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International Demand for U.S. Housing 2016 International Housing Association Meeting February 17, 2016, Washington, D.C. Scholastica (Gay) D. Cororaton Research Economist National Association of REALTORS®
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Outline of Presentation Size of purchases of foreign buyers in the U.S. Characteristics and preferences of foreign buyers Impact of global slowdown on foreign demand for U.S. properties
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Foreign Buyers: About Four Percent of U.S. Existing Home Sales
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Sales to Foreign Buyers : About 200,000 Sales Per Year* *Purchases made from April of previous year through March of current year.
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Resident buyers (Type A): 52 Percent Non-resident buyers (Type B): 48 Percent
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U.S. Existing Homes Became More Affordable to Foreign Buyers
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Foreign Buyers: Typically More Upscale than Domestic Buyers
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Non-resident Buyers Typically Make an All-Cash Purchase Source: RCI Survey
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Foreign Buyers Come From Across the Globe, Led by LatAm and Asian Buyers
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Top Buyers: China, Canada, Mexico, India, and U.K.
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Top Five Foreign Buyers
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Most Currencies Weakened Against the Dollar Except Chinese Yuan
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Chinese Foreign Buyers Typically Purchased at Higher Price Range
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Top Destinations: Florida, California, Texas, and Arizona
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Foreign Buyers: A Key Market in Florida
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Canadian Buyers Prefer FL, AZ, HI, CA
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Chinese Buyers Concentrated in the West Coast and Key Cities
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Indian Buyers Are More Dispersed
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Mexican Buyers Prefer TX, CA
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U.K. Buyers Tend to Purchase in FL, AZ, and Northeast
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Intended Use By Type of Foreign Buyer
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Foreign Buyers Tend to Purchase in Urbanized Areas
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Detached Single-family: 61 Percent vs. 80 Percent Nationally
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Headwinds Facing Non-resident Foreign Buyers in 2016 – Stronger dollar – Higher U.S house prices – Slower economic growth, especially in oil- producing countries: China, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia – Tighter monitoring of dollar outflows in China
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Currencies Have Lost Value Against the U.S. Dollar
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Median Price of a U.S. Existing Home Is Back to Pre-Housing Crisis Level
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Slowdown in Economic Growth
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Tighter Monitoring of Capital Outflows
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New Regulations Governing Individual Foreign Exchange Transactions Circular of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Further Improving the Administration of Individual Foreign Exchange – individual foreign exchange monitoring system launched Jan 1, 2016 – Individuals not allowed to evade purchase quota ($50,000 per year per person) ; those individuals who borrow another individual’s quota will be put on watch list for the current year and two consecutive years – Banks to report any quota evasion within 20 days – Banks to assign technicians to the individual foreign exchange business monitoring system
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Conclusions Foreign buyers represent a niche market Foreign buyers come from across the globe and purchase in many states, but transactions still concentrated in a few countries and in a few states Slowdown in growth, slump in oil prices, strong dollar, and tighter monitoring of capital flows in China likely to ease housing demand by foreign buyers in 2016-2017.
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International Demand for U.S. Housing 2016 International Housing Association Meeting February 17, 2016, Washington, D.C.
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