1. Fruit trees new settlement Coastal mangrove forests depressi on area Rained paddy rice old settlement Canal, river Irrigated paddy rice forest Sea Aqua culture STUDYING THE EFEECTS OF HYDROPOWER DAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON LAND USE AND WATER USE– A COMPARISON BETWEEN COUNTRIES IN THE MEKONG RIVER BASIN 26/2/2013 Tham Hong Duong, Open University in HCMC, Email: tham.dh@ou.edu.vn Introduction (2) METHODOLOGY (3) SELECTED DATA TO BE ANALYSED (5) CONCLUSION Mekong Environtmental Symposium Ho Chi Minh City, March 5-7, 2013 THAILAND CAMBODIA LAOS VIETNAM rsrvoirghgemitcatchmntrainfallFlowEvaporunoffdeforest Lao451.9317.4020200069527072000129.4 Thailand1144351.30184000148256040700515.3 Cambodia 41522.70155000181286025550131.4 Vietnam480176.90650005166015350137 (MRC, IPCC, IRC, WB, ADB…) Countries in LMB per capita, in Ton CO 2 eqv ; 2000-2005 latest data (by WRI,2009) Average rainfall, mm (IMC,1988) Average flow from area, m 3 /s (from IPCC, COP8, MRC) Area of reservoir associated with dams in catchment AREA OF DEFORESTATION EVAPORATION RUNOFF (4) RESULTS [1] ChuThaiHoanh (2000) Water, Climate, Food and Environment under the climate change, final report MRC, 2000 [2] ChuThaiHoanh, Han Guttmans, Peter Droogers, and Jeroen Aerts, (2003) “Water, Climate Food Environment in Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia”, ADAPT Mekong final report, June 2003 [3] Mekong River Commission (2005) Overview of the Hydrology of the Mekong Basin. Vientiane: Mekong River Commission. [4] Mekong River Basin Hydropower, website http://en.wikipedia.org/Mekong_River_Basin_Hydropower ;http://en.wikipedia.org/Mekong_River_Basin_Hydropower [5] So Kazama, Masaki Sawamoto and Nmus Bandara Nawarathna, Simple analysis on future water resource in Mekong Basin, [6] Mahesh Pathak, (2010), Climate change: Uncertainty for hydropower development in Nepal, journal of Hydro, issue No. 6, January 2010. [7] Atshshi et al (2007), Estimating global climate change impacts on hydropower projects: application in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam, http://www.thefreelibrary.com/ http://www.thefreelibrary.com/ [8] Evelyn Goh (n/a) China in the Mekong River Basin: The Regional security Implications of resource development on the Lancang Jiang, [9] Patrick McCully (2002) Flooding the land, Warming the earth, document of International River network [10] Kristensen, J., (2001) Food security and Development in the LMB – A challenge for MRC, Asia and Pacific Forum on Poverty. CLIMATE CHANGES CAUSE: REFERENCE  WATER SHORTAGE CAN BE EVALUATED FROM RUNOFF, RAINFALL AND MANY OTHER CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTED FACTORS WITHIN SUBREGION.  HYDROPOWER DAM, COMBINED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE TRIGGERS MORE NEGATIVE IMPACTS TO DOWNSTREAM COUNTRIES IN A TREND WHERE WATER SHORTAGE IS MOST SERIOUS  THE MORE UPSTREAM, THE MORE LAND-RELATED PROBLEMS ARE; THE MORE DOWNSTREAM, THE MORE WATER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE GHG EMISSION CLIMATE CHANGE THERE ARE SEVEN SUB- REGIONS IN LOWER MEKONG BASIN (LMRB) DAMS IN MAINSTREAM LAO: 5 (OUT OF 9 ) THAILAND: 4 CAMBODIA: 2 VIETNAM: 2 4 dams 11 dams CHINA: 8 DAMS 3 dams 2 dams HYDROPOWER DAMS UM NH EH KP LL SU MD THIS PAPERS AIMS AT STUDYING THE CORRELATION BETWEEN TIME-VARIANT PARAMETERS REGARDING TO IMPACTS OF HYDROPOWER DAMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON LAND USE AND WATER USE OF COUNTRIES IN LMRB, I.E LAO, THAI, CAMBODIA, AND VIETNAM. (1) PROBLEM STATEMENT RUNOFF DECREASES HYDROPOWER DAMS CAUSE: DATA STANDING FOR IMPACTS OF HYDROPOWER DAM CONSTRUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ARE: SKY : PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL, EVAPORATION, TEMPERATURE…, LAND : AREA OF CATCHMENT, AREA OF DEFORESTATION, AREA OF RESERVOIRS… WATER : HYDROLOGICAL RUNOFF, FLOW CHARGE … ASSUMPTION WAS THAT THESE GROUPS OF DATA WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH STATUS OF RIPARIAN COUNTRIES LOCATED IN UPSTREAM COUNTRIES (LAO THAI) TO DOWNSTREAM COUNTRIES (CAMBODIA, VIETNAM). DATA COLLECTED FOR A DEFINITE PERIOD WERE TABULATED AND ANALYSED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSE IN THE HOPE OF REVEALING SOME CORRELATION BETWEEN FACTORS AS INDICATORS OF EFFECTS OF BOTH DAM CONSTRUCTION WORKS AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS OF THESE COUNTRIES. * CHANGE THE REGIME OF FLOW * LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY * LESS FISHES & SEDIMENT * RESETTLE * RESERVOIR-INDUCED-SEISMICITY (RIS) * EXTREME WEATHER, DROUGHT … * FLOOD (MEKONG DELTA – WET SEASON) * WATER QUALITY DECLINES & SHORTAGE * AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY DECREASES * SALINE INTRUSION (MEKONG DELTA – DRY MONTHS) SALINE INTRUSION BiỂN ĐÔNG AREA OF WATER SURFACE DEFORESTATION AREA EVAPORATION GHG PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RUNOFF DISCHARGE HYDROPOWER DAMS LAOSTHAILAND CAMBODIA VIETNAM AREA OF CATCHMENT, WATER SURFACE AREA OF RESERVOIR, AREA OF DEFORESTATION, GHG EVAPORATION, PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL, RUNOFF, DISCHARGE WILL SELECTED, CORRELATION BETWEEN THEM TO BE ANALYSED TO ANSWER THE QUESTION : WILL WATER USE BE SHORTED AS INCREASING DEMAND FROM UPSTREAM TO DOWNSTREAM ? HOW ABOUT IT WHEN COMBINED WITH OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS RESERVOIR, CATCHMENT AREA… HCMC OPEN UNIVERSITY LAND & WATER USE DATA ANALYSIS