1. What will be the effects of the increasing energy role of China and India? Section 1 To what extent is the world's energy 'secure' at present ? Energy demand, supply and security Aims of this lesson:

2. From the Spec: 1.3: Demand for energy is growing globally, and at regional and local scales, especially in developed and emerging economies such as China and India We need to examine: Trends in global energy supply and demand by source, type of economy and economic sector 1.4: Energy security depends on resource availability (domestic and foreign) and security of supply, which can be affected by geopolitics, and is a key issue for many economies. We need to examine: An awareness that there is little excess capacity to ease pressure on energy resources and therefore energy insecurity is rising particularly for finite resources.

3. Read the viewpoints and consider why the ideas are held and by whom.

4. Preventing India's energy from being stolen from its grid would improve efficiency. Getting China to cut back on coal is crucial. Shirong Chen, China editor, BBC News: "What if China got all this clean coal technology and their economy would develop even faster? What would happen to the big economies like the USA and India?" Meanwhile, there's a dark horse coming up on the outside in the race, New Energy. China is aggressively developing solar and India’s Suzlon is one of the world leaders in wind. China’s goal is to get 15% of its electricity from New Energy by 2020. India intends to get 10% by 2012. And nobody is taking any kind of interest except a business interest. Viewpoints

5. Ironically, "clean" coal technology growth in China is being stymied by Western interests' fear of giving the booming Chinese economy that competitive leg up. Both China and India have nuclear energy programs and the rest of the world is more than a little uneasy about them. Australia just announced it will not sell uranium to India because India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Pact. Viewpoints

6. Leaders in the U.S. Senate last month rejected a commitment to get 15% of U.S. electricity from New Energy by 2020 on the grounds that many south-eastern states could not meet that standard. Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi aren’t capable of doing what India and China are doing? Viewpoints

7. What changes are coming? Why? What will be the impacts? The following slides are just an overview Use the articles to answer the questions in detail – present how you wish

9. WHAT Energy demand growth in China and India is driving world markets and shows no sign of letting up. Despite recent agreements between the 2 countries, competition for supplies is heated. WHEN - In 1993, China did not import oil. By 2030, it will import as much as the U.S. - By 2030, India’s oil imports will be greater than those of Japan or the European Union.

10. WHERE - In Beijing and Delhi, the race for oil deals in Latin America, Central Asia and Africa is a critical concern. - China seems less inhibited about doing business with governments shunned by the West like Iran, Burma and Venezuela. WHY - China’s economy is based on manufacturing, India’s is strongly service-based. This makes China even more energy-hungry. - India’s more open, democratic political system puts it at a disadvantage. e.g. A nuclear deal is being blocked in India by anti- U.S. politics while China is expanding nuclear plans at the government leadership’s will. But neither country will get more than 4% of its power from nuclear in 2020. - Both India and China are developing wind, biomass, solar and hydro-electric energy resources. - India has enormous undeveloped hydroelectric resources.

12. China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to jump to 19.1 million barrels a day in 2030 from 5.4 million barrels in 2006, more than what the United States and Japan now import. By 2030, global oil demand is expected to reach 116 million barrels a day. The use of coal, made attractive by oil and natural gas prices, is expected to rise 73 percent in the next 25 years, mostly because of Chinese and Indian use. The share of natural gas is projected to increase modestly while electricity use doubles.

13. China & India convert energy into wealth (BTUs per $1.00 of GNP) at only about 25% the efficiency of the USA or European Community KEY VARIABLES: MOST POPULOUS/WEALTHIEST NATIONS

14. This projection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that China’s energy consumption could nearly double in the next twenty years, and virtually all of this new energy will come from coal. Sources from http://www.ecoworld.com/features/2007/05/19/chinas-energy-demand/http://www.ecoworld.com/features/2007/05/19/chinas-energy-demand/

15. Energy Security – what factors affect this? Resource availability –both domestic and foreign Security of supply This can be affected by geopolitics and is a key issue for many economies. You looked at this last lesson) As there is little excess capacity (little to spare) to ease pressure on energy resources, energy insecurity is rising –particularly for the non-renewable resources. The key energy issues for individual countries are the 3 S’s – sustainability, security, and strategy

16. Task Read through the pages 17-21 and answer the following questions Produce an annotated map showing the distribution and availability of energy resources in China Create a flow chart/spider diagram to show the reasons for China’s energy insecurity Create a second diagram to show the steps which China is taking to tackle this energy insecurity What problems has China’s increasing demand foe energy created in the short term? What are the long-term consequences? Compare the energy security of China with Japan (see table on page 21)What are the similarities/ differences?