1. Sustainable Solutions For PEACE AND THREATS TO HUMAN SECURITY BY DR. TAYO ADULOJU Director, Public Sector Practice

2. National Planning Commission freedom from want freedom from fear “insuring freedom from want and freedom from fear for all persons is the best path to tackle the problem of global insecurity” UNDP 1994 Human Development Report ORIGINS

3. National Planning Commission Human Security and Peace form the fundamentals of the preferred Ideal Human Condition and the quest for societies to achieve them will determine their overall sustainability. Dr. Mahbub ul Haq first drew global attention to the concept of human security in the United Nations Development Programme's 1994 Human Development Report and sought to influence the UN's 1995 World Summit on Social Development in Copenhagen. The UNDP's 1994 Human Development Report's definition of human security argues that the scope of global security should be expanded to include threats in seven areas ORIGINS Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

4. National Planning Commission SUSTAINABLE PEACE SOLUTIONS RELATES TO KEY HUMAN SECURITY THREATS THAT UNDERMINE FREEDOM FROM WANT AND FREEDOM FROM FEAR Economic security ECONOMIC SECURITY REQUIRES AN ASSURED BASIC INCOME FOR INDIVIDUALS, USUALLY FROM PRODUCTIVE AND REMUNERATIVE WORK OR A FUNDED SOCIAL SAFETY NET. Food security FOOD SECURITY REQUIRES THAT ALL PEOPLE AT ALL TIMES HAVE BOTH PHYSICAL AND ECONOMIC ACCESS TO BASIC FOOD. Health security HEALTH SECURITY AIMS TO GUARANTEE A MINIMUM PROTECTION FROM DISEASES AND UNHEALTHY LIFESTYLES.

5. National Planning Commission SUSTAINABLE PEACE SOLUTIONS RELATES TO KEY HUMAN SECURITY THREATS THAT UNDERMINE FREEDOM FROM WANT AND FREEDOM FROM FEAR Environmental security ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AIMS TO PROTECT PEOPLE FROM THE SHORT- AND LONG- TERM RAVAGES OF NATURE, MAN-MADE THREATS IN NATURE, AND DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT. Personal security PERSONAL SECURITY AIMS TO PROTECT PEOPLE FROM PHYSICAL VIOLENCE, WHETHER FROM THE STATE OR EXTERNAL STATES, FROM VIOLENT INDIVIDUALS AND SUB-STATE ACTORS, FROM DOMESTIC ABUSE, OR FROM PREDATORY ADULTS. Community security COMMUNITY SECURITY AIMS TO PROTECT PEOPLE FROM THE LOSS OF TRADITIONAL RELATIONS HIPS AND VALUES AND FROM SECTARIAN AND ETHNIC VIOLENCE. Political security POLITICAL SECURITY IS CONCERNED WITH WHETHER PEOPLE LIVE IN A SOCIETY THAT HONOURS THEIR BASIC HUMAN RIGHTS.

6. National Planning Commission ORIGINS

7. National Planning Commission HUMAN SECURITY AND NATIONAL SECURITY SHOULD BE AND OFTEN ARE MUTUALLY REINFORCING. BUT SECURE STATES DO NOT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN SECURE PEOPLES. CORRELATION TO SUSTAINABLE PEACE AND NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONAL SECURITY DEFENSE SECURITY INTERNAL (HOMELAND) SECURITY HUMAN SECURITY DIMENSIONS SPHERE OF PEACE

8. SAMPLING OF HUMAN SECURITY THREATS AND HARMS (CHRONOLOGY OF HARMS STORY BOARDS) Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

9. National Planning Commission Peace building is an intervention that is designed to prevent the start or resumption of violent conflict by creating a sustainable peace. Peace building activities address the root causes or potential causes of violence, create a societal expectation for peaceful conflict resolution and stabilize society politically and socioeconomically. Peace building by design is mapped to the Threats and Risks to Peace itself “PEACE AS A STATE OF AFFAIRS PRECEDES PEACE AS A STATE OF MIND” CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ, 1834

10. Security Threats Line of Prevention (Allocation of Resources ) Preventive Actions Reactive Actions Oil Spillage Ethnic Conflicts and Violence Low Environmental Remediation High Environmental Degradation Loss of Livelihoods High Unemployment Rate Growing Communal Distrust Increase in Cultism Proliferation of small arms and light weapons Breakdown of Social Justice Structures Increase Political Violence Increase Gang Violence Oil and Gas Asset Vandalism Niger Delta Economic Destabilization Niger Delta Militancy Corruption Oil Theft Environmental Activism Suppression NIGER-DELTA INSURGENCY AT 2007 STORYBOARD: WHEN A BROADER SET OF STAKEHOLDERS DO NOT CREATE A ROBUST COOPERATION AND PROBLEM SOLVING FRAMEWORK TO DO SOMETHING Unsustainable Legal Framework for Oil and Gas Destruction of critical national infrastructure Oil and Gas Industry Revenue decline NEW CONSEQUENCES

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12. Security Threats Line of Prevention (Allocation of Resources ) Preventive Actions Reactive Actions NORTH-EASTERN NIGERIA SUSTAINABILITY AT 2014 STORYBOARD: WHEN A BROADER SET OF STAKEHOLDERS DO NOT CREATE A ROBUST COOPERATION AND PROBLEM SOLVING FRAMEWORK TO DO SOMETHING Security Threats Preventive Actions Reactive Actions Desertification Increase In Global Terrorism Movement Low Environmental Remediation Elimination of Grazing Belts and Lands Loss of Livelihoods High Migration of Herdsmen Southward Reduction in Arable Land Increase in Herdsmen/Settler Clashes Proliferation of small arms and light weapons Growth of Almajeri Population Decrease in Education Security Increase Radicalization Extrajudicial Killing Socio-Economic Detsabilization of North Eastern Region Rise of North- East Insurgency Corruption Increase in Herdsmen/ Settler Clashes Elimination of Fish Population Reduction in Volume of Livestock Drying Up of Lake Chad Reduction in Border Security Increase in Vulnerable Population Access to Radical Militia Training and Teaching Increase in Armed Robberies Mass Atrocities Escalation Destruction of critical national infrastructure NEW CONSEQUENCES

13. “ Intelligence is the soul of all public business “ - DANIEL DEFOE (1704)

14. National Planning Commission LACK OF EFFECTIVE COOPERATION FRAMEWORK FOR CONTROLLING THREATS; LACK OF EFFECT HUMAN SECURITY THREAT INTELLIGENCE, DATA GATHERING AND ANALYTICS FOR ROBUST POLICY AND STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING; SYSTEMIC DISCONNECT BETWEEN EXISTING DATA AND INTELLIGENCE POOLS AND OPERATORS IN THE NIGERIAN SPACE; WEAK INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR HUMAN SECURITY THREAT EARLY WARNING SIGNALS, ESCALATION, RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS AND CAPABILITIES; WEAK FEEDBACK ON IMPACT REPORTING OF HUMAN SECURITY THREAT REDUCTION. HUMAN SECURITY CONTROLS THAT HAVE FAILED

15. SAMPLING BEST PRACTICES FOR SUSTAINABLE PEACE AND HUMAN SECURITY Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

16. National Planning Commission Mobilize Stakeholders for Broad Based Action And Review Progress Organize Stakeholders Around Threat Groupings And Priorities Organize Solutions and Structure around Threat Groupings SUSTAINABLE PEACE AND HUMAN SECURITY Map and Scope the Threats Intelligence and Data Gathering Threat Severity Framework Impact Reporting and Horizon Scanning Framework Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Execution Management Framework Stakeholder Accountability Framework for Action on Threat Reduction Programme Level Logical Framework: Objectives to Impact Fact-Based Threat Reduction Solution Design Resourcing Framework Communication Framework Cooperation Framework Analytics and Trend Coupling and Pattern Recognition Threat Groupings And Priorities WE ARE NOW SEEING A MORE RISK BASED APPROACH TO MANAGING AND REDUCING THREATS TO PEACE AND HUMAN SECURITY SUCCESS CASE: GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE TO EBOLA EPIDEMIC

17. POINTS OF EMINENT THREATS : SOME APPLICATIONS TO STORY BOARD CASES Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group

18. National Planning Commission TERRORISM HERDSMEN RELATED VIOLENCE NIGER DELTA MILITANCY VANDALISATION TO NATIONAL CRITICAL ASSETS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

19. National Planning Commission “At the heart of a new regulatory craftsmanship lies the ability to pick important problems and fix them” Malcolm K. Sparrow, Author of Character of Harms, the Regulatory Craft and Harvard Professor

20. THANK YOU Presentation by Dr. Tayo Aduloju - Workforce Group