1. National Update May 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1

2. SLIDE 2 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 SLIDE 2 Heading into the Election Year

3. SLIDE 3 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. 63% 29% WT

4. SLIDE 4 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen sharply since then. Source: PEW Research, 12/9/2015

5. SLIDE 5 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 America’s Political Polarization Continues to Increase SLIDE 5

6. SLIDE 6 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 1982 2002 1994 Most Liberal RepublicanMost Conservative Democrat GOP Caucus DEM Caucus IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE 344 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 252 Members DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 137 Members 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus 13 4 National Journal analysis of voting records, 2013. DEM Caucus GOP Caucus 2013 4

7. SLIDE 7 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Road to 2016: The Democrats

8. SLIDE 8 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 White (63%) Non-White (37%) Hillary Clinton 47%63% Bernie Sanders 50%34% NET DIFFERENCE -3%+29% Primary Ballot – First Choice Democratic Primary Voters Support among non-white voters is the key to Clinton’s being on the verge of securing the nomination.

9. SLIDE 9 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Road to 2016: The Republicans

10. SLIDE 10 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Total Primary Turnout by Year 2012 (GOP)/ 2008 (DEM) 2016% Change 14,151,67122,778,695 +61% 22,316,72718,558,721 -17% ^Excludes Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Washington, Wyoming, and all non- state primaries as of April 20, 2016 Republican primary election turnout is soaring.

11. SLIDE 11 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 May 29, 2012* *Mitt Romney had over 50% of the delegates per AP. It still may be hard to get to 50% of the delegates in 2016. GOP Nomination: Remember this date

12. SLIDE 12 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 55%34% 38%54% 20%71% Trump and Cruz are by far the most likely nominees. Ted Cruz is the nominee. Donald Trump is not nominated. The Convention selects a new candidate. % Acceptable % Unacceptable Among Republican Primary Voters

13. SLIDE 13 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 The Underlying Structure of the 2016 Campaign SLIDE 13

14. SLIDE 14 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 IF… Presidential Approval Rating THEN… Democrats’ Chance of Winning 41%23% 46%37% 50% Measuring economic confidence is important because it is a key component of President Obama’s job approval and an important factor in the 2016 election. Obama Job Approval Today*: 48% *Real Clear Politics average as of April 29, 2016.

15. SLIDE 15 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 The percentage of white voters has been dropping over the last six presidential elections. Whites

16. SLIDE 16 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Democrats start with the “big blue wall.” Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV

17. SLIDE 17 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 FL Statewide Margin Miami-Dade County Margin PA Statewide Margin Philadelphia County Margin 2000 +537+39,275+204,840+348,223 2012 +74,309+208,459+309,840+492,339 Statewide Margins v. “True Blue” Counties Margins Democrats have built margins in key counties in swing states.

18. SLIDE 18 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Two unique front runners help define this race.

19. SLIDE 19 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 More people say they know “a lot” about Clinton or Trump compared to President Obama in 2012! 2008 Obama 22% 2012 Obama 43% 2016 Trump 48% 2016 Clinton 56% How much do you feel that you know about ______ and what (he/she) stands for – know a lot, know a fair amount, know just some, or know very little?

20. SLIDE 20 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Looking Ahead to the General Election

21. SLIDE 21 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Feelings on the Presidential Election: General Election Voters

22. SLIDE 22 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 There is simply no precedent for the high negative ratings for both potential nominees. Election Year GOP Candidate% NegativeDEM Candidate% Negative 2016 Trump 65% H. Clinton 56% 2012 Romney 44% Obama 43% 2008 McCain 39% Obama 34% 2004 Bush ’43 44% Kerry 43% 2000 Bush ‘43 30% Gore 37% 1996 Dole 38% B. Clinton 33% 1992 Bush ‘41 46% B. Clinton 37%

23. SLIDE 23 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 There has been no other recent presidential campaign where a majority of voters are voting against both candidates rather than voting for the candidate of their choice. Republicans - Voting AgainstDemocrats – Voting Against 2016 56% 201237%20% 200832%19% 200420%50% 200029%31% 199648%29% 199238%39% 198838%46% 198418%43% 198044%38% * Different language variations shown

24. SLIDE 24 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 TOTAL 39%50% +11%+4% Men 46%43% +3%+7% Women 33%56% +23%+11% White Men 54%34% +20%+27% White Women 41%48% +7%+14% 2012 Difference Difference

25. SLIDE 25 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 TOTAL 39%50% +11%+4% Whites 47%41% +6%+20% African Americans 9%86% +77%+87% Latinos 22%70% +48%+44% Republicans 72%13% +59%+87% Independents 40% +0%+5% Democrats 9%87% +78%+85% Ballot Margins: 2016 Compared to 2012 2012 Difference Difference

26. SLIDE 26 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Impact on US House and Senate Campaigns

27. SLIDE 27 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Republicans are a bit more vulnerable at the House level. GOP Lean Or Toss Up Seats DEM Lean or Toss Up Seats QUARTER Toss Up/Lean House Seats Source: The Cook Political Report GOP Lean or Toss Up Seats DEM Lean or Toss Up Seats QUARTER

28. SLIDE 28 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Source: Polls (270towin), The Washington Post, and FairVote.orgChart based on work done by Doug Sosnik. StateTrump Deficit vs. Clinton Presidential Ad Spending 2012 ($896m) New Hampshire-19$34 million Illinois-18-- Pennsylvania-15$31 million Wisconsin-12$39 million Florida-7$173 million Nevada-6$55 million North Carolina-6$97 million Ohio-5$150 million ColoradoNo Recent Data$73 million Clinton leads Trump in most battleground Senate states.

29. SLIDE 29 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Ticket-splitting voting is disappearing in Senate campaigns. Source: Ticket Splitting (Sabato, UVA Center for Politics) 1988199219962000200420082012 52%31%29% 21%20%19% Ticket-Splitting Voting Different White House and Senate Result by Party Drop in Ticket-Splitting Results 63.5%

30. SLIDE 30 Public Opinion Strategies—May 2016 Questions?

31. Bill McInturff| bill@pos.org Office: (703) 836-7655 SLIDE 31