1. Models of Foreign Policy Decision Making PO400 Unit 7

2. A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making 2

3. Influences on Foreign Policy Choice International International –Polarity  Distribution of power or power ratio –Geographic position  Continental  Littoral  Coterminous 3

4. Influence on FP: state/domestic Why focus on regime type? Democratic peace theory: –Monadic version: democracies are more peaceful than authoritarian regimes.  Not true: Democracies fight as many wars as do authoritarian states. –Dyadic version: democracies do not fight each other  Although they fight wars against authoritarian states, democracies almost never fight each other. –IR scholars have only statistically linked democracy with a kind of foreign policy fundamentally different from that of authoritarianism.

5. DPT (cont) Caution: correlation is not causation Structural explanation: to gain a majority of public support, solutions are moderated and extremes are avoided Normative explanation: shared identity and shared norms Institutional (rational choice) explanation: leaders of democracies make a rational decision not to go to war with other democracies. Ironically, could be a rationale for war! Trend is toward democratization in most of the world’s regions. But transition to democracy is not necessarily peaceful “Third wave of democratization” (Huntington, 1991) “Fourth wave of democratization and dictatorship” (McFaul, 2002)

6. Influences on FP: domestic Organizational Processes and Politics Organizational Processes and Politics  Procedures influence decision content  Governments are not monolithic –Bureaucratic Politics  the “process by which people inside government bargain with one another on complex public policy questions”  “where you stand depends on where you sit” (Miles 1978) -Organizational Politics -Standard operating procedure (SOP) -Efficient, predictable but limited policy options -Small group -Informal, ad hoc, permanent (with institutional base) -Groupthink: the “deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment” that increases the likelihood of the group’s making a potentially defective decision

7. Influences on Foreign Policy Choice Domestic political institutions Domestic political institutions –Executive branch (the head of the government)  Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch –Legislature  The power of the purse –Court  Jurisdiction usually limited to domestic affairs –Interest groups  What do they want?  How do they get what they want? –Media  Still the watchdog? –Public opinion  What influences public opinion on foreign policy? 7

8. Influences on Foreign Policy Choice Individual Decision Making Individual Decision Making –Leaders as the makers of the global future Factors affecting capacity to lead Factors affecting capacity to lead –Assumption and rationality –Political efficacy –Historical lessons –Amount of available time and information –Ability to deal with crisis –Degree of control over actual foreign policy making –Personality and psychoanalysis –Cognitive limitations  Misperception, bias, wishful thinking 8

9. Rational Actor Model Throughout this process, the state is seen as unitary and rational Throughout this process, the state is seen as unitary and rational 1.Problem recognition and definition 2.Goal selection and prioritization 3.Development and assessment of alternatives (cost-benefit analysis) 4.Value-maximizing choice

10. Rational Actor Model In this model, decisions are calculated responses based on the pursuit of national interests at reasonable costs or risks In this model, decisions are calculated responses based on the pursuit of national interests at reasonable costs or risks Attractiveness Attractiveness –it places few informational demands on the observer Criticisms Criticisms –decision-making is much more complicated than just weighing objective factors –Downplays the role of chance, accident, and coincidence

11. Rational Actor Model Procedural rationality Procedural rationality –A method of decision making based on having perfect information with which all possible courses of action are carefully evaluated Bounded rationality (H. Simon 1956) Bounded rationality (H. Simon 1956) –Rationality is limited by the information individuals have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision  satisficing Perceptions of gains and losses Perceptions of gains and losses –people value gains and losses differently –Risk averse vs. risk acceptant Rationality is context dependent! Rationality is context dependent!

12. Decision-making Why understanding decision-making is difficult… Why understanding decision-making is difficult… –No single decision-making process exists –Decisions are seldom final and tend to lack concrete beginning and ending points –There is an imperfect link between the policy process and the policy outcome Thus any decision-making model is likely to oversimplify the problem Thus any decision-making model is likely to oversimplify the problem Models offer analytical tools which can be combined to provide useful insights Models offer analytical tools which can be combined to provide useful insights