1. Verification Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’ Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2 Silke Dierer and Francis Schubiger MeteoSwiss

2. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 1 Outline Work in Task 1.1 Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecast Preliminary list of cases Further steps Work in Task 1.2 Verification for Winter 04/05 and Dec.05/Jan.06 Example of a characteristic period Further steps

3. Verification Task 1.1 Selection of single test cases

4. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 3 Selection of test cases: sources I Information from forecasters about bad precipitation forecast Not objective For different forecast ranges Verification of precipitation by forecasters daily average for 15 regions in Switzerland forecast, model results and observations disadvantage: currently no automatic evaluation possible => Situations with bad precipitation forecast in Switzerland

5. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 4 Selection of test cases: sources II SYNOP-Verification - surface verification for Europe with SYNOP data => Situations with bad precipitation forecast for the aLMo domain

6. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 5 Selection of test cases Preliminary list of test cases includes periods that are reported by forecasters or have a bad forecast for several regions (forecasters‘ verification) and show high deviation in SYNOP verification

7. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 6 Selection of test cases: Preliminary list for 2005 DateSourceUnder-/Overestimation classification (based on NCEP data) dd at 500 hPasurface pressure (high, low, flat) 19.-22.1. FV+NW/NW/NW/NWL/H/H/L 22.-23.1.FV+NW/NWL/L 11.-15.2.FV+W/W/NW/NW/NH/H/L/L/L 24.3.FV-SW H, flat 9.4.FV+NOL 16./17.4.FV-SO/OL,flat 23.-25.4.Fo/FV+/+W/W/SWH 16./17.5.Fo/FV?/+SWH 21.-23.5.FV-SWH 14.6.FV+SWH 25.6.FV+/-SWH,flat 2.7.Fo+WL 18.7.FV+SWH 29.7.FV+SWH,flat 2./3.8.FV+SW/SH->L, inbetween 6.8.FV+WH 11.8.Fo+WH 14.-22.8.Fo/FV?/+ (mainly)W/NW/N/N/N/W/SW/SO/O H/L/L/H,flat/H,flat/H/L/L/L 28.8.Fo+NWH,flat 2.9.FV+SH,flat 8.-12.9.Fo/FV-/- (mainly)S/S/?/SW/SWH,flat/H,flat/L,flat,/L/L 16./17.9.FV-, dann +W/SWL/L 1.-3.10.Fo/FV+, dann –/-N/W/WH/L/L 18.10.Foerst -/dann +SWH 22./23.10.Fo-SW/SWL/L 3.11.Fo? SWL 6.11.Fo- SWH,flat

8. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 7 ANETZ verification for 21 st January 05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

9. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 8 Selection of test cases: next steps Complete list for 2004 and 2006 Check if insufficient forecast is due to deviations of the synoptic situation Might be necessary to rerun simulations due to missing output plots that can be compared with analysis Possibly ANETZ verification => skip these cases Specify different kinds forecast errors (e.g. synoptic conditions) and select characteristic test cases

10. Verification Task 1.2. Seasonal verification

11. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 10 Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP

12. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 11 Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

13. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 12 Verification of aLMo: December 05 – January 06 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo

14. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 13 February 2005 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

15. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 14 ANETZ verification for 10 th -14 th February 05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

16. Verification francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO PP QPF Workshop, Langen, 08.03.2006 15 Seasonal verification: next steps Selection of characteristic days Based on scatter plots for winter 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 (measurement vs. simulation) 24h area averages for Switzerland, for different heights (0-800m, 800m-1500m and above 1500m) Selecting days with bad precipitation forecast Specifying synoptic situation Select characteristic periods