1. The effects of using Facebook and Twitter on candidates’ electoral success The case of the German Federal Election 2013 Joss Roßmann, Tobias Gummer, & Stephen Quinlan GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences General Online Research (GOR16) 02-04 March 2016, HTW Dresden, Germany

2. Internet & Online Campaigning  Obama‘s campaigns 2008 & 2012 as widely cited examples of successful online campaigning (e.g., Jungherr 2014)  Stimulated the use of social media (e.g., YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter) in online campaigns in many countries …  … as well as reserach on their use in campaigning (e.g., Dolezal 2015; Kruikemeier 2014; Lassen & Brown 2011; Vergeer & Hermans 2013)  Social media have received increasing attention in the German Federal Elections 2009 & 2013 2

3. Social Media & Electoral Success  Personalization (Vergeer et al. 2013)  Interactivity (Kruikemeier 2014)  Network effects (e.g., retweets)  Gatekeeper (Jürgens & Jungherr 2011)  Multiplicators  Opinon leader (Karlsen 2015)  Mass media (Vergeer et al. 2013) 3

4. Social Media Use in Germany  Twitter: Very limited coverage in Germany (Busemann 2013)  2013 ≈ 3.9 m user (7% of online population)  Large differences in usage across age groups  14-29 years = 14%  Low intensity of usage & passive use (Busemann 2013)  Facebook: Larger coverage among voters in Germany (Busemann 2013)  2013 ≈ 23 m user (~41% of online pop.)  Higher intensity of usage compared to Twitter 4

5. Research Question  What are the effects of the use of Facebook and Twitter by candidates in the 2013 German national election on their electoral success? 5

6. Data  Candidates of the most relevant parties: CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, GREEN party, LEFT party, & PIRATES  Data  GESIS project on the use of Twitter & Facebook (ZA5973)  N = 2,345  Candidate survey of the GLES 2013 (ZA5716)  Response rate = 41%, N = 1,000 (complete Interviews)  Bundeswahlleiter: Official data on the election results  Vote share for direct candidates (1 st vote) and parties (2 nd vote) on the level of electoral districts  Elected candidates (direct & party lists) 6

7. Election results 7 DV1: Elected DV2: Share of 1 st vote

8. Direct and List Seats in the German Federal Election 2013 8 Source: „Direktmandate nach Partei und Vorsprung – Bundestagswahl 2013, endgültiges Ergebnis“ retrieved from wahlatlas.net. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons. Source: Bundeswahlleiter (http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/)

9. Twitter usage 9

10. Facebook usage 10

11. Results 11 p < 0.05

12. Results 12

13. Results 13 p < 0.10

14. Results 14 p > 0.10

15. Conclusions  Large variation in the use of Twitter and Facebook across parties and types of candidature  No or very limited effects of Twitter use on electoral success  rather weak evidence for effects of Facebook use  Normalization of online campaigning  Twitter and Facebook have become essential means of professional (and personalized) campaigning by the candidates  Party affilation, budget, incumbent bonus 15

16. Thank you for your attention! 16

17. References Busemann, Katrin. 2013. Wer nutzt was im Social Web? Media Perspektiven, 2013(7-8): 391-399. Dolezal, Martin. 2015. Online Campaigning by Austrian Political Candidates: Determinants of Using Personal Websites, Facebook, and Twitter. Policy & Internet, 7(1): 103-119. Gibson, Rachel K. und McAllister, Ian. 2015. Normalising or Equalising Party Competition? Assessing the Impact of the Web on Election Campaigning. Political Studies, 63(3): 529-547. Jungherr, Andreas. 2014. The Role of the Internet in Political Campaigns in Germany. German Politics: 1-8. Jürgens, Pascal und Jungherr, Andreas. 2011. Wahlkampf vom Sofa aus: Twitter im Bundestagswahlkampf 2009. In: Eva Johanna Schweitzer und Steffen Albrecht (Eds.), Das Internet im Wahlkampf, S. 201-225. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Karlsen, Rune. 2015. Followers are Opinion Leaders: The Role of People in the Flow of Political Communication on and beyond Social Networking Sites. European Journal of Communication, 30(3): 301-318. Kruikemeier, Sanne. 2014. How Political Candidates Use Twitter and the Impact on Votes. Computers in Human Behavior, 34: 131-139. Lassen, David S. und Brown, Adam R. 2011. Twitter: The Electoral Connection? Social Science Computer Review, 29(4): 419-436. Vergeer, Maurice und Hermans, Liesbeth. 2013. Campaigning on Twitter: Microblogging and Online Social Networking as Campaign Tools in the 2010 General Elections in the Netherlands. Journal of Computer- Mediated Communication, 18(4): 399-419. Vergeer, Maurice, Hermans, Liesbeth und Sams, Steven. 2013. Online Social Networks and Micro-Blogging in Political Campaigning: The Exploration of a New Campaign Tool and a New Campaign Style. Party Politics, 19(3): 477-501.