1. Developing a Methodology for Ensuring Access of Low-Income Students in Colorado The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems August 18, 2009 1

2. Guiding Principles As simple and straight forward as possible. Protect current levels of service to low- and low-to-middle income students (could easily be adjusted to move the state to greater levels of service). The expected levels of service to financially needy students (for institutions) should reflect family incomes in the counties they serve. The model must be able to be updated annually. 2

3. Percent of First-Time Students Receiving Pell Grants at Public Institutions and Median Family Income* (1999-00) Source: NCES, IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; U.S. Census Bureau * Adjusted to 2007 $ using the CPI AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY US 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 40,00047,50055,00062,50070,00077,50085,000 Median Family Income % Pell 3

4. Percent of First-Time Students Receiving Pell Grants at Public Institutions and Median Family Income (2006-07) Source: NCES, IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; U.S. Census Bureau AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY US 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 40,00047,50055,00062,50070,00077,50085,000 Median Family Income % Pell 4

5. AlabamaIowaArizonaMassachusettsNew MexicoColoradoCaliforniaFloridaOregonWyomingKansasAlaskaIdahoNew YorkNew JerseyNevadaPennsylvaniaMontanaMarylandDelawareHawaiiSouth DakotaUtahNew HampshireVirginiaMaineVermontNorth DakotaRhode Island Percent Change in First-Time Students Receiving Pell Grants at Public Institutions from 1999-00 to 2006-07 Source: NCES, IPEDS Student Financial Aid Survey; U.S. Census Bureau 5

6. Median Family Income, 2007 Colorado = 67,069 Source: U.S. Census Bureau High – Pitkin Low - Crowley 6

7. First-Time Undergraduates Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Public High School Graduates by County of Origin (2006-08 Annual Average) Colorado = 40.0% Source: Colorado Department of Higher Education. Colorado Department of Education. 7

8. Counties in the Bottom Third of Family Income and the Bottom Third of College-Going Rates Directly Out of High School Chaffee Rio Blanco Garfield Delta Mesa San Miguel Dolores Montezuma La Plata Hinsdale Lincoln Elbert Douglas Summit GilpinWashington Larimer Weld Adams Alamosa Arapahoe Archuleta Baca Bent Boulder Cheyenne Clear Creek Conejos Costilla Crowley Custer Denver Eagle El Paso Fremont Grand Gunnison Huerfano Jackson Jefferson Kiowa Kit Carson Lake Las Animas Logan Mineral Moffat Montrose Morgan Otero Ouray Park Phillips Pitkin Prowers Pueblo Rio Grande Routt Saguache San Juan Sedgwick Teller Yuma 8

9. Difference Between the Actual and Expected Percentage of First-Time Enrollment of Pell Recipients – Relative to the Income Levels of the Counties Served Sources: Colorado Department of Higher Education, U.S. Census Bureau (ACS), NCHEMS Serving more low-income students than expected (assuming low-income students should be distributed equally across all types of institutions). Serving fewer low-income students than expected. These institutions serve more than half of the first-time undergraduate students in the state (58%). -9.2% -9.1% -8.3% -6.8% -6.6% -3.7% -2.3% -2.0% -0.5% 0.4% 1.9% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 4.9% 8.0% 10.5% 10.7% 12.4% 12.5% 17.6% 20.1% 21.0% 22.5% 25.1% 28.8% 37.7% -20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50% Colorado School of Mines Colorado State University University of Colorado – Boulder University of Northern Colorado Fort Lewis College Colorado Mountain College Western State College University of Colorado – Colorado Springs Front Range Community College Metropolitan State College of Denver Red Rocks Community College Mesa State College UC at Denver and Health Sciences Center Arapahoe Community College Colorado Northwestern Community College Colorado State University-Pueblo Pikes Peak Community College Northeastern Junior College Aims Community College Community College of Aurora Otero Junior College Lamar Community College Adams State College Trinidad State Junior College Community College of Denver Pueblo Community College Morgan Community College 9

10. Recommended Next Steps Develop a strategy to ensure that underserved areas of the state are better served. Use the current data to set targets for each institution – maintain for some, improve for others. Incorporate (using the same approach) transfer from two-to-four year institutions – ensuring that transfer rates of low income students don’t erode (separate analysis from first-time entering students). CDHE should develop a few persistence and completion metrics for low income students to ensure that success rates of financially needy students improve (data are available to do this). Figure out a way to get FASFA information (at least the short form) for all students. 10

11. Patrick J. Kelly The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems patrick@nchems.org (303) 497 -0307 11