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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing November 10, 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing November 10, 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing November 10, 2015

2 World Wheat Production November 10, 2015

3 During most of the growing season, heat was NOT an issue… …but spike in temperatures just before last lockup was concerning. November 10, 2015

4 Temperatures have averaged well above normal during the last 4 weeks… Last lockup November 10, 2015

5 Highly Variable Australia Weather Conditions Result in Wide Swings in Production Australia Wheat Production Time Series and Proposed Forecast November 10, 2015

6 World Wheat Supply and Use November 10, 2015

7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

8 World Rice Production November 10, 2015

9 *Multi-variate ENSO Index (MEI) Source: NOAA / Earth System Research Lab * Variates include sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C) World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility November 10, 2015

10 World Agricultural Outlook Board Joint Agricultural Weather Facility November 10, 2015

11 INDONESIA: Seasonal Rice Production Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis IPA Division Dry Season Wet Season Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2014 16.2 MMT 11.6 MMT 8.3 MMT November 10, 2015

12 World Rice Supply and Use November 10, 2015

13 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice November 10, 2015

14 World Corn Production November 10, 2015

15 Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food Harvest is progressing at the most rapid pace since 2010. November 10, 2015

16 As of November 5, yield is reported at 5.38 t/ha against 5.77 t/ha last year. Although cumulative yield is increasing, the gap between this year’s and last year’s yields continues to widen. Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food November 10, 2015

17 Source: USDA Estimated output is reduced from 25.0 to 23.0 mmt based on official harvest reports. Estimated yield is down 8.0% from last month and down 6.5% from last year but 1.6% above the 5-year average. November 10, 2015

18 World Corn Supply and Use November 10, 2015

19 Louisiana Gulf Nearby Export Bid Sorghum/Corn Price Ratio November 10, 2015

20 U.S. Sorghum Supply and Demand Current and previous forecast and change November 10, 2015

21 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

22 World Soybean Production November 10, 2015

23 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

24 World Cotton Production November 10, 2015

25 9.5 10.6 9.5 10.6

26

27 World Cotton Supply and Use November 10, 2015

28 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

29 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

30 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

31 U.S. Meat Production and Prices November 10, 2015

32 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds November 10, 2015

33 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand November 10, 2015

34 U.S. Dairy Product Prices November 10, 2015

35 U.S. Production Summary November 10, 2015

36 Domestic Demand Summary November 10, 2015

37 U.S. Export Summary November 10, 2015

38 Price Summary November 10, 2015


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