1. Should we ever replace our cars? Kevin Jones - kevin@osneyconsulting.com - 01865 791466 Should we ever replace our cars? Kevin Jones kevin@osneyconsulting.com

2. Why don’t cars last for ever? “A Volvo lasts longer than any other car - 19.7 years on average” “But why don’t they last for ever?” “Because people don’t want them to.”

3. Why change your car? Better economy Better safety Better driving Better technology Old one is worn out Fashion Better economy? Better safety? Better driving? Better technology? Old one is worn out?

4. How old is that technology? Four valves per cylinder  1919 (Bentley 3-litre) Independent suspension/monocoque construction  1922 (Lancia Lambda) Front wheel drive  1934 (Citroën Traction Avant) Fuel injection  1954 (Mercedes 300SL) Modern aerodynamics  1955 (Citroën DS)

5. More recent advances Digital engine management  1979 (BMW 7-series) Airbag  1980 (Mercedes S-Class) Catalytic converter  1985 (several) Modern rustproofing  1986 (Audi 80) Common-rail diesels  1997 (Fiat/Bosch) Where next?

6. Are cars still getting better? For the first time - perhaps not Press reports now often seem to prefer old models to their replacements  BMW 3-series, 5-series  bikes too: Honda VFR800, Pan European Car advertisements now very rarely tell you anything about the car! Power “arms race” suggests industry has run out of ideas? Dutch research found no improvement in overall fuel economy 1990-97

7. Fuel consumption of UK vehicles Adapted from VCA fuel consumption database – www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk

8. Why not change your car? Environmental cost of manufacture  up to 40% of total CO2 emissions  > 60% of total toxic emissions Disposal issues  8-9 million tonnes annually in Europe Technology now advancing very slowly Modern vehicles extremely durable Depreciation trap

9. Total energy use Years Terajoules 10203040 Fuel consumption improves only very slightly, if at all Consumption and emissions don’t deteriorate provided vehicle is properly maintained 1 2 3

10. Appropriate technology E F Schumacher: “Small is Beautiful”, 1973 Workmanlike, durable, easy to repair locally Schumacher was thinking of low-tech items Applies to cars too  1940s/50s (Morris Minor, VW Beetle)  1960s (Mini, MGB)  1970s (Fiat Panda, Mercedes W123, Volvo)  Lots of 1980s cars  Gets harder after mid-1990s  Can’t even change headlight bulb on current Renaults!

11. Effect on the economy New car Mostly manufactured abroad  Transportation costs  No local employment  Components manufactured around the world Servicing generally only by authorised dealers  Lock-in - £££ Maintain existing car Many jobs a DIY proposition Local garage can handle most others  Skilled local employment

12. Does it make sense? 470kg2,700kg 23bhp295bhp 60mpg/110g CO 2 /km18.8mpg/354g CO 2 /km  Banned from Italian city Euro IV compliant centres on grounds of pollution

13. Conclusions Technology Apart from common-rail diesels, little compelling progress since mid 1980s Mass-market vehicles now approaching “theoretical ideal” Next big step forwards is probably fuel cells Durability Mechanical durability proved over several decades  subject to correct maintenance Modern rustproofing since mid 1980s

14. Conclusions Your vehicle will not wear out if well maintained Advances based on current principles very unlikely to offset environmental cost of manufacture Any petrol car since mid 1980s, or diesel since late 1990s, will probably remain “modern” until the next revolutionary advance

15. Conclusions Unless downsizing to something inherently more economical, keep your existing car until a “step change” such as fuel cells appears If downsizing, buy secondhand rather than cause a new car to be built