1. Or you can use crude data. Crude birth rate is the number of childbirths per 1,000 people per year (in estimation)…and crude death rates, similarly, are the number of deaths per 1,000 people per year. To calculate population growth, you can use raw data, where the actual number of persons is shown… Country ACountry B Population in Millions14482 Crude Birth Rate438 Crude Death Rate1810 Infant Mortality Rate1003.8 Total Fertility Rate5.91.3 Percentage of population under 15 years old 4514 Percentage of population older than 653.019 Average life expectancy at birth4779 Percentage Urban4475 Just looking at the data in this table, which country is probably developing? How do you know?

2. For example, if a country has a population of one million and 15,000 babies were born last year in that country, we divide both the 15,000 and 1,000,000 by 1000 to obtain the rate per 1000. Thus the Crude Birth Rate is 15 per 1000. The Crude Birth Rate is called "crude" because it does not take into account age or sex differences among the population. In our hypothetical country, the rate is 15 births for every 1000 people but the likelihood is that around 500 of those 1000 people are men and of the 500 who are women, only a certain percentage are capable of giving birth in a given year. Crude Birth Rates of more than 30 per 1000 are considered high and rates of less than 18 per 1000 are considered low. The global Crude Birth Rate in 2014 was 19.4 per 1000. In 2014, Crude Birth Rates ranged from 6.72 per 1000 in Monaco to 46.12 in Niger. The CBR in the United States in 2014 was 13.42 per 1000.

3. World historical and predicted crude birth rates (1950–2050) YearsCBRYearsCBR 1950–195537.22000–200521.2 1955–196035.32005–201020.3 1960–196534.92010–201519.4 1965–197033.42015–202018.2 1970–197530.82020–202516.9 1975–198028.42025–203015.8 1980–198527.92030–203515.0 1985–199027.32035–204014.5 1990–199524.72040–204514.0 1995–200022.52045–205013.4 World historical and predicted crude death rates (1950–2050) YearsCDRYearsCDR 1950–195519.52000–20058.6 1955–196017.32005–20108.5 1960–196515.52010–20158.3 1965–197013.22015–20208.3 1970–197511.42020–20258.3 1975–198010.72025–20308.5 1980–198510.32030–20358.8 1985–19909.72035–20409.2 1990–19959.42040–20459.6 1995–20008.92045–205010 Discuss projected trends of birth and death rates. What might the population pyramid for the world population in 2045-2050 look like? Let’s get some practice calculating growth rates

4. % Growth Rate, or % change, is a useful indicator to look at how much a population is growing or declining in a particular area. Let’s take a look at an example: Calculate the growth rate or % change of a particular city, which had a population of 800,000 in 1990, and 1,500,000 in 2008: GROWTH RATE: Current Value – Past Value x 100 Past Value So: 1,500,000 – 800,000 x 100 800,000 700,000 x 100 800,000.875 x 100 = 87.5% growth rate To calculate how that translates to an annual rate, take the total growth rate, and divide it by the number of years, or 87.5% / 18 YEARS AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE = 4.86 % ( ( ( ( ( (

5. In the coming years, the fifty least developed nations are expected to increase their populations greatly, from 800 million to 1.7 billion. What is the annual growth rate, if this projected increase were to take place over two decades? CV-PV x 100 PV 1,700,000,000-800,000,000 x 100 800,000,000 900,000,000 / 800,000,000 = 1.125 x 100 = 112.5% increase over 20 years Annual Average = 112.5/20 = 5.625% increase per annum. ( ( ( (

6. In 2015 the US population was 320,000,000 people. In 2000, there were 282,000,000. What is the total growth rate over the past 15 years? What is the average annual growth rate? r = 320,000,000 – 282,000,000 x 100 282,000,000 r = 38,000,000 x 100 282,000,000 r =.13475 x 100 r = 13.5% over 15 years 13.5%/15 years =.9% per annum

7. Total enrollment at Northwest High School as of April 2008 was 3,267. The enrollment at Northwest High School for April 2015 was 2,330. What is the annual growth rate over that period of time? Current value: 2,330 Past Value: 3,267 2,330-3,267 x 100 3,267 -937/3,267 x 100 -.2868 x 100 = -28.7% What is the annual growth rate, if over 7 years the net growth rate is -28.7% -28.7%/7 or -4.1% annually Our population has declined…just wait until next year!!! ( ( It is EXTREMELY important that you subtract past value from current value, even if you get a negative number for your answer…remember, negative growth is entirely possible!!!

8. There is another way to calculate the growth rate. Instead of using actual birth numbers, and death numbers, you may be given a problem that uses the Crude Birth Rate, and the Crude Death Rate. (CBR and CDR). To calculate population growth rate using these figures, the formula is r=CBR-CDR What was the annual growth rate of Washington DC in 1950? In Washington DC, in 1890, the crude birth rate was 37/1,000, and the death rate to 12/1,000. In that year, a census showed that the population of Washington DC had grown to 2.5 million. By 1950 the population growth had declined as the CDR remained at its 1890 levels, but the CBR had dropped to 22/1,000.

9. r= CBR - CDR r = 22/1,000 - 12/1,000 = 10/1,000 or r = 2.2% - 1.2% = 1% or r =.022 -.012 =.01 The annual growth rate for Washington DC in 1950 was… As you can see, there are multiple ways to earn your points! In Washington DC, in 1890, the crude birth rate was 37/1,000, and the death rate to 12/1,000. In that year, a census showed that the population of Washington DC had grown to 2.5 million. By 1950 the population growth had declined as the cdr remained at its 1890 levels, but the cbr had dropped to 22/1,000. What was the annual growth rate of Washington DC in 1950?

10. In 1855, the first year vital statistics were collected for Washington DC, the total population was 1.6 million, with a crude birth rate of 43/1,000. The population was growing rather slowly, because of the relatively high crude death rate of 41/1,000. In 1875 the growth rate increased rapidly, as the crude birth rate remained at 43/1,000, while the crude death rate dropped to 20/1,000. What was the total growth rate in 1855? r = CBR-CDR r = 43/1000 – 41/1000 = 2/1000 or r = 4.3% - 4.1% =.2 % or r =.043 -.041 =.002 How much higher was the growth rate in 1875, compared to 1855? r = 43/1000 - 20/1000 = 23/1000 or r = 4.3% – 2.0% = 2.3% or r =.043 -.020 =.023 23/1000 – 2/1000 = 21/1000 higher or 2.1% higher or.021 higher

11. In 1890, the crude birth rate was 37/1,000, and the death rate to 12/1,000. In that year, a census showed that the population of Washington DC had grown to 2.5 million. By 1950 the population growth had declined as the cdr remained at its 1890 levels, but the cbr had dropped to 22/1,000. In 1977 statistics showed that the cdr was at 10/1,000 and that the population growth had slowed to.4%. By 1990, Washington DC had reduced its birth rate to that of its now, low death rate. The population was in balance. What was the birth rate in Washington DC in 1977?

12. The question is what was the birth rate in Washington DC in 1977? You know the growth rate is.4%, and you know the CDR is 10/1,000. You don’t know the birth rate. So, set up your formula: r = CBR - CDR.4%= cbr – 10/1,000 or.4% = cbr – 1/100 or.4% = cbr -.01 (1%) So.4% = cbr – 1% (solve for cbr).4% + 1% = cbr – 1% + 1% 1.4% = cbr Or 14/1,000 Remember, you get points for writing the equation, and working out each step. The correct answer is only worth 1 point, while the process will earn you more! In 1977 statistics showed that the cdr was at 10/1,000 and that the population growth had slowed to.4%. By 1990, Washington DC had reduced its birth rate to that of its now, low death rate. The population was in balance.

13. In 1950, the population of a small suburb in Los Angeles, California, was 20,000. The birth rate was measured at 25 per 1000 population per year, while the death rate was measured at 7 per 1000 population per year. Immigration was measured at 600 per year while emigration was measured at 200 per year. Calculate the population size in 1951. r = CBR + Immigration - CDR + Emigration r = 25/1000 + 600 - 7/1000 + 200 r = 18/1000 + 400 r = 1.8% + 400 1.8% of 20,000 = 360 360 + 400 = 760 20,000 + 760 = 20,760

14. In 2,000, the world birth rate was 22 births per 1000 people. The world death rate was 9 deaths per 1000 people. Calculate the percent world growth rate. r = CBR – CDR r = 22/1000 – 9/1000 r = 13/1000 r = 1.3% r =.013 Uganda has a crude birth rate of 48 and a crude death rate of 18.4. Calculate the percent population growth rate for Uganda. r = CBR – CDR r = 48/1000 – 18.4/1000 r = 29.6/1000 r = 2.96%

15. A population had a growth rate of 1.7 in 1995. In what year would the population be double its current value? Assume all other factors are constant. 70/1.7 = 41.18 years 1995 + 41 years = 2036 Rule of 70!!!