1. assignable variation Deviations with a specific cause or source. forecast bias or assignable variation or MSE? Click here for Hint

2. Black Swan An incident of extreme consequence, unexpected or considered highly improbable. Black Swan or naïve forecast or error? Click here for Hint

3. causal modeling Predicting an outcome by identifying its relationship with one or other factors. extrapolation or seasonality or causal modeling? Click here for Hint

4. coefficient of determination Proportion of variation in a dependent variable that is explained by a regression model. correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? Click here for Hint

5. correlation coefficient A measure of the strength of any linear relationship between two sets of observations. correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? Click here for Hint

6. crowdsourcing Crowd outsourcing; combining independent efforts of many people to accomplish a task. crowdsourcing or Delphi method or expert opinion panel? Click here for Hint

7. cyclic variation Seasonality with a cycle time longer than 1 year; generally associated with economic influences on time series data. exogenous variation or cyclic variation or time series decomposition? Click here for Hint

8. Delphi method A qualitative forecasting technique in which experts achieve consensus through a blind process via a facilitator. Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? Click here for Hint

9. dependent variable An outcome of interest influenced by one or more factors. seasonality or regression analysis or dependent variable? Click here for Hint

10. error The difference between an observed value and a predicted value. natural variation or forecasting or error? Click here for Hint

11. exogenous variation A non-repeating deviation in a time series created by a distinct, identifiable external influence. forecast bias or assignable variation or exogenous variation? Click here for Hint

12. expert opinion panel A small group of highly knowledgeable people who develop prediction through discussion and consensus. Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? Click here for Hint

13. extrapolation Projecting existing data into the future. time series decomposition or extrapolation or time series? Click here for Hint

14. forecasting Predicting future events. forecasting or time series or regression analysis? Click here for Hint

15. forecast bias A tendency to create errors that are predominantly positive or negative. error or trend or forecast bias? Click here for Hint

16. independent variable A factor used to predict an outcome of interest. independent variable or regression analysis or simple exponential smoothing? Click here for Hint

17. jury of executive opinion An expert panel composed of managers. Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? Click here for Hint

18. known unknown A source of uncertainty known to a decision maker, usually evident in past experience or data. known unknown or unknown unknown or trend? Click here for Hint

19. mean absolute deviation (MAD) An average of the absolute values of a set of forecast errors. MAPE or MAD or ME? Click here for Hint

20. mean absolute percent error (MAPE) Average of the absolute values of a set of percent errors. MAPE or percent error or MSE? Click here for Hint

21. mean error (ME) An average of forecast errors; useful for indicating forecast bias. MAPE or MAD or ME? Click here for Hint

22. mean squared error (MSE) An average of the squared values of a set of forecast errors. MSE or MAD or ME? Click here for Hint

23. naïve forecast Assuming a future value equals the most recent actual value available. time series or naïve forecast or trend? Click here for Hint

24. natural variation The randomness inherent, in a process, also known as random variation. exogenous variation or natural variation or error? Click here for Hint

25. percent error Forecast error divided by the corresponding actual value. forecast bias or MAPE or percent error? Click here for Hint

26. planning horizon The farthest point in the future considered in decision making. planning horizon or known unknown or extrapolation? Click here for Hint

27. regression analysis Using mathematical relationships between two or more variables to predict future values. correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? Click here for Hint

28. responsiveness The degree to which a technique modifies forecasts to reflect recent changes in past data. tracking signal or forecast bias or responsiveness? Click here for Hint

29. seasonal relatives A set of numerical values that describe a seasonal pattern. time series or seasonal relatives or exogenous variation? Click here for Hint

30. seasonality A repeating pattern. seasonal relatives or seasonality or trend? Click here for Hint

31. simple exponential smoothing Predicting a future value by combining the previous prediction and some portion of the error in that prediction. regression analysis or time series or simple exponential smoothing? Click here for Hint

32. simple moving average Predicts a value by averaging a fixed number of most-recent actual values. regression analysis or time series or simple moving average? Click here for Hint

33. time series Values observed in chronological order. time series or seasonality or planning horizon? Click here for Hint

34. time series decomposition Modeling observed values based on identifiable component influences. time series decomposition or time series or regression analysis? Click here for Hint

35. tracking signal Ratio of the sum of a set of forecast errors over the MAD of that forecast. MAPE or weighted moving average or tracking signal? Click here for Hint

36. trend A sustained period of growth or decline. known unknown or tracking signal or trend? Click here for Hint

37. unknown Uncertainty omitted from planning because the decision maker is unaware of its presence. known unknown or unknown unknown or error? Click here for Hint

38. weighted moving average Predicts a value by calculating a weighted average of a fixed number of most-recent actual values. MAPE or weighted moving average or simple exponential smoothing? Click here for Hint