics over economics in land reform and nationalisation: – Breaking power of bourgeoisie/landowners Populist authoritarianism: – Workers – Peasants (middling peasants!) – Public sector

8. “Bureaucratic authoritarianism” General Park Cheung-Hee (first on the left) during the coup in May 1961 Chiang Kai-Shek, head of the Kuomintang regime in Taiwan 1949-1975 Soldiers guarding the Guanabara palace during the coup of March 1964

9. 1973: Infitah Sadat’s turn to the West ISI had reached its limit Infitah caused import boom Cronyism: Osman Ahmad Osman

10. 1980s and neoliberalism Populist basis of regime vs. pressures for neoliberal restructuring “Janus-faced” role of the state (IKENBERRY): as much reform as necessary (outside pressure), as little as possible (to maintain popular support) Rise in authoritarianism (KIENLE) Cronyism > broad social coalition “Arab Spring”: pressures present for a long time!

11. Social forces: Winners and losers PoliciesWinnersLosersEconomic effect Before 1950s  Free trade  Private property  Some mild ISI  Large landowners  Merchants/ importers  Some early industrialists  Peasants  Urban poor  Small industrial working class  Slow structural change (industrialization) 1950s&1960s  Increased government expenditure  Subsidies on basic food stuffs and fuel  Land reform  Nationalization  ISI  Some SOEs  Bureaucracy/civil service  Industrial workers  Middling peasants  Large landowners  Early industrialists  Merchants/ importers  Some industrialization  Trade deficit  Government debt  Some equity gains (e.g. land tenure, waged workers) but inequality persisted 1970s&1980s  Trade opening  Persistence of SOEs  Some reduction in subsidies  Private sector contracting  Reduction in government spending (1980s/1990s)  Importers  Contractors  Some large agriculturalists  Urban poor (subsidies! Egypt bread riots 1977)  Civil servants/ bureaucracy  1970s: import boom, continued government budget deficits financed through debt and oil income  1980s: fiscal crisis and balance of payment crises

12. Conclusions Think of transition from one stage of industrialisation to another as “pressure points” “Populist authoritarianism” meant that Egyptian state too “weak” to press for deepening of industrialisation (required repressing labour)