1. We take a multi-period model of childhood investment, based on Cuhna, Heckman et al (2005), which distinguishes early from late investments. In particular, human capital is formed through today’s investments, but returns to the investment in later periods will be higher, the higher are investments in period one (complementarity argument). Thus there may be “critical periods” where if investment is missed, future investments have lower returns, giving us a testable assumption about the shock’s permanent impact during the critical period of 12-36 months (as evidenced by the medical literature). *catherine.porter@qeh.ox.ac.uk Catherine Porter *, Prof. Stefan Dercon (supervisor) Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford. Long Term Impact of Childhood Malnutrition: Evidence from the Ethiopian Famine of 1984 Most, but not all of the villages in the sample were affected, and there is considerable heterogeneity in the amount of suffering. Around three quarters of households had to cut back on quantities of food consumed, and of those, a third ate only one meal a day. www.csae.ox.ac.uk In 1984, the world was shocked at the scale of a famine in Ethiopia that caused up to a million deaths. But what of the survivors? This paper estimates the long-term impact of the famine ten years later, on young men and women who experienced this severe shock as small children during the crisis. Introduction Background to the Famine 1983-85 Table 1. Relative heights of drought affected children ten years after the famine Estimation Results: Ten years on Long run impact of the famine: Conclusions In addition to mortality during the crisis, we find that a cohort of children suffered a serious nutritional insult with long term effects. Ten years on from the drought, the difference is 4.6cm- no evidence of catchup. Also, the drought shock interacted with sex showed no significant results (surprise, given descriptive statistics) Children affected by the famine are also less likely to have married, migrated or set up a new household. Other studies of this type typically also find a loss of lifetime earnings and health problems in later life. Next steps: twenty years on, children who were 12-36 months old and suffered in the famine are 4cm smaller than their cohort average. Did ERHS villagers recover as well as Birhan Woldu? Characterising a simple model of childhood investment t statistics in parentheses: + p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01 Notes: "Drought " specifically refers to the household indicating that 1983-5 were the worst years when asked about a 20 year history of vulnerability. "born in 84" indicates child was born in 1984 "young child" indicates child was born in 1981-83, therefore aged 12-36 months in famine "older child" indicates child was born in 1978-82, therefore aged 4-7 years in famine Sample for (1) & (2) is children aged 7-15 in round 6 of the ERHS survey (2004). Sample for (3) & (4) is young adults aged 17-25 in round 6 of the ERHS survey (2004). Household controls include height of father, household size, main activity and crop of household, ethnicity, birth order.