1. Making the Job-Infrastructure Connection CALCOG Region Issues Forum Darin Chidsey

2. I.2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

3. Southern California Association of Governments  Nation’s largest Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) and Council of Governments (COG)  Directed by a Regional Council of 84 local elected officials  6 counties  191 cities  Over 18 million residents  21,630 miles of highways and arterials  470 miles of passenger rail  6 air carrier airports

4. Anticipated Future Growth 4

5. Population Growth by County 5 4.2 Million New Residents by 2035 Population Growth from 2008 to 2035 (Residents by County)

6. Recently adopted 2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy Almost $525 billion in investments to improve the SCAG region’s transportation system through 2035 $263 billion in capital investments $217 billion in system operations, preservation, and maintenance $45 billion in debt service to advance construction of projects

7. Passenger Rail System 1990

8. Passenger Rail System Today

9. Passenger Rail Vision 2035 Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA Image courtesy Metrolink

10. Transportation Demand Management Active Transportation

11. Highways and Arterials Summary Image courtesy Metro © 2012 LACMTA

12. Goods Movement

13. Integrates Land Use and Transportation

14. GHG Reduction Targets from 2005 Base Year (per capita) 20202035 8%13% 9% 16%

15. Mobility: Reduce Per Capita Travel Delay by 1/3 60 minutes 40 minutes

16. Long-Term Funding Challenge VMT Index Population Index Gas Tax Index

17. 2012-2035 RTP/SCS Financial Plan $524.7 billion (nominal dollars)

18. I.2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

19. Southern California Share of California Job Creation: 2000-2007 90.5%

20. Southern California Share of California Job Losses: 2007-2010 60.9%

21. So. California Bay Area 41.5% 28.7% CALIFORNIA EDUCATION LEVELS BACHELOR’S OR HIGHER DEGREE - 29.9%

22. So. California Bay Area $72,544 $58,331 CALIFORNIA MEDIAN INCOME $58,931

23. Founded: 2009 Mission: Advise SCAG staff on the economic implications of SCAG’s planning activities and to better engage key public and private stakeholders. Chairman: Greg McWilliams, President, Newhall Land and Farming Members: (Approximately 30) Including: LA Economic Development Cooperation, Orange County Business Council,Inland Empire Economic Partnership, LA BizFed, Southern California Edison, Southern California Gas Company, Large Real Estate Developers, and others Meeting Schedule: 4-6 times per year Global Land Use & Economic (GLUE) Council

24. Southern California Economic Recovery & Job Creation Strategy SCAG has not typically been involved in Economic Development In 2010, hired Chief Economic Advisor, Jack Kyser and engaged five Economic Advisors Conducted Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of the Regions Economy

25. KEY INDUSTRIES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Logistics Film, TV, Commercials Manufacturing Construction

26. I.2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy II.Business Community Engagement III.Economic & Job Creation Analysis

27. 27 Economic and Job Creation Analysis Economic Times required More Comprehensive Analysis of Impact and Benefits of Infrastructure Expenditures SCAG Retained Team of Leading Economists o Wallace Walrod, Ph.D., Orange County Business Council o Marlon Boarnet, Ph.D., University of Southern California o Christine Cooper, Ph.D., LA Economic Development Corporation o John Husing, Ph.D., Economics & Politics Team Used Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI Model) to assess impacts

28. 28 Economic and Job Creation Analysis Components of Economic Analysis o Cost/Benefit of Investments o Economic Benefits of Construction Spending o Economic Benefits of an Improved Transportation System o Impacts of Fees

29. Cost/Benefit Investments 29 Cost Benefit Analysis Includes:

30. 30 2012–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Cost Total 2012 RTP/SCS Cost in Constant Dollars Annualize Costs Translate into per day (365) Adjust for per capita (Average of 20 million) Cost is Less than $2 per day per capita

31. 31 2012–2035 RTP/SCS Per Capita Benifit Over $5 per day per capita

32. Cost/Benefit Investments 32 Cost Benefit Analysis Includes:

33. Construction Benefit Construction 174,500 Annual Jobs 174,500 Annual Jobs

34. Network Benefits   Commuting   Accessibility   Transportation Network Benefits   Commuting   Accessibility   Transportation 354,000 Annual Jobs 354,000 Annual Jobs

35. Economic & Job Creation Analysis Full Results 2011- 2015 2016- 2020 2021- 2025 2026- 2030 2031- 2035 Annual Average CONSTRUCTION194165173188154174.5 ALL NETWORK BENEFITS2171263543852354 AMENITY & OPERATIONS1740658810864 2012-2035 RTP/SCS2322765018191,114592.5

36. Economic & Job Creation Analysis Full Results 2011- 2015 2016-20202021-20252026-20302031-2035Average SALES TAX-34.1-34-34.2-35.3-35.7-34.6 HIGHWAY TOLLS000-0.3-0.4-0.1 FREIGHT FEE000-0.2-0.3-0.1 GAS TAX0-6.4-5.4-0.9-1.6-2.9 VMT FEE00-14.8-72.9-63.1-29 All Revenue Options -34.1-40.4-54.4-109.6-101.1-66.8 Impacts of revenue options with no reinvestment New jobs and their resulting local, state and federal revenues not reflected

37. Economic & Job Creation Analysis Conclusion - Per Capita Cost is less than $2 per day - Per Capita Benefit is greater than $5 per day Construction Benefits — 174,500 annual jobsNetwork Benefits — 354,000 annual jobsUser Fee Impacts — 67,000 annual jobs

38. Thank you!