1. Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project Aaron Sussman Senior Planner Mid-Region Council of Governments AMPO Annual Conference October 23, 2014

2. Albuquerque and Central New Mexico  Albuquerque population = 555,000  Less than 100,000 in 1950  Metropolitan area = 900,000 (Projected >1.3 million by 2040)  City area = 190 mi.² / MSA = 8,400 mi.²  Surrounded by mountains to the east; tribal lands to north, south, and west  Northern edge of Chihuahuan Desert  9” of rain per year  Elevation = 5312’

4. Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project  Partnerships with range of federal agencies, US DOT Volpe Center  Understanding of climate trends  Temperature & precipitation levels  Climate change impacts on central NM  Droughts  Wildfires  Flooding  Water availability  Consider whether development patterns make us more or less resilient to climate impacts

5. Integration with 2040 Metropolitan Transportation Plan  Scenario planning efforts  MTP performance measures  Transportation conditions  Air quality / emissions  Water consumption  Development in sensitive locations

6. Addressing Climate Change through Regional Planning Efforts Mitigation Can we grow and invest in ways that reduce GHG emissions?  Targeted density  Mixed-use  Public transit  Roadway efficiency improvements Adaptation Will our development choices make us more or less resilient to the impacts of climate change?  Minimizing growth in vulnerable areas  Water availability and consumption

7. Changing Climate Conditions Rio Grande Basin - 1971-2011  Average temperature increased by 0.7⁰F per decade  Twice the global average Source: NOAA

8. Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment  Study team:  Bureau of Reclamation  Army Corps of Engineers  Sandia National Labs  Detailed evaluation of climate, hydrology, and water operations of the upper Rio Grande basin of Colorado and New Mexico  Literature review on climate impacts in central New Mexico  Water availability projections

9. Key Questions  How much water?  In which season?

10. Modeling Climate Change and Future Streamflow General Circulation Models (GCM) Future Global Climate 112 runs, 1950-2099 112 Projections of Future Regional Temperature and Precipitation (Statistically Downscaled) Land Surface Model: 112 Projections of Future Snowmelt and Rainfall Runoff Post-Processing Bias Correction of Flows Resulting in 224 Hydrographs Operations Model: Route Flows Downstream Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment: Differences between Current Flows and Modeled Future Flows, with Impacts to Water Deliveries and Reservoir Levels

11. Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment Source: Bureau of Reclamation / Sandia Labs Hot-Wet Warm-Dry Warm-Wet Hot-Dry

12. Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment  All 112 scenarios result in higher temperatures  Higher temperatures increase water demand for irrigated agriculture and riparian zones  Precipitation is highly variable, which may lead to more intense droughts and more extreme events  Earlier snowmelt runoff  Changes in timing of river flows

13. Water Availability in ABQ Area: 2040 Rio Grande San Juan-Chama system River Flows in 2040 Compared to Historic Data (by GCM grouping)

14. Water Availability in 2100 According to the Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment:  Rio Grande flows decrease by 1/3  San Juan-Chama flows decrease by 1/4

15. Scenario Planning Process  Public outreach process and information gathering  Regional challenges  Scenario concepts  Series of three workshops 1.Introduce concept of scenario planning 2.Preliminary scenarios – zoning-based 3.Refined scenarios – zoning plus development incentives  Carrots rather than sticks approach to growth and locations of new development Preferred Scenario – Incentivized Locations

16. Climate Change-Related Evaluation Measures  Wildland-Urban Interface – Tool for assessing high forest fire risk areas  FEMA-designated 100-year floodplains  Crucial Habitat Assessment Tool  CO₂ emissions  Water consumption

17. Wildland-Urban Interface

18. 100-Year Floodplains What we hoped to do:  Quantify potential increase in flood risks  Identify areas that will be at risk as climate conditions change  Measure current and future development on new high-risk areas What we ended up doing:  Measure current and future development on existing flood plains  Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%  Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24- hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo  10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow  25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow

19. 100-Year Floodplains What we hoped to do:  Quantify potential increase in flood risks  Identify areas that will be at risk as climate conditions change  Measure current and future development on new high-risk areas What we ended up doing:  Measure current and future development on existing flood plains  Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%  Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24- hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo  10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow  25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow Calabacillas Arroyo – Rio Rancho, NM

20. 100-Year Floodplains What we hoped to do:  Quantify potential increase in flood risks  Identify areas that will be at risk as climate conditions change  Measure current and future development on new high-risk areas What we ended up doing:  Measure current and future development on existing flood plains  Reduce zoning capacity in floodplains by 20%  Case study: potential changes to 100-year 24- hour design storm on Calabacillas Arroyo  10% increase in precip  25% increase in flow  25% increase in precip  75% increase in flow

21. Crucial Habitat Areas  Western Governors Association tool – provides score for 1-mi² hexagons  Overlay land use with crucial habitat scores  Challenges:  Most critical locations (presence of water and endangered species) are in the urban core  Lowest risk areas also those subject to potential sprawl  Interesting, but we haven’t quite figured out how to put the information to use

22. Emissions Preferred Scenario:  Reduction in VMT, VHT, VHD  Reduction in river crossing trips  Increase in systemwide speed  Increase in proximity to jobs, activity centers  Increase in transit usage

23. Water Consumption  How we grow impacts how much water we consume  Analyze consumption patterns by land use type and housing mix  Single-family vs multi-family  Large-lot vs small-lot  Daily residential consumption dropping locally and nationally  1994: 250 gallons per capita  Today: ~135 gallons per capita Source: Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority Next steps: currently assessing water consumption by land use scenario

24. Project Benefits  Climate change as framing device for scenario planning and a way to introduce new measures  Create a sense of urgency  Connection between transportation, land use, and water  Agency connections  Project intended to integrate federal-land management areas into MPO planning  Equally beneficial in unexpected ways  Bureau of Reclamation  Army Corps of Engineers  Water Utility Authority  University of New Mexico  Sandia National Labs

25. Discussion  Not all measures lend themselves to scenario planning analysis; further refinement is needed and not always feasible  No one else is trying to link climate impacts with development policies and transportation decision-making, so the MPO has a role to play  Once you have this information, what do you do with it?  Should we talk about climate change directly, or should we talk about co-benefits?

26. Miscellany  Thanks to the following agencies for financial and technical assistance on the Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project:  FHWA  National Parks Service  Bureau of Land Management  US DOT Volpe Center  Volpe Center has developed a tool to process daily time-step data from general circulation models (1/8 th -degree cell) to assess changes in:  Average daily temperature  Maximum and minimum temperature  Precipitation levels Contact: Alex Epstein – alexander.epstein@dot.gov

27. Questions? Aaron Sussman, AICP Mid-Region Council of Governments asussman@mrcog-nm.gov