1. Pathways to Persistence New Jersey City University May 3, 2013 Thomas Brown tom@tbrownassociates.com www.tbrownassociates.com tom@tbrownassociates.com www.tbrownassociates.com

2. Colleges are in the dream and future business… Students come to college to create the futures they dream of for themselves.

3. Whether you’re transitioning from high school to higher education, a NJCU transfer student, or a working adult striving to achieve more in today’s global economy, your goals and dreams are important.

4. The American formula for success consists of five pillars: The first pillar is providing public education for more Americans. That Used to Be Us Tom Friedman &Michael Mandelbaum, 2011

5. The United States, long ranked first worldwide, now ranks 10th in the percentage of young adults who hold a college degree. Source: http://www.higheredinfo.org If current trends hold, the current generation of college-age Americans will be less educated than their parents for the first time in US history. Source: http://www.oecd.org The Challenge and the Opportunity

6. Education is an economic issue when we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that countries that out-educate us today will out-compete us tomorrow. President Barack Obama U of Texas, August 2010 A Matter of National Security

7. As long as education is viewed as a contest between competing groups…we will have problems. Cookie Newsom Director of Diversity Education and Research University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

8. Education is not a “zero sum” game, with winners and losers…. COMPETE Com = together Petire = to seek Creating Unum from the Pluribus

9. The more education any one of us gets the better off we all are. The American Community College: From Access to Success George Boggs, President, AACC, 2011

10. Increasing student persistence is a continuing concern in higher education…

11. Today, one in three Americans drops out of college In the 1960s one in five discontinued his or her studies. US Census Bureau

12. 77 % of high income students 54% of low income students graduate in six years. The Education Trust

13. A widening gap No matter how bright, low-income students are increasingly unlikely to make it through college. “What we’re talking about is a threat to the American Dream.” Sean Reardon, Stanford University

14. Retention Matters College student retention has been the most intensely studied issue in academic over the past several decades. Ward, Siegel, & Davenport, 2012

15. Retention Matters It’s time for the federal government to impose some thresholds for retention and graduation that colleges and universities would have to meet to keep their eligibility for financial aid…. Senator Tom Harkin New York Times, April 14, 2013

16. * National Graduation Rates* Total43.9% MA Public Traditional (Median SAT 950-1070) 45.5 MA Public Liberal (SAT 870-990) 43.3 MA Public Open (SAT 830-950) 38.5 * Graduation in 6 years. ACT Data File, 2012 http://www.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/retain_2011.pdf http://www.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/retain_2011.pdf

17. National Graduation Rates Total43.9% MA Public Traditional (Median SAT 950-1070) 45.5 MA Public Liberal (SAT 870-990) 43.3 MA Public Open (SAT 830-950) 38.5 NJCU (835 Median SAT)36.5* * Graduation in 6 years. College Results On-line http://www.collegeresults.org/search1a.aspx?institutionid=185129

18. 1970s to today Access 1980s and 1990s Retention Into the Future Persistence and Success

19. The message is clear: Access to higher education alone is not enough… a large percentage of students leave college before earning a degree. This is especially true of low income, first- generation minority students. Retention Review and Recommendations Carmen Panlilio Associate Vice President for Enrollment Management February 27, 2012

20. Defining Student Success  Academic achievement  Engagement in educationally purposeful activities  Student satisfaction  Acquisition of desired knowledge, skills and competencies  Persistence  Attainment of educational objectives  Post-college performance. George Kuh & Associates, 2007 Indiana University

21. NJCU Strategic Direction & Goals GOAL 2: ACHIEVE STUDENT SUCCESS: ACADEMIC, PERSONAL, AND SOCIAL 2.1 Graduate academically accomplished individuals with expertise in their discipline and in the university-wide outcomes 2.2 Advance students’ social and personal development. 2.3 Increase retention and degree completion for all students. NJCU Strategic Plan Working Document, April 2013

22. Three types of attrition  Expected and justified  Stopping out  Unnecessary and preventable by institutional interventions

23. Three types of attrition  Expected and justified  Stopping out  Unnecessary and preventable by institutional interventions

24. Three terms used interchangeably  RETENTION  ATTRITION  PERSISTENCE

25. RETENTION The process of holding or keeping in one’s possession.

26. The process or state of being gradually worn down. ATTRITION Migrant Mother, Dorothea Lange Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division [ reproduction number LC-USF34-9058-C]

27. PERSISTENCE To continue to exist or prevail, especially where others have not

28. Usual Theories of Student Departure Psychological: It’s something about them.

29. Usual Theories of Student Departure Psychological: It’s something about them. Environmental/Societal: It’s about social, economic, and other forces, (e.g., race, SES, opportunity structures).

30. Usual Theories of Student Departure Psychological: It’s something about them. Environmental: It’s about social, economic, and other forces, (e.g., race, SES, opportunity structures). Organizational:What about us?! What about me?

31. Colleges are more likely to blame student attrition on students…. What Works in Student Retention, 2004, 2010

32. We build beautiful campuses, We hire excellent faculty and staff, We develop a challenging curriculum… then the “wrong” students show up!

33. Redefining “excellence…” Being clear about your mission and developing the talent of the students you enroll. Astin (Way Back When…)

34. Myths about Attrition Pre-college attributes are primary determinants of persistence or withdrawal

35. What happens to students after they enroll frequently has a more powerful impact on whether they stay and achieve their goals or leave. Tinto 1987, 1993

36. Some Institutions seem to be more effective than others in helping students from a wide range of abilities and backgrounds succeed … How College Affects Students Pascarella & Terenzini, 2005

37. Our student population is one of the most vulnerable in the state’s four-year public college system. It is also the most inspiring, and [we recognize] the value of the investments in time, money and efforts that our students make towards their college education…. Carmen Panlilio, February 27, 2012 The Challenge

38. The New American University measures its academic quality by the education its graduates received rather than by the academic credentials of the incoming freshman class…. Arizona State: A New American University Redefining Excellence

39. ASU focuses on outcomes-determined excellence We want to be known more for the students we include than for those we exclude…. Dr. Michael Crow, President Arizona State University Redefining Excellence

40. Myths about Attrition Pre-college attributes are primary determinants of persistence or withdrawal Financial issues are the major cause of departure

41. When students cite financial reasons for leaving, it is another way of stating their view that the benefits of attendance do not outweigh the costs. Conversely, when students are satisfied with their educational experiences, they often are willing to accept considerable hardship in order to attend. Tinto

42. Why do students leave college? Isolation Inability to connect with significant members of the campus community….

43. Why do students leave college? Incongruence “What I experienced is not what I expected….”

44. Often there is a Grand Canyon of difference between reality and what higher education institutions promise in their viewbooks and on their websites…. Nemko, 2008

45. What do NJCU students expect? Our talented faculty and staff are committed to excellence in teaching and academic support for our student body…. Sue Henderson, Ph.D. President’s Message

46. What do NJCU students expect and experience? What you can expect by being here in NJCU: A relatively small campus in Jersey City both small and homey. It almost feels like your second home. NJCU Theater Arts student Survey of NJCU Students’ Experiences OIR May 2012

47. Myths about Attrition Pre-college attributes are primary determinants of persistence or withdrawal Financial issues are the major cause of departure Retention is a student affairs responsibility.

48. ALL aspects of campus life can have an impact on persistence or attrition decisions and behaviors. Promoting student persistence requires an institution-wide commitment.

49. It takes a campus community to support student achievement and success….

50. TRIAD FOR STUDENT SUCCESS High Quality Teaching Comprehensive Support Programs Developmental Academic Advising

51. Declining public support for higher education in New Jersey Just between FY00 and FY11, New Jersey’s state allocation per full-time- equivalent student plummeted by 44% from $4,699 to only $2,606.

52. Student Success  Funding Many states are rethinking funding models and awarding some money based on the number of students who finish courses and earn degrees. Kansas State Today, March 5, 2013

53. FINANCIAL COSTS OF ATTRITION at NJCU Assumptions · FTE First-year students 1000 · Annual Tuition and Fees$10,000 · New Jersey Appropriation per FTE$2700 · First to second year attrition rate 30% · Second to third year attrition rate 20% Attrition Rate Lost Years Lost Students RemainingRevenue First to Second 30% 300 3$10.8 million Year Second to Third 20% 140 2$3,360,000 Year Total Lost Revenue$14,160,000

54. A conservative estimate of loss-- Does not include lost revenue from: Fees, books, other expenditures Recruitment and re-recruitment costs ($2,143 per new student median cost) Negative effects of students’ leaving on future enrollments of family, friends, and others

55. Student Success  Funding It is more effective to retain a student than to replace a student. K-State Today, March 5, 2013

56. College retention rates impact not only colleges, but our country and its future competitiveness in the global economy…. Martindale, 2011

57. THREE PERCENT (3%) INCREASE IN RETENTION Assumptions · FTE First-year students 1000 · Annual Tuition and Fees$10,000 · New Jersey Appropriation per FTE$2700 · First to second year attrition rate 27% · Second to third year attrition rate 17% Attrition Rate Lost Years Lost Additional Students RemainingRevenue Revenue First to Second 27%270 (+30) 3 $9,720,000 1,080,000 Year Second to Third 17%124 (+16) 2 $2,976,000 384,000 Year Additional Revenue $1,464,000

58. FIVE PERCENT (5%) INCREASE IN RETENTION Assumptions · FTE First-year students 1000 · Annual Tuition and Fees$10,000 · New Jersey Appropriation per FTE$2700 · First to second year attrition rate 25% · Second to third year attrition rate 15% Attrition Rate Lost Years Lost Additional Students RemainingRevenue Revenue First to Second 25%250 (+50) 3 $90,000,000 1,.8 million Year Second to Third 15%113 (+27) 2 $2,712,0000 648,000 Year Additional Revenue $2,448,000

59. Pathways to Persistence: Becoming a student at NJCU

60. ASSESSMENTS You take your English and Math Accuplacer assessments and you discover...

61. COURSE SELECTION You begin to think about selecting your first term courses and...

62. COURSE AVAILABILITY When you go to register for classes, you find…

63. PROGRAM/MAJOR CHOICE Midway through the first term, your thinking about your chosen program or major is...

64. ACADEMIC PROGRESS During the middle of your first term...

65. FACULTY ATTITUDES Following a class, you approach the professor to ask a question about an assignment. The professor...

66. QUALITY OF INSTRUCTION At the end of the first term, before you get your grades, you feel that the quality of instruction...

67. DIFFICULTY OF COURSES At the end of the first term, your feelings about the difficulty of your courses is...

68. PERSONAL FINANCES The following statement describes the state of your personal finances...

69. CLASSMATE RELATIONSHIPS This statement describes your relationship with your classmates….

70. CO-CURRICULAR ACTIVITIES As you think about co-curricular activities at NJCU you feel...

71. REGISTRATION POLICIES AND PROCEDURES Your experiences with NJCU’s registration policies and procedures is...

72. EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES You need to find a job to meet financial obligations and...

73. SUPPORT STAFF ATTITUDES When you need help from support staff…

74. SUPPORT STAFF RESPONSIVENESS The last time you went into an office to ask a simple question...

75. HOME ENVIRONMENT Last night at home...

76. COMMUTING The following describes your experiences getting to your classes...

77. SOCIAL LIFE Looking back on your social life during the first term...

78. Sum the Scores +5+-5 = 0 +5+-3 = +2 -5++2 = -3

79. ORIGINAL COMMITMENT SCORES Entering Student Profiles Student ID #Original Commitment Score 001+14 002+21 003 -6 004-17 005+35 006 +1 007-30 008 -2 009 +9 010 0

80. Group Discussion  On the basis of your entering profile and incident outcomes, would you be likely to return to NJCU? If so, why? If not, why not?  What incident had the strongest negative impact? Why was it so negative for you?  What could a faculty member, administrator, or staff person have done to reduce this negative impact?

81. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES Illustrates that the decision to withdraw is usually a complex process involving a series of events which occur over time, rather than a decision resulting from a single event at one point in time.

82. The more actively engaged students are—with college faculty and staff, with other students, and with the subject matter they study—the more likely they are to learn and persist…. Dr. Kay McClenney University of Texas

83. Gratitude, I am very grateful that NJCU hung in there with me, and worked with me to the finish line. \NJCU is not only patient and kind, but more than helpful. NJCU goes the distance and makes it happen. I have gotten nothing but quality service from the staff here, in each department. NJCU Sociology student NJCU Survey of Students’ Experiences May 2012

84. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES Illustrates that student characteristics (profiles) combine with institutional experiences (incidents) to shape a student’s decision to persist or withdraw.

85. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES Illustrates that similar experiences and events affect students differently and that we can respond to students and their needs if we come to know them from our interactions with them--in class, in advising meetings--by paying attention to small encounters.

86. We demonstrate concern for students through our actions. Act “as if” small encounters matter because they often do.

87. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES Illustrates that ALL aspects of campus life can have an impact on persistence or attrition decisions and behaviors.

88. Members of the campus community must always remember that they are members of a proverbial village; they need to know what resources are available and how to connect students to those resources. Increasing Persistence Habley, Bloom, Robbins, 2012

89. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES Illustrates that careful interventions by individuals and/or specifically designed programs can have a positive influence on students’ social and academic integration and, subsequently, on their persistence behaviors.

90. Student engagement is not likely to happen by “accident.” It has to be planned or designed so that it improves student learning….

91. SIMULATION OBJECTIVES To encourage and promote an institutional dialogue about programs, services, attitudes and behaviors that can enhance student satisfaction, achievement, and persistence.

92. "Gentlemen and Ladies, we have run out of money. It's time to start thinking....” Sir Ernest Rutherford, Nobel Laureate Bulletin of the Institute of Physics (1962)13

93. Students don’t have interactions with institutions, they have encounters and interactions with individuals.

94. The biggest and longest lasting reform in undergraduate education will come when individuals and small groups adopt the view of themselves as reformers in their immediate spheres of influence. K. Patricia Cross 2010

95. We need to be the change we want to see happen. M. Gandhi

96. Pathways to Persistence New Jersey City University May 3, 2013 Thomas Brown tom@tbrownassociates.com www.tbrownassociates.com tom@tbrownassociates.com www.tbrownassociates.com