1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 January 28, 2010

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10AOSS 480 001 W10 On Line: 2008 Class2008 Class Reading –IPCC Working Group I: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC Working Group I: Summary for Policy Makers

3. Seminar Opportunity National Climate Seminar : Bard Center for Environmental PolicyNational Climate Seminar Bard Center for Environmental Policy –http://www.bard.edu/cep/ncs/http://www.bard.edu/cep/ncs/ –Bill Schlesinger: Ecology of a Hot Planet 3PM Eastern: Wednesday, January 27, 2010 712-432-3100; conference code, 253385

4. Projects: Step 1

5. Projects Think of project in the following ways: –You work as a congressional staffer or an agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.

6. Projects or think of project this way: –You are a small company of 3-5 people, working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy. Does it serve to address climate change?

7. Projects or maybe this way: –You work for a credit card company which for every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.

8. Projects or even this way: –You are in the Michigan state government, and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.

9. Projects The point --- There is a complex problem, and there are a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking.)

10. Think about Projects Today we will discuss project topics and think about teams …. –Are there groups that have self organized? What seems especially interesting and relevant (to me)? –The near-term solution space. What seems especially difficult to me –Carbon market versus carbon tax –Social justice as a driver of the problem versus a part of the problem

11. What can we do now? Some ideas –Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004 –Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006 –Carbon Mitigation InitiativeCarbon Mitigation Initiative

12. Class Projects Think about Projects for a while –The role of the consumer –Energy efficiency / Financing Policy –Science influence on policy, Measurements of carbon, influence –Role of automobile, transportation, life style –Water, fresh water, impact on carbon, –Geo-engineering, public education, emergency management, warning, –Water, insurance, Midwest development, Michigan, regional –Dawkins, socio-biology –What leads to a decision –What does it really mean in the village –Geo-engineering, urban sustainability –US Policy, society interest, K-12, education

13. Class Projects Think about Projects for a while some previous ideas –Impact of local climate change efforts –Important sources of scientific uncertainty and how they impact policy –Urban planning –Geo-engineering –Natural sinks in carbon market –Ecotourism –Ecosystem services and valuation –Evaluation of Kyoto Impact –Public opinion, comparative study, impact on what we do

14. Today Foundation of science of climate change (continued)

15. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class –Reference list from courseReference list from course Rood Blog Data Base Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

16. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation Which means lets build up –The observational foundation –The theory foundation –The validation foundation

17. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO 2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How? {

18. What do we see from the past 1000 years On time scales of, say, decades the CO 2 and T are not highly correlated. Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. –Regional changes, extremes? Recent changes in both T and CO 2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. –And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

19. Let’s Build up the Scientific Foundation Which means lets build up –The observational foundation –The theory foundation –The validation foundation

20. Conservation Principle

21. Conservation (continuity) principle There are certain parameters, for example, energy, momentum, mass (air, water, ozone, number of atoms, … ) that are conserved. –“classical” physics, we’re not talking about general or special relativity! –Simple stuff, like billiard balls hitting each other, ice melting Conserved? That means that in an isolated system that the parameter remains constant; it’s not created; it’s not destroyed. Isolated system? A collection of things, described by the parameter, that might interact with each other, but does not interact with other things. Nothing comes into or goes out of the system … or, perhaps, nothing crosses the boundary that surrounds the system.

22. Conservation (continuity) principle There are many other things in the world that we can think of as conserved. For example, money. –We have the money that we have. If we don’t spend money or make money then the money we have today is the same as the money we had yesterday. M today = M yesterday That’s not very interesting.

23. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday Living in splendid isolation

24. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + I - E Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Income Expense

25. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + N(I – E) And let’s get a car Expense per month = E Get a job Income per month = I N = number of months I = NxI and E= NxE Income Expense

26. Some algebra and some thinking M today = M yesterday + N(I – E) Rewrite the equation to represent the difference in money (M today - M yesterday ) = N(I – E) This difference will get more positive or more negative as time goes on. Saving money or going into debt. Divide both sides by N, to get some notion of how difference changes with time. (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – E

27. Some algebra and some thinking If difference does NOT change with time, then (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – E I = E Income equals Expense With a balanced budget, how much we spend, E, is related to how much we have: E = eM (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – eM

28. Some algebra and some thinking If difference does NOT change with time, then M = I/e Amount of money stabilizes Can change what you have by either changing income or spending rate (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – eM All of these ideas lead to the concept of a budget: What you have = what you had plus what you earned minus what you spent

29. Conservation Principle seems intuitive for money The conservation principle is posited to apply to energy, mass (air, water, ozone,... ), momentum. Much of Earth science, science in general, is calculating budgets based on the conservation principle –What is the balance or imbalance If balanced, then we conclude we have factual information on a quantity. If unbalanced, then there are deficiencies in our knowledge. Tangible uncertainties.

30. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + I - E Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Income Expense Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T

31. Some jargon, language Income is “production” is “source” Expense is “loss” is “sink” Exchange, transfer, transport all suggest that our “stuff” is moving around.

32. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy Assume that Energy is proportional to temperature, T, if the average temperature of the Earth is stable, it does not vary with time.

33. And the conservation of CO 2 Assume that total CO 2 is balanced. It sloshes between reservoirs and gets transported around.

34. Let’s think of this as a cycle CHANGE SOURCES SINKS EXCHANGE

35. Equilibrium and balance We often say that a system is in equilibrium if when we look at everything production = loss. There might be “exchanges” or “transfers” or “transport,” but that is like changing money between a savings and a checking account. –We are used to the climate, the economy, our cash flow being in some sort of “balance.” As such, when we look for how things might change, we look at what might change the balance.

36. Need to think about our “system” What about carbon dioxide?

37. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Important things in this figure.

38. System? When we look at the Earth and talk about climate change what is our system?

39. System? When we look at the Earth and talk about climate change what is our system? Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T)

40. System? But our focus is at the surface of the Earth. We change “stuff” in the system as a whole, and then we want to know how the balance of energy at the Earth’s surface will change. Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) In both of these cases our definition of system implicitly looks at the intersection of climate and people.

41. One of my rules In the good practice of science, of problem solving, to first draw a picture.

42. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy.

43. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect (Is this controversial?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

44. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect (Is this controversial?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. We are making the atmosphere “thicker.” This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

45. Some aspects of the greenhouse effect Greenhouse warming is part of the Earth’s natural climate system. –It’s like a blanket – it holds heat near the surface for a while before it returns to space. Water is the dominant greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide is a natural greenhouse gas. –We are adding at the margin – adding some blankets Or perhaps closing the window that is cracked open. N 2 0, CH 4, CFCs,... also important. But in much smaller quantities. –Molecule per molecule stronger than CO 2 We have been calculating greenhouse warming for a couple of centuries now.

46. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy If we change a greenhouse gas e.g. CO 2, we change the loss rate. For some amount of time we see that the Earth is NOT in balance, that is ΔT/Δt is not zero, temperature changes.

47. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy.

48. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changing a greenhouse gas changes this

49. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). What else could be happening in this system? This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

50. Conservation of Energy The heating could change. That is the sun, the distance from the sun,....

51. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changes in orbit or solar energy changes this Can we measure the imbalance when the Earth is not in equilibrium?

52. Still there are many unanswered questions We know that CO 2 in the atmosphere holds thermal energy close to the surface. Hence, more CO 2 will increase surface temperature. –Upper atmosphere will cool. –How will the Earth respond? Is there any reason for Earth to respond to maintain the same average surface temperature? Why those big oscillations in the past? –They are linked to solar variability. –Release and capture of CO 2 by ocean plausibly amplifies the solar oscillation. Solubility pump Biological pump What about the relation between CO 2 and T in the last 1000 years? –Look to T (temperature) variability forced by factors other than CO 2 Volcanic Activity Solar variability CO 2 increase Radiative forcing other than CO 2 ? –Other greenhouse gases –Aerosols (particulates in the atmosphere)

53. Radiative Balance of The Earth Over some suitable time period, say a year, maybe ten years, if the Earth’s temperature is stable then the amount of energy that comes into the Earth must equal the amount of energy that leaves the Earth. –Energy comes into the Earth from solar radiation. –Energy leaves the Earth by terrestrial (mostly infrared) radiation to space. (Think about your car or house in the summer.)

54. Radiation Balance Figure

55. Let’s build up this picture Follow the energy through the Earth’s climate. As we go into the climate we will see that energy is transferred around. –From out in space we could reduce it to just some effective temperature, but on Earth we have to worry about transfer of energy between thermal energy and motion of wind and water.

56. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). Welcome Back Radiative Balance. This is conservation of energy, which is present in electromagnetic radiation.

57. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? Energy is coming from the sun. Two things can happen at the surface. In can be: Reflected Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Or Absorbed

58. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? We also have the atmosphere. Like the surface, the atmosphere can: Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Reflect or Absorb

59. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? In the atmosphere, there are clouds which : Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Reflect a lot Absorb some

60. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? For convenience “hide” the sunbeam and reflected solar over in “RS” Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

61. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? Consider only the energy that has been absorbed. What happens to it? Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

62. Building the Radiative Balance Conversion to terrestrial thermal energy. 1) It is converted from solar radiative energy to terrestrial thermal energy. (Like a transfer between accounts) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

63. Building the Radiative Balance Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. 2) It is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. (Another transfer between accounts) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

64. Building the Radiative Balance Terrestrial energy is converted/partitioned into three sorts SURFACE 3) Terrestrial energy ends up in three reservoirs (Yet another transfer ) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS WARM AIR (THERMALS) PHASE TRANSITION OF WATER (LATENT HEAT) RADIATIVE ENERGY (infrared) It takes heat to Turn ice to water And water to “steam;” that is, vapor

65. Building the Radiative Balance Which is transmitted from surface to atmosphere SURFACE 3) Terrestrial energy ends up in three reservoirs Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS (THERMALS)(LATENT HEAT) (infrared) CLOUD

66. Building the Radiative Balance And then the infrared radiation gets complicated SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS (THERMALS)(LATENT HEAT) (infrared) CLOUD 1) Some goes straight to space 2) Some is absorbed by atmosphere and re-emitted downwards 3) Some is absorbed by clouds and re-emitted downwards 4) Some is absorbed by clouds and atmosphere and re-emitted upwards

67. Put it all together and this what you have got. The radiative balance

68. Thinking about the greenhouse A thought experiment of a simple system. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) 1)Let’s think JUST about the infrared radiation Forget about clouds for a while 2) More energy is held down here because of the atmosphere It is “warmer” 3) Less energy is up here because it is being held near the surface. It is “cooler”

69. Thinking about the greenhouse A thought experiment of a simple system. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) T effective 1)Remember we had this old idea of a temperature the Earth would have with no atmosphere. This was ~0 F. Call it the effective temperature. Let’s imagine this at some atmospheric height. 2) Down here it is warmer than T effective T > T effective 3) Up here it is cooler than T effective T < T effective

70. Thinking about the greenhouse Why does it get cooler up high? SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) 1) If we add more atmosphere, make it thicker, then 2) The part coming down gets a little larger. It gets warmer still. 3) The part going to space gets a little smaller It gets cooler still. The real problem is complicated by clouds, ozone, ….

71. So what matters? Things that change reflection Things that change absorption Changes in the sun If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface. THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

72. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

73. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Where absorption is important

74. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Where reflection is important

75. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Solar Variability

76. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Possibility of transport of energy down from the surface

77. From Warren Washington

78. Conservation equation Could you write the conservation equation, at least symbolically, for surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

79. Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, leads to making these fluids move. That is “weather” and ocean currents and the “general circulation.”

80. Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day –It is likely to change because we are changing the distribution of average heating

81. While Building the Radiative Balance Figure Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE 2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS 1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy.

82. Another important consideration. Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling SURFACE ATMOSPHERE CLOUD Equator (On average heating) North Pole (Cooling) South Pole (Cooling) Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes). Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.

83. Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface. Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD heat is moved to poles cool is moved towards equator This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important! This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed.

84. Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

85. Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles HURRICANES

86. Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

87. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

88. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Sun ATMOSPHERE LANDOCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Lean, J., Physics Today, 2005 SUN: Source of energy Generally viewed as stable Variability does have discernable signal on Earth Impact slow and small relative to other changes Lean: Living with a Variable Sun

89. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Atmosphere ATMOSPHERE Change CO2 Here LANDOCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN The Atmosphere: Where CO 2 is increasing from our emissions Absorption and reflection of radiative energy Transport of heat between equator and pole Weather: Determines temperature and rain What are the most important greenhouse gasses? Water (H 2 O) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 )

90. Cloudy Earth

91. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Cloud World ATMOSPHERE LANDOCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Cloud World: Very important to reflection of solar radiation Very important to absorption of infrared radiation Acts like a greenhouse gas Precipitation, latent heat Most uncertain part of the climate system. Reflecting Solar Cools Largest reflector Absorbing infrared Heats

92. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Land ATMOSPHERE LAND Change Land Use Here OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Land: Absorption of solar radiation Reflection of solar radiation Absorption and emission of infrared radiation Plant and animal life Impacts H 2 O, CO 2 and CH 4 Storage of moisture in soil CO 2 and CH 4 in permafrost Land where consequences are, first and foremost, realized for people. What happens to atmospheric composition if permafrost thaws? Can we store CO 2 in plants? Adaptability and sustainability?

93. CLOUD-WORLD Earth System: Ocean ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Ocean: Absorption of solar radiation Takes CO 2 out of the atmosphere Plant and animal life Impacts CO 2 and CH 4 Takes heat out away from surface Transport of heat between equator and pole Weather regimes: Temperature and rain What will the ocean really do? Will it absorb all of our extra CO 2 ? Will it move heat into the sub-surface ocean? Changes in circulation? Does it buy us time? Does this ruin the ocean? Acidification Doney: Ocean Acidification

94. Next time: Fundamental Science of Climate