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1 May 17, 2016 Economic Outlook and Trade Opportunity Mr.Chen Namchaisiri Chairman of The Federation of Thai Industries.

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Presentation on theme: "1 May 17, 2016 Economic Outlook and Trade Opportunity Mr.Chen Namchaisiri Chairman of The Federation of Thai Industries."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 May 17, 2016 Economic Outlook and Trade Opportunity Mr.Chen Namchaisiri Chairman of The Federation of Thai Industries

2 Source : IMF (World Economic Outlook : April, 2016) 2016 = 2.4% 2017 = 2.5% 2016 = 1.5% 2017 = 1.6% 2016 = 6.5% 2017 = 6.2% 2016 = 3.2% 2017 = 3.5% 2016 = 0.5% 2017 = - 0.1% World Economic Outlook 2

3 Source : The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board 2011: 0.8% YoY 2012: 7.2% YoY 2013: 2.7% YoY 2014: 0.8% YoY 2015: 2.8% YoY The Economic Growth in Thailand Source : NESDB 3

4 GDP20142015 Q1Q2Q3Q4 GDP0.82.83.02.72.92.8 - Private Consumption0.62.12.51.71.82.5 - Public Consumption2.12.20.71.02.34.8 Investment-2.44.710.32.6-2.69.4 - Private Investment-2.03.7-3.1-10.11.9 - Government Expending-7.329.836.623.221.941.4 Exporting goods and services 0.20.11.21.51.7-3.5 Importing goods and services -5.3-0.42.30.2-2.6-1.3 The Economic Growth in Thailand Source : NESDB 4

5 2012 = 2.7 2013 = 0.8 2014 = 0.7 2015 = -4.2 2012 = 6.9 2013 = 1.7 2014 = -0.2 2015 = 0.9 Source : The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board The Expansion of Agricultural and Industrial Sectors Source : NESDB 5

6 Department20152016* Ministry of Commerce/ Dec 2015 -5.78% 5.0% NESDB / Feb 2016 -5.78% 1.2% JSCCIB/ May 2016 -5.78%0-2.0% 2.8 2.8- 3.8 3.0 2.8 3.1 The Economic Forecasting 2016 6

7 Expanding (Y-o- Y%) 2015 (All year)- 5.78% 2015 (Jan-Mar) -4.71% Expanding (Y-o-Y%) 2016 (Mar) 1.30% 2016 (Jan- Mar) 0.90% Million USD The Exporting Value 2016 Source : Ministry of Commerce 7

8 Expor t Mark ets Valu e (M US$) Gro wth (% Y-o- Y) ASEA N(9) 14,0 76 3.8 5 Japa n 5,41 6 5.6 6 USA5,66 2 - 3.2 1 EU(2 7) 5,52 0 0.1 3 The ratio of Thai Export Markets (Jan - Mar 2016) Source : Ministry of Commerce 8

9 March 2016 = 1.83 % Y-o-Y March 2016 = 86.7 Source : The Office of Industrial Economics Source : F.T.I. Thai Industrial Situation 9

10 Source : Department of Tourism Source : UTCC March 16 =3.0 Millions / 15.4% (Y- o-Y) March 16 = 73.5 Consumer Confidence Index and Tourism Sector 10

11 The currency exchange rate between May 4 th, 2015 – May 4 th, 2016 Japan EU LPDR Hong Kong Cambodia Bangladesh Brunei Singapore Vietnam Indonesia India Thailand Taiwan Philippines South Korea China Myanmar Sri Lanka Malaysia The Currency Comparison between THB and others 11

12 Mar 16 = - 0.46 % Y-o-Y % Mar 16 = 1.04 % Y-o-Y % Feb 16 = 44.1% % GD P Feb 16 = 7.4 Billions US$ Billions US$ 20152016 2015 2016 2015 2016 The Economic Stability 12

13 BOT = Balance of Trade Source : DITP 201320142015 20162017 14/13 15/14 16/15 Jan - Mar Value (Million THB) Total Export Import BOT Changing Ratio (% Y 0 -Y) Border Trade 13

14 A.T.Kearney said that, according to the foreign investment index, Thailand is belonging to 21 st in the index Source : The 2016 A.T.Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index The Attracting Countries for Foreign Investment 14

15 South East Asia Thailand returns to the Index after a two-year absence. An incentive policy to attract IT companies is one element of the strategy to give preferential treatment to foreign projects in the technology sector. 1 2 The political reformation and “Open Policy” support the economic stability in Thailand. Moreover, tourism policy and investment policy also attract income from foreign especially industry 4.0 Thus, interestingly, Thai economic is more stable than others in the world. In ASEAN, Thailand belongs to the second ranking following Singapore Source : The 2016 A.T.Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index 15

16 ASEAN THAI Huge market size/huge population (628M) World manufacturing and production base High volume of Inward and outward FDI Free flow of goods Plenty of young and educated labor forces Benefits from free trade agreements with major regional economies (ASEAN+….) High-valued agricultural products High performance in production/servi ces Ease of doing business Incentive for investment Center connectivity to ASEAN Economic Opportunities In ASEAN and Thailand 18 cluster 16

17 Parliament Ministry of Industry and Relevant Ministries Industrial Development Foundation Government The Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I.) The Cabinet Joint Public Private Consultative Committee Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking The Federation of Thai Industries (F.T.I) “Driving Economy and Nation with Friendly Industries” F.T.I. and Role of Development 17

18 2. Developing Thai Industry with sustainable growth and responsibility for Environment and Society 1. Creating Thai Industry’s Competitiveness by Efficiency, Productivity and Innovation 6. Cooperating with government to support industry sectors 4. Making opportunity from International Trade Agreements 5. Developing Human Resource for Thai Industrial Competency 3. Strengthening Industries by Cluster grouping F.T.I Strategies 18

19 1.Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers 2.Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration 3.Aluminum 4.Auto Parts 5.Automotive 6.Biotech 7.Cement 8.Ceramics 9.Chemical 10.Cosmetics 11.Dietary Supplement 12.Electricals, Electronics, Telecommunications and Allied 13.Environment Management 14.Foundry 15.Food Processing 16.Footwear 17.Furniture 18.Garments 19.Gem and Jewelry 20.Gift and Decorative 21.Glass Manufactures 22.Granite and Marble 23.Herbal 24.Information Technology 25.Leather Based 26.Machinery and Metal Work 27.Medical and Health Device Manufacturers 28.Palm Oil 29.Petro Chemical 30.Petroleum Refining 31.Pharmaceuticals 32.Plastic 33.Power Producer 34.Printing and Paper Packaging 35.Pulp and Paper 36.Renewable Energy 37.Roofing and Accessories 38.Rubber Based 39.Shipbuilding Repairing and Steel Construction 40.Sugar 41. Textile 42. Thai Gas Manufacturers 43. Thai Panel Product 44. Thailand Iron and Steel 45. Wood Processing 45 Industry Clubs 19

20 No. Cluster Industry Club Supporting Cluster 1 Food Processing Cluster Food, Sugar, Palm oil, Printing and paper packaging, Agricultural Machinery, Chemical, Pulp and paper, Plastics, Steel, Herbal, Environmental management, Bio- technology, Renewable energy Gas, Bio- technology, Information technology 2 Natural Rubber and Rubberwood Cluster Rubber product, Furniture, Panel product, Wood Processing, Gift and decorative 3 Fashion & Lifestyle Cluster Textile, Garments, Cosmetics, Footwear, Gift and decorative,Leather product, Furniture, Gem and Jewelry 4 Printing and Packaging Cluster Printing and paper packaging, Pulp and paper, Plastics, Glass, Food, Cosmetics 5 Environment Friendly Energy Cluster Renewable energy, Power producer, Environmental management, Sugar, Agricultural Machinery,Palm oil, Rubber product, Furniture, Panel product, Pulp and paper 6 Health & Beauty Products Cluster Medicine, Herbal, Cosmetics, Bio- technology 7 Engineering Machinery and Metal Work Cluster Machinery and Metal Work, Agricultural Machinery, Shipbuilding, Repairing and Steel Construction 8Automotive Cluster Automotive, Auto parts 9 Electrical Electronics & Air-Conditioning Cluster Electrical, Electronics, telecommunications, Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration 10Petrochemical Cluster Petrochemical, Chemicals, Plastics, Petroleum refining 11 Construction Materials Cluster Cement, Steel, Roofing and Accessories, Granite and Marble, Glass, Ceramic, Wood Processing, Panel product, Electrical, Electronics, telecommunications, Aluminium 12 Agriculture Industry Cluster Agricultural Machinery, Machinery and Metal Work, Sugar, Palm oil, Rubber product, Renewable energy, Food 12 Clusters 20

21 Agro-Based Industry New Wave Industry Hi-Tech Industry High-Value Industry Subject to “Value Chain Collaboration” AEC Product Differentiatio n New Innovation Cost Competition Marketing Data Based Center Labor Productivity 21

22 Promote 12 Clusters Support AEC Promoting new potential industries (Agro–based, New wave) Developing current potential industries (Hi–Tech, Hi–Value Creation) Effectively expanding production base to the region and supporting border trade (Labor intensive, Commodity Based) Supporting Upstream Industries Industrial Restructuring Creating value added along supply chain under Eco - Industry 22

23 Competitiveness Improvement Section GS-1, RFID, IRDI, ICTI, HCI, SMI, IIE, I 4.0 Member Relations Section Industry Club, Provincial F.T.I, Member Relationship Fundamental Factor Section Economics, Trade & Investment,TED, Border trade & SEZ, Logistics, Laws, International Organization, Labor Public Communication Section PR, Income, CSR, Young FTI, TIPMSE, IEI, WIS Core Mechanisms of F.T.I

24 Thank You The Federation of Thai Industries Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, Zone C,4 th Floor, 60 New Rachadapisek Road. Klong Toey, Bangkok 10110 Thailand Tel. (662) 345 1000 Fax. (662) 345 1281-83 http://www.fti.or.th Website : http://www.fti.or.th http://tidic.off.fti.or.th/tidic/ http://tidic.off.fti.or.th/tidic/ 24


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