1. 1.3 Energy security and the future Enquiry question: What might the world’s energy future be?

2. What students need to learn There is uncertainty over both global energy supply in terms of reserves (eg peak oil and gas) and demand (economic growth rates, conservation of resources, a switch to renewable sources). - Investigate a range of energy supply and demand, and economic growth projections to develop an awareness of uncertainty. There are different responses to increasing energy demands – such as ‘business as usual’ reliance on fossil fuels or the adoption of alternative sources such as nuclear, or wind power. Each has costs and benefits, such as future climate change, and local opposition. - Weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of contrasting energy options in terms of their technical feasibility, economics and environmental impacts, including waste products. Energy insecurity may lead to increased geopolitical tension and the potential for conflict, eg in the Middle East, or between gas consumers in Europe and producers in Russia, as consumers attempt to secure supplies. - Develop an awareness that striving for energy security within a ‘business as usual’ framework may increase the risk of geopolitical tension in production hotspots. Meeting future energy needs in developing, emergent and developed economies while avoiding serious environmental degradation requires up-scaling of radical new approaches (conservation, recycling, reliance on renewables, carbon credits and ‘green’ taxation) involving difficult choices. - Weigh up radical policies and investigate their sustainability as well as examine the attitudes of different players towards these alternative energy futures.

3. Energy Uncertainties There is an increasing realisation that any downturn in energy supplies could trigger an economic collapse. For instance, oil: There has been a massive increase in global oil consumption (including the emerging economies) We may have reached “Peak Oil” – this will lead to declining production and therefore rising prices. There is disagreement over ‘peak oil’ – some scientists say 2005, some 2015 and some 2020. As oil runs out in some places, production will be concentrated in a small number of (increasingly powerful) countries OPEC and Russia are therefore increasingly able to hold places to ‘ransom’

4. For each factor consider what the effect would be on global energy if (a) it went up, (b) it went down, (c) it stayed the same e.g. if China and India’s economies keep growing, slow down or stay the same

6. Responses to increasing energy demands 3 possible scenarios: 1)Business as usual (fossil fuels would remain dominant!) 2)Multi-energy solution 3)Energy conservation Briefly outline and evaluate each of these responses Pages 23-25 Edexcel Pages 40-49 Oxford

7. How energy insecurity might increase geopolitical tensions To be energy secure countries aim for the following: 1) Greater use of domestic sources 2) Diversification: reducing reliance on fossil fuels and maximising renewables. 3) Obtaining guarantees of imports and stable prices.( MOST CHALLENGING )

8. No.3 (stability of supply) is the greatest challenge Increasing competition exists between Producers and Consumers (mainly for oil and gas): Producers – use oil and gas as bargaining tools. International partnerships (e.g. OPEC) have massive power, controlling supply. Consumers- are at the mercy of the producers! Unless alternatives are used. High military tensions in areas of potential oil- related stress! (see fig 1.19 page 26)

9. Describe the pattern of stress points and US military aid/activity. Suggest reasons for this pattern(5)

10. Conflicts and Oil The majority of conflicts around energy are around oil and gas (areas of production and pathways). There has always been much speculation over the real reasons behind the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Would the US have been so interested in the plight of the Iraqis if Iraq grew carrots?

11. Case study: Tensions in Middle East (pages 42-45 Oxford book) Terrorism in Iraq Terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabia (24 feb 2006: attack on oil processing plant) Iraq and Iran: fight for control over oil? Was the Gulf war a war to protect supplies of oil? Iran: 3 rd largest oil reserves, 2 nd largest gas reserves. Strong anti-western, anti-israeli government. Russia: played ‘energy politics’ games!

12. OPEC and rising prices of oil (Oxford p43) OPEC wants to safeguard the interests of its members. Stable oils prices, steady income etc.. Rises in prices since 2002 were result of: -Increasing demand in China and India -OPEC’s reluctance to increase supply and risk price crash -Declining reserves -Improving world economies (RIC’s, NIC’s) increasing demand -Political instability: Middle East, Nigeria.

13. Alternatives to ‘business as usual’ Meeting Future Energy Needs World population is growing Traditionally low energy consumers are growing in their appetites World’s primary energy needs set to grow by 55% by 2030 Electricity consumption expected to double over next few decades IEA estimates that $22 trillion of new investment needed by 2030 Global challenge of climate change – solutions to energy needs should make this better NOT worse!

14. Two ways of doing this 1.‘Carrot and stick’ measures – emission controls, carbon trading and green taxation 2.Develop new and radical technologies that are sustainable and bring energy security

15. Stick and Carrot Emission controls - Kyoto protocol (Unit 1) Emissions trading (Unit 1) Green taxes – e.g. sliding scale of car tax in UK & congestion charges (Unit 1) Go back over these approaches (and others) that you discovered in Unit 1

16. Radical technologies Renewable technologies – offshore wind turbines, geothermal energy, tidal energy, biofuels, carbon storage (Unit 1) For each (carrot/stick and radical) you need to evaluate it in terms of its advantages/disadvantages and look at its sustainability Which do you think is the most promising? Why?

17. Use pages 28-32 Edexcel book. For each of the possible solutions 1 Line to describe it 1 advantage 1 disadvantage 1 line sustainability conclusion

18. Example exam questions: 1)Suggest how the distribution of major oil exporters and importers affects the energy security of some nations. (10) 2)The development of alternative energy sources is a possible response to future energy demand. Assess the possible costs and benefits of this approach. (15)