1. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy C-Change in GEES People and the Environment Session 1 Session 1: Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy

2. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy How to use the teaching slides  These slides are not intended to form a complete lecture on the session topic.  These resources are designed to suggest a framework to help tutors develop their own lecture material  The resource slides comprise where appropriate; key points, case studies, images, references and further resources.  There are limited case studies included. Students can develop their own portfolio of case studies as part of coursework activities  These resources may be used for educational purposes only, for other uses please contact the author  These slides were last updated in January 2010

3. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Disclaimer  Links within this presentation may lead to other sites. These are provided for convenience only. We do not sponsor, endorse or otherwise approve of any information or statements appearing in those sites. The author is not responsible for the availability of, or the content located on or through, any such external site.  While every effort and care has been taken in preparing the content of this presentation, the author disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of the information in any of the content. The author also (to the extent permitted by law) shall not be liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information. The author is also not liable for any losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on sites linked to this site, or the internet generally.  Pictures, photographs and diagrams within this presentation have been produced by the author unless otherwise stipulated  No content within this resource is knowingly an infringement of copyright. Any infringement can be immediately rectified on notification of the author of the resource

4. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Learning Objectives By the end of this lecture you should: appreciate the difficulties in bringing together scientific expertise and political action be able to discuss how misunderstandings of scientific expertise intersect with the formulation of environmental policy, drawing on examples of both disasters and successes

5. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Session Outline 1.Introduction: Science and Public Policy 2.Uncertainty in Four Parts 3.Uncertainty as a Policy Problem 4.Case Studies: 1.The O-Zone Layer 2.Global Warming 5.Policy Options in the Face of Uncertainty

6. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Introduction: What is public policy? Principles of government that mandate or constrain actions Policies are supported by legislation, regulations, standards, assessments etc. Policy in the environmental area attempts to balance interests in environmental quality - clean air, water, etc. - with interests in economic growth – eg. extracting resources and discharging wastes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Houses.of.parliament.overall.arp.jpg

7. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Introduction: Problems of Science and Policy Environmental policy needs scientific knowledge in advance Attributing specific environmental outcomes to the effects of human activities – e.g. waste discharge, resource extraction, land transformation – is often highly uncertain Uncertainty over possible outcomes produces chronic conflict and indecision

8. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Uncertainty: In 4 Parts Risk Uncertainty Ignorance Indeterminacy

9. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Risk When the behaviour of a environmental system is well known Chances of different outcomes can be defined and quantified by structured analysis of mechanisms and probabilities Risk analysis is based on modelling and represents a constructed definition of entities that is more open- ended than risk models suggest Though the risks of a 100-year flood are fairly well known, people still settle on floodplains http://www.flickr.com/photos/54945394@N00/866325815/sizes/l/ When we know the odds

10. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Uncertainty When the parameters of an environmental system are known, but the distribution of probabilities are not Scientific convention: certainty = 95% Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/) It’s more than 95% certain that mean CO 2 is increasing over time. When we know the main parameters

11. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Ignorance When we don’t know what we don’t know “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.” (Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defence, Feb. 12, 2002, US Department of Defence news briefing) Ignorance is not so much a characteristic of knowledge itself as it is of the bets we make on its completeness or validity. Do we know all we need to know? Example: Chernobyl and the radioactive sheep

12. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Ignorance: a case study http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2c/Flock_of_sheep.jpg

13. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Radioactive sheep Fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster led to years of restrictions on sheep sales and slaughter for hill farms in Cumbria and North Wales Initially government advisors thought there would be no ill effects (beyond 3 weeks) The best science available could not anticipate the soil types involved – caesium remained chemically active in acid peaty soils Wynne, B. (1996) "May the Sheep Safely Graze? A Reflexive View of the Expert-Lay Knowledge Divide." Lash, S., B. Szersynki, and B. Wynne (eds.), Risk, Environment, and Modernity: Towards a New Ecology, Sage, 44-83 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Take_ours!.jpg

14. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Indeterminacy Relations of cause and effect cannot be determined Much indeterminacy arises from human behaviour Is ‘best scientific knowledge’ being adapted to fit the apparent realities of a particular situation, realities that aren’t actually accurate? Are the socio-technical circumstances of the situation being reshaped to help validate scientific knowledge? (see Wynne 1992:15) Chernobyl nuclear reactor following the disaster of 1986 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chernobyl_Disaster.jpg When causal chains or networks are open

15. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Uncertainty: Summary  Risk – know the odds  Uncertainty – know the main parameters  Ignorance – don’t know what it is that we don’t know  Indeterminacy – causal chains are open Risk, uncertainty, ignorance and indeterminacy are overlaid on top of each other, each expressed in terms of the scale of social commitments which bet on scientific knowledge being correct.

16. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy So how does uncertainty create problems? Or, why can’t science tell us what we need to know?

17. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Science does not always produce a timely consensus ‘Global warming sceptics’ were able to find dissenting views as to whether or not human-generated carbon emissions were causing climatic change by enhancing the greenhouse effect. Sarewitz (2004) argues that in many environmental controversies where science is called upon to resolve political disputes, the effect is the opposite. ‘Put simply, for a given value- based position in an environmental controversy, it is often possible to compile a supporting set of scientifically legitimated facts.’ (Sarewitz, 2004: 389) ‘How science makes environmental controversies worse’ Environmental Science and Policy 7: 385-403

18. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Science is a particular way of knowing

19. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Case studies: Contrasting outcomes at the policy/science interface When has science worked to inform policy and avert environmental disaster?

20. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy A – Success: The Ozone Layer Ozone levels measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) NASA http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/ozone_record.html In the case of ozone depletion: the problem and the solution (to reduce the emission of CFC’s) was easily identified and scientists were able to reach a conclusion as to how to deal with the problem which was then adopted by policy makers (as the global 1987 Montreal protocol) Eden, S. (2005) ‘Global and Local Environmental Problems’ in P.Cloke, P. Crang and M. Goodwin (eds) Introducing Human Geographies (Abingdon: Arnold) 271-284

21. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy B – Failure?: Global Warming 1999-2008 mean surface temperature anomalies based on 1940-1980 average Robert A. Rohde. Based on the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Warming_Map.jpg Scientists cannot reach a consensus on the rate, degree or cause of change. There are a large range of factors involved and evidence and predictions may vary widely Pressure groups such as the Global Climate Coalition have a keen interest in arguing that rising temperatures are not definitively linked to increasing CO 2 levels. That CO 2 emissions are an issue of competition and ‘fairness’ isn’t something science anticipates.

22. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy How do we proceed in the face of uncertainty?

23. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy A) Acknowledge that we expect too much of science? ‘The notion that science is a source of facts and theories about reality that can and should settle disputes and guide political action remains a core operating principle of partisans on both sides of environmental controversies.’ (Sarewitz, 2004: 386) Science often cannot predict the outcomes of environmental actions before serious problems arise

24. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy B) Do more to address ignorance? Conventional risk assessments to treat uncertainties as if they were due to incomplete definition of a definable cause-and-effect system. This means that, by filling in our ignorance, we can prevent unpleasant outcomes. Thus more knowledge will lead to narrower uncertainties and better control of environmental risks.

25. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Public Policy: The Precautionary Principle A lack of scientific consensus is not sufficient grounds to postpone taking actions that may prevent damage to the environment First developed in Germany. Allowed the government to justify regulations restricting marine pollution discharges in a case where there was no scientific agreement that harm to the environment had occurred. Shifts the ‘burden of proof’ on to the polluter – legally, it has been up to those affected by discharges to take the matter to the government or through the courts http://www.flickr.com/photos/pictureperfectpose/76138988/

26. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Applying the Precautionary Principle O’Riordan’s (1995) 4 elements of the precautionary principle:  Take thoughtful action in advance of scientific proof  Leave ecological space as room for ignorance  Take care in management  Shift the burden of proof from the victim to the proponent/developer O’Riordan T. (1995) ‘Environmental Science for Environmental Management’ (Harlow, Longman)

27. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy Session Summary You should recognise the 4 forms of uncertainty You should be able to use these 4 forms to interpret the science/policy nexus as it shapes particular environmental controversies You should know the Precautionary Principle and be able to suggest how it might be applied in specific cases

28. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy References Eden, S. (2005) ‘Global and Local Environmental Problems’ in P.Cloke, P. Crang and M. Goodwin (eds) Introducing Human Geographies (Abingdon: Arnold) 271-284 O’Riordan T. (1995) ‘Environmental Science for Environmental Management’ (Harlow, Longman) Sarewitz, D. (2004) ‘How science makes environmental controversies worse’ Environmental Science and Policy 7: 385-403 Wynne, B. (1992) ‘Uncertainty and environmental learning: reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm’ Global Environmental Change 2(2): 111-17 Wynne, B. (1996) "May the Sheep Safely Graze? A Reflexive View of the Expert-Lay Knowledge Divide." Lash, S., B. Szersynki, and B. Wynne (eds.), Risk, Environment, and Modernity: Towards a New Ecology, Sage, 44-83

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30. Dr Deirdre McKay, Keele University, d.c.mckay@esci.keele.ac.uk C-Change in GEES: People and the Environment – Uncertainty: Science and Public Policy AuthorDr Deirdre McKay Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitleUncertainty: Science and Public Policy Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedFebruary 2010 DescriptionUncertainty: Science and Public Policy - Powerpoint Presentation – Part One of People and the Environment Educational Level1 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, indeterminacy, ignorance, risk, precaution Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata