1. US relations with China: Balance or Integrate? Jonathan Schwartz, Ph.D. Professor of Political Science & Asian Studies SUNY New Paltz

2. How we will proceed Identify the Question Discuss Theory Compare the US & China on relevant indicators Identify interests Consider US options Discuss

3. Our question: What is the future of US-China relations?

4. Why do US-China relations matter? Swaine: the United States and China harbor "clashing assumptions and beliefs about the requirements for continued order and prosperity in Asia." Nixon: “we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbors.” Trump! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL7o6np84pg

6. Why do US-China relations matter? (contd.) Obama: “We can’t predict with certainty what the future will bring, but …we know this: The relationship between the US and China will shape the 21 st Century” (US-China Strategic dialogue, 2009) Bremmer: “We should be very clear: China is at virtual war with the US, and the threat is far higher than that of terrorism, which gets the lion’s share of attention.” (President, Eurasia Group) Liu Mingfu: “It has been China’s dream for a century to become the world’s leading nation”. This will happen by 2049. (The China Dream, 2010)

7. “I’d say a war with China will probably take place within the next ten years” (Joe Siracusa, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, in Foreign Policy in Focus, June 2015)

8. Sub-questions Is the future inevitably one of growing tensions, confrontation and ultimately war? Should the US simply “fade away”, ceding its place as leader with grace? Can the US and China co-exist as equals?

9. Power Transition Theory Organski (World Politics) ▫A preponderance of power maintains Peace ▫There is always a hierarchy of powers Dominant power Great powers (source of challenger) Middle powers Small powers

10. The logic of transitions to war Dominant state Challenger state Great power war free zoneWar-prone zoneGreat power war free zone Time Old International OrderNew International Order David Lai, US Army War College, The US & China in Transition (2011)

11. Conditions to challenge the hegemon 1.2 nd ranked power in demographic and geographic terms; 2.Enjoys solid economic growth 3.Dissatisfied with existing world order 4.Offers an alternative model Does China fulfill these conditions?

12. Does China fulfill the criteria of a challenger power? CriterionChinaUS Area (km 2 )9.6 million9.8 million Population1.4 billion322 million GDP (US$)10.4 trillion17.5 trillion GDP (ppp$)17.6 trillion17.5 trillion GDP per capita12,90054,800 Growth (2014, %)7.42.4 Current Account Balance (US$) (2014) 204 billion-386 billion HDI rank (2014)915 Comparative Geographic, Demographic and Economic Data World Factbook

14. Financial Times (Oct. 2014)

15. Comparative Military Data CriterionChinaUS Military spending2 % of GDP4.4% of GDP Defense Budget$145 billion$577 billion Frontline active duty military 2.3 million1.4 million Aircraft2,86013,892 Aircraft Carriers120 Total naval ships673473 Military strength ranking#3#1 Global Firepower

16. US Interests 1.Security from attack 2.Maintain US global leadership & world order 3.Maintain healthy US and global economy These interests result in the Obama administrations 2012 “Pivot to Asia”

17. China’s Interests 1.Domestic stability 2.Return to past global stature 3.Ensure a world safe for China’s growth 4.Resolve border disputes favorably According to President Xi Jinping, these interests require the US to recognize a new type of “Major Power Relationship”.

18. Options for the US moving forward Integrate or Contain? Post WW II – the US deployed containment In the 1970s – the US switches to Integration - The assumption: China will liberalize both economically and politically Should the US re-think its policies?

19. Favoring Containment: Domestic challenges in China will result in aggression abroad. China is establishing new international institutions to challenge the US. Current behavior and statements suggest that China has abandoned its policy of “peaceful rise” (Deng Xiaoping’s “biding one’s time” is over)

21. Favoring Integration: China’s rise has benefited the US, the World and China’s citizens China sometimes plays a helpful role in international politics – it may yet become a “responsible stakeholder” As China becomes more interdependent it becomes less likely to challenge the existing system Containment will simply result in a security dilemma/arms race We cannot expect China to bow to US dictates.

22. Integration: China CANNOT challenge the US Elizabeth Economy: China is a “fragile superpower” Domestic challenges include: Pollution Inequality Corruption Food scandals Domestic unrest A slowing economy

23. Nye: “If the US avoids containment and accommodates China, and if China accepts the US presence in the Western Pacific, and if both avoid human error and miscalculation, then conflict is not inevitable.” (China-US Focus, 2015) Comforting?

24. Possible Outcomes 1.US contains China – conflict eventually arises 2.China rises but then fades 3.US integrates/accommodates China and China continues to rise Congagement?

25. Questions to Consider 1.Can China continue its rapid growth and ultimately surpass/replace the US? 2.Should the US accommodate a new world order with China as an equal? 3.What is the current US approach? Is this the correct choice?

26. Thank You! Jonathan Schwartz schwartj@newpaltz.edu 845-257-2627

27. For More on the topic: Video debate - Joseph Nye vs. John Mearsheimer: http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vs- nye-on-the-rise-of-china/ http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/mearsheimer-vs- nye-on-the-rise-of-china/ Orville Schell: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/opinion/can- the-us-and-china-get-along.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/opinion/can- the-us-and-china-get-along.html Chai Jing on Environmental challenges: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6X2uwlQGQM Liu Mingfu: “World too important to be left to America” http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/ 2015/06/china-dream-liu-mingfu-power/394748/ http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/ 2015/06/china-dream-liu-mingfu-power/394748/