1. A Systems Approach to the Estimation of Ecosystem and Human Health Stressors in Air, Land and Water Ellen Cooter 1, Robin Dennis 1, Jesse Bash 1, Michelle McCrackin 2 and Val Garcia 1 1/ USEPA/ORD/NERL/AMAD 2/ Washington State University, Vancouver AGU 2013 Fall Meeting San Francisco, CA December 12, 2013

2. 1 Nitrogen is Mission Critical for U.S. EPA Nitrogen is a priority problem for Water –Leading cause of freshwater impairment (e.g., toxic algal blooms) –Major contributor to acidification of fresh waters –Main cause of coastal (estuarine) impairment –A cause of drinking water contamination Nitrogen air emissions impact human health (O 3 & PM 2.5 ) and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (O 3, deposition) Nitrogen is Multi-media in Character –The media are connected by the N-Cascade –Effects cross traditional media-specific regulatory boundaries Approach: modeling tools with multi-media capability

3. 2 Air from Galloway et al. (2003) Land Water Linking the Nitrogen Cascade 2

4. Especially for Nitrogen: Air, Land and Water are Interconnected A One-Environment Capability Can Illuminate Win-Win Cases Agriculture Management Combustion Air Quality Meteorology Hydrology Climate Coastal Impacts Water Quality NO X VOC NH 3 N Deposition N Deposition N2ON2O N,P Load N,P Load Greenhouse Gas (N 2 O) – Climate O 3, PM 2.5 - Health; Visibility - Aesthetics Recreation - Aesthetics; Groundwater Nitrate – Health; Biodiversity Ecosystem Health; Economic Health 3

5. Linkage Progress for Biofuels Case Study 4 Air Quality CMAQ Meteorology WRF Hydrology VIC Climate EPA/AMAD WRF Downscaling Water Quality NEWS NO X VOC NH 3 N Deposition N2ON2ON,P Load N,P Load Eco Health BenMAP Combustion & Ethanol Production SMOKE MARKAL Agriculture Management EPIC Visibility – -Recreation -Aesthetics Human Health -O 3, PM 2.5 ; -Groundwater Nitrate; Recreation; Drinking Water; Ecosystem Health; Economic Health Greenhouse Gas (N 2 O) – Climate Human Health Aquifer BB BenMAP N Deposition Fertilizer N,P Load N Dep Macro- Economics FAPRI Land use change

6. 5 Agriculture Management EPIC Air Quality CMAQ Water Quality NEWS NH 3 N,P Load N,P Load Linkage Examples for Biofuels Case Study Human Health Aquifer BB N Deposition Fertilizer Visibility – -Recreation -Aesthetics Human Health -O 3, PM 2.5 ; -Groundwater Nitrate; Recreation; Water Quality Ecosystem Health; Economic Health Greenhouse Gas (N 2 O) – Climate Combustion & Ethanol Production SMOKE MARKAL Meteorology WRF Hydrology VIC Climate EPA/AMAD WRF Downscaling Eco Health BenMAP NO X VOC N Deposition N2ON2O N,P Load Macro- Economics FAPRI

7. The USDA Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model 6

8. 7 Initial and Boundary Conditions Meteorological Model Concentrations of gases and PM Droplet Chemistry Wet Deposition Dry Deposition PM Chemistry and Dynamics Gas-phase Chemistry Transport CMAQ AQ Model Fluxes of wet and dry deposition ∂C/∂ t = (∂C/∂ t )adv + (∂C/∂ t )diff + (∂C/∂ t )cloud + (∂C/∂ t )drydep + (∂C/∂ t )chem + Emiss Emissions Models incl. FEST-C Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) System

9. 8 Agriculture/land is coupled with air through CMAQ NH 3 bi-directional air-surface exchange To establish a soil compensation point or soil Г g, a bi-directional CMAQ needs to know –Where fertilizer is applied –How much fertilizer is applied –When the fertilizer is applied –How deep the fertilizer is applied and by what equipment This info is not typically available We generate it using EPIC (USDA) The atmosphere-soil NH 4 + budget is simulated in CMAQ dynamically coupled to hourly soil NH 4 + losses due to evasion and nitrification and increases due to NH 3 deposition. The nitrification equations come from EPIC CMAQ NH 3 FLUX X

10. 9 2002 EPIC Fertilizer Demand (kg) Based on County Ag Crop Plant Demand CMAQ5.0.1 with Bi-Directional NH 3 2002 Total N Deposition (kg-N/ha) Daily fertilizer application rate and depth are provided to CMAQ

11. 10 Nutrient Sources Natural N 2 -fixation Atmospheric N deposition Weathering Anthropogenic Fertilizer N 2 -fixation by crops Atmospheric N deposition Manure Sewage Nutrient Sinks Water Quality: Global NEWS Model Land Crop harvest, grazing Retention by soils Sewage treatment River network Consumptive water use Dams and reservoirs Denitrification Mass-balance approach to estimate coastal nutrient loading for >6,000 global catchments; 170 US basins –Particulate, dissolved organic and inorganic forms of C, N, P Source-apportionment estimates for nutrients delivered to river mouths Applied in retrospective (1970 & 2000) and scenario modes (2030 & 2050 for several global scenarios) >25 peer-reviewed papers applying and evaluating NEWS model results, including 2 special sections of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (2005 & 2010) Nutrient loading to coastal waters Nutrient Export from WaterSheds

12. 11 Natural Land NEWS-2 Nutrient Sources and Sinks from the Watershed (land-surface), Sources to Rivers and Export to the River Mouth Agricultural Land Mayorga et al., Environmental Modeling and Software, 2010 CMAQ/EPIC Adapt NEWS to work at a monthly time step Replace agricultural mass balance with that from EPIC Use CMAQ deposition NEWS Adaptations

13. 12 Inorganic fertilizer, organic fertilizer (manure) and biologically fixed N inputs to NEWS from EPIC Total atmospheric N deposition from CMAQ

14. Air, Land and water are linked to examine the vulnerability of groundwater nitrate contamination from increased corn production ln(Y s ) = β 0 + β 1 LU s + β 2 Aq s + β 3 Dep + β 4 ON + β 5 IN + β 6 Pop + epsilon s Study Objective: Examine potential for increased vulnerability for acquiring ‘Blue Baby Syndrome’ as a result of projected increased corn production in 2022 Approach: 618 nitrate measurements from wells across the nation were used to fit various regression models. These models were applied to examine how nitrate in groundwater may change as a result of increased corn production in 2022. The reference dose for oral nitrate exposure will be used to estimate the change in blue baby syndrome risk. β 0 = Mean NO 3 concentration in groundwater with respect to other terms in model β 1 LU s = % Landuse type β 2 Aq s = Primary aquifer (indicator variable) β3Deps = Total atmospheric deposition β 4 ON s = Organic fertilizer application β 5 IN s = Inorganic fertilizer application β 6 Pop s = Population density where E(epsilon) = 0 and Cov(epsilon) = spherical covariance function based on distance CMAQ EPIC Location of groundwater nitrate measurements overlain on primary aquifer

15. 14 Conclusions Addressing emerging environmental issues associated with excess N in air, land and water media requires a linked, system- wide approach. A working paradigm based on the nitrogen cascade has been proposed and adapted to address particular multi-meda environmental problems through to their human and ecological effect endpoints. Substantial progress has been made in establishing these links, with complete results expected in the near future.

16. Thank You 15