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Update on Real Estate Capital Markets-- Where is the Equity Investment Market Today? CREW Network: Investing in Your Professional Development Presenter : Lisa Campoli Executive Vice President & Managing Partner Colliers International
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Real Estate Capital Markets Update Lisa M. Campoli, Executive Vice President & Managing Partner July 19, 2012
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Webinar Agenda Big picture - global economic considerations Snapshot of today’s real estate capital markets Focus on U.S. equity trends Preferred regions and property types Current underwriting considerations
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Private Debt Public Debt Private Equity Public Equity Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Real Estate Capital Markets - $3.93 Trillion
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Private Investors Domestic Pension Funds REITS & C Corps Foreign Interests Life Ins. Cos. Inst’l OREO K E Y Private Investment Cos. Pension Funds REITs Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Equity Market - $1.15 Trillion
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Public REIT Offerings 2005-2011 (capital raised in billions) Source: NAREIT
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Commercial Banks CMBS Market Life Insurers REIT Unsecured Gov’t Credit Pension Funds K E Y Commercial Banks CMBS Life Insurers Source: Emerging Trends U.S. Debt Market - $2.78 Trillion
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CMBS Loan Performance by MSA
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Real Estate As An Investment Asset Class Why Invest in Real Estate? Institutional Investor Portfolio diversification Annual cash flow Risk-adjusted return (between stocks and bonds) Appreciation potential Inflation hedge Private Investor Value creation/capital appreciation Ability to leverage Annual cash flow Risk-adjusted return Inflation hedge Tax benefits
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Hold Vs. Sell Decision-Making Optimal time to sell is the convergence of three factors: Portfolio objectives are achieved Markets are peaking (capital and leasing markets) Property is peaking within its “life cycle”
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Demand by Property Type: Cap Rate Comparison
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Core Cap Rates Vs. Debt 200 bps 450 bps 487 bps
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Major Underwriting Issues Lease-up (rents and timing) Rent growth (3-5 year outlook) Renewal assumptions Capital expenses (base & leasing) Residual value (exit cap rate) Debt strategy Replacement cost comparison Value Per SF Appreciation potential
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Outlook for 2012 Capital demand will remain steady, but bi-furcated Sellers will be enticed by improved pricing Lenders will exit problems that were not re-worked Interest rates and cap rates are likely to remain low Stabilizing fundamentals will enhance outlook for NOI
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Thank you for attending UPDATE ON REAL ESTATE CAPITAL MARKETS – WHERE IS THE EQUITY INVESTMENT MARKET TODAY? Please check the CREW Network web site for future webinar schedules at www.crewnetwork.org under Eventswww.crewnetwork.org
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