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1 NORTHWEST ENERGY EFFICIENCY ALLIANCE 2015 Operations Plan Emerging Technology – Product Management - 40029
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2 Table of Contents 2014 Summary 2015 Plans Goals & Objectives Critical Success Factors, Challenges, Opportunities & Contingencies Staffing Plan Budget & Scenario Planning Support for Success
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3 2014 - Emerging Technology Priorities Meet current cycle business plan objectives. Backfill for initiatives that are moving into market development phase. Build NEEA infrastructure for next funding cycle
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4 Delivery to 2010-2014 business plan objectives StatusGoalComments 5% market share of ENERGY STAR HPWHNot 5% but met intent 300 aMW savings potential readied for marketClose, but depends on RWLR Partner with California on at least one research collaborative We have partnered with CA on several projects including Biz IT, RETA CRES, early stage AG pump efficiency, and others Deliver at least 3 market research projects per yearPost to Conduit and NEEA.org Design practical pathways to achieve interim milestones for the 2030 Challenge for Net Zero Energy/Carbon Buildings IDL projects have contributed to this leading to a new program in 2015 Identify and demonstrate at least two next generation energy efficient products and services for information technologies Business IT project demonstrated several potential technologies Ready for market at least two industrial process innovations ET Accelerator project provided several industrial technologies for FP Develop and gain regional commitment to comprehensive market strategic plans Not completed to full intended level by end of business cycle. Key focus area for cycle 5
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5 Pipeline Metrics Cycle 4 to Cycle 5 Metric (aMW)Cycle 4 Goal 2014 Year EndCycle 5 Goals Scanning-~17001400 In Process1200~500*1000 Readied for Market300~270175 5 year TRS Savings 200~220145 20 Year TRS Savings 0 * Reduction of ~ 500 aMW when EBR, CRE and TTTA moved to infrastructure. Includes 183aMW added by dryers program
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6 2014 Improvement Projects and Budget Improvement Projects Logic model development Strengths identification, organization, and development Unsolicited proposal process refined and added to sharepoint Budget On track for annual forecast
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7 2015 Goals and Objectives Meet Business Goals: Develop new technologies and ideas to fill pipeline and meet goals for readied for market and for creating conditions for sustained markets. Focus on residential, rural, and heavy load hour opportunities Grow Engagement with Funders/Stakeholders and Other Organizations: BPA, ETO, RETAC, advisory committees, CEE, ETCC, WCULT and other organizations that help identify new opportunities and evaluate them. Support Program Improvements: Contribute to the development of new approaches for resource management measurement of savings potential acceleration of platforms to address resource constraints to meeting business plan goals Improve Consistency of Product Management Support and Results
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8 Filling the Pipeline in 2015 – Portfolio Ready TechnologyDescriptionSavings Potential StatusReady for Portfolio SGS – Secondary glazing system Interior window insert attachment for commercial buildings 90-110 aMW (Market Potential) Developing test method with LBNL. Working with NFRC to include SGS in their new “attachments” standard. Working with Solarc and estimator to determine estimate of cost/savings (ROI). Early 2015. Products are available. Test method will be ready. Market characterization will be needed. High Performance Manufactured Homes Updated standard for manufactured homes with shell and HVAC upgrades 10-20 aMW (Market Potential) Upside potential if early retirement included Coordinated field testing with BPA to prove savings and understand manufacturer barriers. Federal standard process underway Could be ready in 2015 to help meet pipeline metric. Combo system space and water Split system HP with single outside unit that supports residential space and hot water 394 aMW (Technical Potential) Assume 70-100 aMW market potential Lab and field testing. Products are not yet available for sale in the NW. Expected availability Q2 2015 Initiative start likely in 2015. May be incorporated into DHP program. Commercial New Construction Integrated design for commercial buildings 57 aMW (Technical Potential) Program planning will start in 2015. Initiative start likely in Q2-3 2015.
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9 Filling the Pipeline in 2015 – Scanning Themes TechnologySectorDescriptionStatusReady for Portfolio Automated M&VAllNegawatt meter for residential, commercial and industrial. Supports financial transactions. Inventory of available products complete. Exploring ways to validate tools and test capabilities insitu This technology is not likely to be ready for 2-4 years. CO2 Heat PumpsAllCO2 as a refrigerant for heat pumps. Useful for water heating and space conditioning. Products are currently available for industrial. Commercial and residential are coming. First product for res likely in mid 2015. Commercial later. Internet of ThingsAllWhat happens when everything is web connected? Load growth is a possibility. Also enables zonal controls for energy savings. Standards are emerging IVP6, ANSI/CEA-2045, others. Testing needed to understand impact and to find ways to reduce negative impact. Sometime in cycle 5 LightingAllEfficient lighting and controlsLots of changes happening in lighting. Controls, more efficient products, etc. Test procedures and product validation needed to understand energy impact Likely to be incorporated into RWLR, TTTA or LLLC programs. Advanced HVACComSeparation of conditioned air from ventilation air. Proven to yield savings. Waiting for product options to field test. Likely 2016. Ag IrrigationAgExplore irrigation technologies that offer energy savings for large and small farms. Completing finally report on current ag program. Learnings will be applied to new effort. Likely 2016
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10 Lower Priority Scanning Projects TechnologySectorDescriptionStatus WindowsResidentialHigh performance <0.25 U value double and triple glazed windows. Market appears to be moving on its own. Lower priority unless new data becomes available. Efficient Power SuppliesIndustrialDIN mounted power supplies typically run at <20% load and at this level they are not efficient. Efficient product is available but not common in the market. 80 plus like program may be needed, but market may move on it is own. Extended Products for Motor Driven Systems Industrial / Commercial Product labeling for systems of pump, motor and controls that maximize efficiency within the required operating conditions. NEEA is participating in national workgroup, but not leading the effort. If an MT opportunity emerges, this may move up in priority. Home Energy Management ResidentialHome displays and feedback that lead to lower energy use by home owners. We are focusing our efforts on automated M&V instead of the display approach for now. Refrigeration Optimization IndustrialDefrost system design and operations for maximum efficiency Limited savings for a complex problem Business ITCommercialCloset data center energy managementNo clear MT opportunity yet. Evaporative RTUsCommercialIndirect / direct evaporative RTUs for replacement of DX systems. No new low cost product options to test. Building Operations Engineering Assessor CommercialBOC+, Bill Clumpner clone for assessing, planning and implementing building operation changes Very difficult to define the skill set, market opportunity, and MT approach. Automated M&V may help support this.
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11 Other Scanning Options TechnologySectorDescriptionStatus Smart ThermostatsResidential and Commercial Thermostats with occupancy sensing and control approaches that improve efficiency Lots of movement in the market. It isn’t clear the savings and MT opportunity. Automated M&V could support savings assessment. RTU ControlsCommercialControl optimization for RTUSThe advanced HVAC project looking at the separation of ventilation from condition air is our priority. Air Distribution SystemsIndustrial and open Commercial Space Fans and other methods of removing stratification of air within large, open and high bay spaces There may be an opportunity, but the savings and MT opportunity are not clear. Compressed Air Improvements IndustrialLeak detection, best practices and other technologies for improving the efficiency of compressed air systems. No one technology seems to be the solution. Small savings and complex approach.
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12 2015 - Challenges, Major risks & Contingencies Challenges, Opportunities and Issues Resource allocation needed to meet business plan goals Streamlined process needed for small savers (or remove small savers from portfolio) Forecasting methods needed to better reflect our work Leverage increased national investment in emerging technologies to help fill the pipeline. Regional market strategies and gas program have great potential, but could distract from meet our business plan goals if not managed well Major risks inherent in your plan: Scanning is focused on big themes which have significant potential but may not result in a manageable program. Contingencies and mitigation plans Focus on metrics for big theme research to determine if efforts have been successful. Develop high-level cycle 5 operations plan to coordinate activities needed to deliver business plan results.
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13 Success Factors and Support for Success Success Factors Prioritize our work together (resource the high priority programs and streamline the lower priority programs) Create extended NEEA operations plan Expand relationship building outside of NEEA Support Needed Communication support from stakeholder services and corporate communications Live our values / operational vision Focus on value delivery
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14 2015 Staffing Plan
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15 How do Product Managers Spend Their Time Percentage of time spent FTE Equiv. Current Portfolio 60%4.3 Scanning 20%1.4 Market Strategies 7%0.5 Communications 7%.5 Other 6%.4 Total 7
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16 2015 Budget Summary vs 2014 Forecast
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17 2015 Budget Scenario Planning
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