1. The ASSOCIATION FOR STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA (ASARECA) INVESTING IN LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES TRADE TO IMPROVE LIVELIHOODS OF POPULATIONS OF THE LAKE TANGANYIKA BASIN Paper Presented at the 1 rst EAC Lake Tanganyika Basin Development Conference, Bujumbura, November 28- 29, 2011 by Dr. Jean Ndikumana Manager, ASARECA Livestock & Fisheries Program

2. Outline Situation analysis Constraints to the development of livestock and fisheries trade in ECA in general and in the Lake Tanganyika basin in particular Investment opportunities to enhance trade in ECA Suggesting strategic investments to promote trade in the basin

3. SITUATION ANALYSIS

4. IMPORTANCE OF LIVESTOCK IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA Contributes 10 – 40 % Of GDP in ECA Worth 34.5% of the regional AgGDP Practiced on more than 60% of ECA total landmass.

5. Fish amount for 22% supply of animal proteins; In addition to local consumption, fish is one of the leading export commodities for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania. Small scale fisheries contribute to employment, food security and income. IMPORTANCE OF FISHERIES IN ECA

6. Fisheries Production per environment in ECA (t x 1000) Environment19901995200020052009 Inland1096.01014.91078.61267.21175.3 Marine145.2154.8184.9183.2194.5 Aquaculture4.3112.2019.3031.32103.1 TOTAL1245.51181.81282.71481.71472.9

7. CountryProduction 2000Production 2009 Burundi100200 Kenya500 4900 RDC21003000 Rwanda270400 Soudan10002200 Tanzanie 3105700 Ouganda820 77000 TOTAL REGION510093400 Nigeria25700152800 TOTAL SS AFRICA 107000390000 Aquaculture production of 7 ECA countries (t) (FAO, 2011)

8. A study conducted by IFPRI and ASARECA to identify strategic priorities for ASARECA concluded that: When ECA is viewed as a region, milk emerged the most important commodity sub-sector for growth-inducing investment in research and development. Milk was followed by Cassava, maize and bananas. POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF LIVESTOCK TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ECA

9. Regional AgGDP Gains to 2015 from Growth in Selected Commodity Sub-Sectors (US$ million) 050100150200250300350400450 Sugar Poultry Beans_Peas Wheat_Barley Rice Potatoes_Sweetpotatoes Sorghum_Millet Coffee_Tea Beef Oilseeds Vegetable_Fruits Bananas Maize Cassava Milk

10. Looking at commodity groups, growth of the livestock commodities would result into the highest regional AgGDP gains to 2015, followed respectively by cereals, roots and tubers, fruits and vegetables and oil seeds. POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF LIVEST. TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ECA

11. Regional GDP Gains to 2015 from Growth in Selected Commodity Groups (US$ million)

12. Looking at sub-sectors, the study shows that investing in the livestock sub-sector would result into the second highest impact on the AgGDP just after staple crops. POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF LIVEST. TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF ECA COUNTRIES

13. Regional GDP Gains to 2015 from Growth in Selected Commodity Groups (US$ million)

14. For fisheries, growth has since 1990s slowed down in the capture fisheries amidst indications that several fisheries are nearing production limits. Growth of demand for livestock and fisheries products is higher than production due to population growth and income, urbanisation and change in nutrition habits. All ECA member countries are net importers of milk and most of them are net importers of meat. The situation is expected to worsen if countries continue business as usual. PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION TRENDS

15. Human population, fish production and demand projections Country,Popul. 2006* (x1,000) Tot. fish prod 2006** (tx 1000) Per capita supply (Kg/yea r) ** Estim. Popul. 2050* (x 1,000) Estim. Fish requirement s 2050 (t x1000) Burundi8,090.114.23.228,31590.6 DR Congo62,660.6239.65.7189,3111,079.1 Kenya34,707.8159.75.365,176345.4 Rwanda8,648.28.20.625,128.715.1 The Sudan41,236.464.62.073,029146.1 Uganda28,195.8399.50.8106,0491,039.3 Tanzania37,445.4341.110.382,510849.9 TOTAL1,226.93,565.5 Sources: *: Population Reference Bureau (2008); ** (FAOSTAT 2009)

17. Net trade in livestock products in Africa (’000 tonnes) 197019801990200020152030 Beef11963–3252–5–109 Eggs0–3–5–17–9–22 Milk–913–2,496 – 1,785 – 1,971 – 3,605 – 5,226 Mutton/ goat 294029597380 Pork–4–9–21–42–71–108 Poultry–2–43–86–149–280–606 Note: Negative figures imply imports Source: FAOSTAT (2002)

18. Constraints analysis for Livestock and Fisheries Development

19. Major Challenge Low contribution of Livestock and fisheries to sustainable livelihoods due to :  Poor Returns from Investment in the livestock and fisheries sectors and  Low contribution to food and nutrition security from the fisheries sector.   Ca

20. Causes for low contribution of fisheries to nutrition security Insufficient quantities of fish produced in relation to the demand caused by  low aquaculture production  destructive fishing practices (fishing gear and methods) caused by weak regulatory policies and  high post-harvest losses (25%) due to poor facilities for post harvest conservation  Ca

21.  Low utilization base of AqGR  Limited utilization of feeds and feed resources due to limited private investments in fish feed production  Lack of credible quality seed supply chain due to limited public and private investment in fish seed multiplication and distribution  Low adoption of existing production packages  High mortality rate of farmed fish due to inadequate knowledge of fish diseases and poor water quality. Causes of Low aquaculture production

22. Major constraints to increased returns from investments in aquaculture High post harvest losses due to poor infrastructures and limited use of innovations in processing. Limited value addition due to poor technical capacity for pre-and post harvest processing techniques. Poor market access due to poor infrastructures; poor institutional support; poor capacity to meet standards and lack of market information.

23. Major constraints to increased returns from investments in Livestock production Low farm level profitability caused by low productivity; poor utilization of innovations and inefficient input and output markets Poor market opportunities due to poor access to markets; poor utilization of market based innovations and poor value addition in input and output market chains.

24. Major constraints to increased livestock productivity Low genetic potential : more than 90% of ECA livestock population are indig. breeds with low productivity but excellent adaptive traits. Inadequate nutrition: availability of feed resources in quantity and quality is the single most important constraint to livestock production across countries and production systems

25. Major constraints to increased livestock productivity Poor veterinary services : inadequate veterinary services delivery by the public and private sectors High Cost of inputs Poor organisation of farmers resulting in high production cost at farm level.

26. Major causes of poor market access for livestock and fisheries products Unidentified niche markets Inappropriate standards and sanitary regulations Inappropriate tax incentives Poor infrastructures and services Poor access to market information Poor value addition in input output market chains Trade barriers and effects of globalisation Poor utilization of innovations

27. Major Opportunities for investment to enhance Livestock and fisheries trade in the lake Tanganyika basin

28. Opportunities to enhance trade in Livestock and Livestock products Growth in demand for livestock and livestock products is higher than the growth in production at national or regional levels (ECA). All countries in the basin are net importers of milk, meat and other livestock products. Ready market in ECA, middle east and other regions of SSA.

29. Opportunities to enhance trade in Livestock and Livestock products High potential to improve productivity through investments in research to enhance generation and adoption of productivity enhancing technologies and innovations including tapping on the potential of biotechnology.

30. Opportunities to enhance trade in Livestock and Livestock products Harmonisation of quality, safety and standards at the basin as well as regional level in ECA. Investment in value addition to increase shelf life and respond to the consumer demand in terms of quality and safety (processing).

31. Opportunities to enhance trade in Fisheries Production growth lower than the demand growth for all countries of ECA. In all countries of the lake Tanganyika basin, production is lower than the demand and there is huge market in countries such as DRC, Kenya, South Sudan.

32. UGANDA’S CROSS-BORDER FISH EXPORTS, 2005 Country of destinatio n Quantit y (tonnes) Value US $ (million) DRC10,40819.4 Kenya10,67513 Rwanda890.072 South Sudan 3450.876 Tanzania26.80.032 Total 21,54433.3800

33. O pportunities to enhance trade in Fisheries Capture fisheries on Lake Tanganyika and other lakes is declining due to overfishing. Major opportunity for investment in harmonising policies at basin level to control fishing efforts including involving fishing communities through appropriate incentives.

34. Opportunities to enhance trade in Fisheries The single most important opportunity to increase fish supply in the basin is through investment in aquaculture tapping on the wide availability of hydrological resources (rivers, streams, swamps, underground water; high rainfall). Example: Uganda.

35. Opportunities to enhance trade in Fisheries Investment in aquaculture is very profitable as illustrated by the quick cost benefit analysis of investments in pond and cage fish culture in Uganda.

36. Capital cost Revenue Total sales Operating costs Feed Fingerlings Labour and management Other costs Depreciation Total operating costs Gross profit Capital cost/ton Gross profit/ton 40,000 200,000 130,350 27,200 15,000 10,000 4,140 186,690 13,310 400 133 SMALL SCALE CAGES (40 LVHD) FOR TILAPIA - 100 t/year

37. Capital costs Revenue Total sales (/yr) Operating costs (/yr) Feed Fingerlings Labour and management Other costs Depreciation Total operating costs Gross profit (/yr) Capital cost/ton Gross profit/ton 1,160,000 10,000,000 6,195,652 1,358,696 920,000 100,000 235,000 8,909,348 1,190,652 840 238 LARGE-CAGE TILAPIA CAGE PRODUCTION ( 400 CAGES; 5000 t/yea (in US$ 2011)

38. Complete feed tilap. Complete feed catfish Fertilized ponds tilapia Total capital costs Revenue Total sales (/yr) Operating costs (/yr) Feed/Fertilizer Fingerlings Water Labour Other costs Depreciation Total operating costs Gross profit Capital cost/ton Gross profit/ton 230,000 200,000 93,913 33,967 6,000 41,600 10,000 11,500 196,980 3,020 2,300 30 230,000 347,826 243,478 27,174 6000 41,600 10,000 11,500 339,752 8,074 1,150 40 230,000 100,000 1,877 16,984 6,000 34,400 10,000 11,500 80,760 19,240 4,600 385 BASE MODELS FOR 10 HECTARE POND BASED SYSTEMS (2011 US$)

39. Opportunities to enhance trade in Fisheries Prices used for the above cost benefit analys is lower than current prices on the markets as indicated in the following slide.

40. PRODUCT- MARKET MATRIX, WITH PRICES, 2010 (US$/kg) Nile perchTilapiaDagaa Fres h Smoke d Sun- dried By- products Fres h Smoke d Sun- dried Kenya 1.891.50 2.032.50 3.231.20 Tanzania 2.50 1.87 1.56 1.30 Uganda 2.14 1.43 0.71 1.43 1.25 1.43 DRC 2.151.29 2.253.22 Rwanda 3.00 1.50 S. Sudan 4.62 3.08 5.77 5.76 Burundi 5 8

41. Strategic Investment priorities to promote trade in the livestock and fisheries sectors in the basin

42. I ncreasing Livestock Production Investment in research to ensure that the sector development is supported by science based information to be generated, packaged and disseminated along the value chain (production, value addition, marketing; policy etc.) to enhance utilisation of innovations.

43. Increasing livestock production Strategic investments needed in the following areas: Promote private sector investment in breed improvement, feed production and delivery of veterinary services through public private partnership.

44. Increasing access to market of livestock products Strategic investments in the following areas: Promote private sector investment in post harvest handling facilities (holding grounds, abattoirs, milk collection centres; appropriate containers etc.) to minimize post harvest losses in the livestock sector Invest into processing facilities such as meat and milk processing plants to increase value addition.

45. Increasing Market Access of livestock and livestock products Promote enabling policy environment to enhance trade in livestock and livestock products by:  Establish and harmonise standards and safety regulations at the basin and regional levels.  Review trade policies at the basin and at regional level (EAC) to enhance trade of livestock and livestock products. (trade barriers; taxation ; incentives...).

46. Increasing Market Access of livestock and Livestock products Build the capacity of actors along the livestock value chains to comply with the established quality and safety standards at national, regional and international levels. Invest in developing a strong market information network using modern communication technologies.

47. Increasing Fisheries Production Investment into research through appropriate funding to ensure the sector development is supported by science based information to be generated by strong research institutions. For example, initiate a fisheries Research Programme in Burundiunder ISABU and in Rwanda under RAB. Strengthen TAFIRI.

48. Increasing fisheries production Strategic investments needed in the following areas: Investments to promote aquaculture through. T apping on the tremendous hydrological resources in the basin (rivers, streams, swamps, underground water, high rainfall in many areas )

49. Increasing fisheries production Strategic investments needed in the following areas: Investments to promote aquaculture through. Facilitating private sector investment in quality seed supply chain and fish feedproduction

50. Increasing Capture Fish production I nvest in policy harmonization in countries of the lake Tanganyika basin to control fishing efforts on lake Tanganyika to counter the declining trend of capture fisheries and restore its biodiversity.

51. Increasing access to market of fish and fish products Strategic investments in the following areas: Promote private sector investment in post harvest handling facilities ( cold chains, other post harvest handling facilities) to minimize post harvest losses. Invest into value addition facilities to increase shelf life of fish (smoking, drying, SME processing).

52. Increasing Market Access of fish and fisheries products Promote enabling policy environment to enhance trade in fish and fisheries products by:  Establish and harmonise at regional level appropriate standards and safety regulations for fish and fisheries products.  Promote policies that will enhance trade of fish and fish products in the basin and in the region (trade barriers; taxation and incentives).

53. Increasing Market Access of fish and fisheries products Build the capacity of actors along the fish value chains to comply with the established quality and safety standards at national, regional and international levels. Invest in developing a strong market information network using modern communication technologies.

54. Thank you for your audience