1. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)1 Healthy Food for All: Do we need a systems change in bioeconomy chains? Institute for Environmental Studies VU University (IVM-VU) De Boelelaan 1087 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands Harry Aiking SUSTAINABLE FOOD 3 rd Bioeconomy Forum, Brussels – 3 December 2014

2. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)2 The big picture  Food sustainability and food security  Prioritizing environmental impacts impacts  Why nitrogen and protein are pivotal  Strategies to reduce impacts options  Citizens, consumers, cultural aspects  European diets and policy approach  Future trends unfolding

3. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)3 Food sustainability  Sustainability: huge range of definitions!  Ecology, Economy, Society (People Planet Profit)  Sustainable food production (and consumption?)  Human health, equity, animal welfare included?  Culture, context and time dependent  Sustainability is a moving target!

4. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)4 Sustainability: dynamic equilibrium?

5. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)5 The challenge... By 2050 – within 40 years! – we will need 60% more food to feed 2 billion more mouths... (FAO, 2012), but Tomlinson (2013) & UN Population Division (2014):  for food security we need to double yield / ha, so  for sustainability we need to quarter impacts / ton

6. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)6 Yield increases are slowing down... 1.6% per year 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% (2.4% needed) Source: Ray et al. (2013) PLOSone e66428

7. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)7 A safe operating space for humanity Source: Rockström et al. (2009) Nature 461, 472-475

8. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)8 Prioritizing impacts (boundary = 1) 1. Biodiversity loss >10 2. Nitrogen cycle 3.45 3. Climate change 1.1-1.5 4. Phosphate cycle0.77-0.86 5. Ocean acidification 0.81 6. Land-use change 0.78 7. Freshwater use 0.65 8. Ozone depletion 0.50

9. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)9 Natural carbon cycle 0.04% atmospheric carbon dioxide planthuman animal

10. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)10 Current carbon cycle 0.04% atmospheric carbon dioxide planthuman combustion of coal and oil animal + 1-2%

11. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)11 Natural nitrogen cycle bacterial degradation 78% atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) protein synthesis by plantshuman ammonia synthesis (NH 3 ) by lightning and bacteria animal ammonia emissions

12. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)12 Current nitrogen cycle bacterial degradation + 100-200% 78% atmospheric nitrogen (N 2 ) protein synthesis by plantshuman ammonia synthesis (NH 3 ) by lightning and bacteria ammonia synthesis (NH 3 ) by Haber-Bosch process animal ammonia emissions

13. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)13 Algal bloom in the Gulf of Mexico

14. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)14 Dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico

15. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)15 Dead zone in the BaItic Sea Source: Carstensen et al. (2014) PNAS 111, 5628-5633 Average annual oxygen levels (red <2 mg/L; black 0 mg/L)

16. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)16 Impacts on any coastal shelf...

17. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)17 Nitrogen and protein are pivotal  Human contribution to C cycle 1-2%; N 100-200%  C-cycle > biodiversity  Energy content of nitrogen fertilizer = 37% of all energy input in US agriculture  Crops take up 50% of fertilizer  impacts on: –terrestrial ecosystems (via ammonia emissions) –aquatic ecosystems (via eutrophication)

18. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)18 FAO projections (2009) Note: 3 billion people maximum without N-fertilizers

19. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)19 Protein inefficiency of factory farming  40% of global grain harvest and 70% of soy to livestock  food and feed crops are competing for land + water  alternative: direct human plant protein consumption  1 kg animal protein requires 6 kg plant protein (resource loss)  moreover, biodiversity loss via ammonia emissions (pollution)

20. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)20 Strategies to reduce impacts  Resource efficiency is crucial - in the whole chain: A Biorefinery “cascade” required: food  feed  fibre  feedstock  fuel A Rethink irrigation & cropping systems (e.g. algae) I Novel Protein Foods, low in energy & egg white I Upgrade rest streams (pigs, insects, fish) C War on food waste C Diet change

21. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)21 Cultural aspects: hunter-gatherers

22. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)22 Protein source (g/day)lowcountryhighcountry Beef & veal4,6DE10,4IT Mutton & goat0,1FI5,4EL Pork6,7UK22,7AT Poultry4,6SE11,7IE Offal0,5DK9,6IE Fish & shellfish2,9AT15,7PT Dairy (including cheese)13,9ES28,2NL Eggs2,1IE5,0FR Cereals17,6NL35,5IT Potatoes1,6IT5,5PT Pulses<0,143,7ES Vegetables2,1FI7,7EL Stimulants (coffee)<0,1EL2,6DK Plant protein32,6NL53,3EL Animal protein55,3UK76,2FR Total protein95,8DE118,9PT Globalisation? (RDI = 50 to 60 g/day)

23. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)23 Health aspects of animal production  Antibiotics resistant bacteria (MRSA, ESBL, etc.) originate in intensive farming (including fish farms), rather than in hospitals, because health care use ≈ 15% of total use  Zoonotic and emerging diseases (Avian influenza, SARS, MERS, BSE, Q fever, etc.) are on the rise as a result of: 1) increasing herd size (sheer number of animals) 2) poultry and pigs crowding on urban areas  Amplification by climate change seems inevitable

24. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)24 If Michelangelo were to live today …

25. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)25 Dietary change required Consumer recommendations (PROFETAS, 2006): 1.reduce overall protein intake by one third 2.replace one third by plant-derived proteins 3.replace one third by extensively produced meat (such as most beef and lamb)

26. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)26 Food prices Source: IPCC (30 March 2014) AR5 Chapter 7: Food security

27. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)27 Future trends  “Global food prices are predicted to rise by 70-90% by 2030.”  “It is likely that over the next 20 years businesses will be required to shoulder more of the financial costs of their environmental impacts”. (KPMG, 2012) In addition, there will be impacts from:  “peak oil” and “peak phosphate”, projected by 2030  climate change, which will take its toll from 2050

28. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)28 Conclusions  Double food production & quarter impacts by 2050? The urgency is severely underestimated!  Resource efficiency requires a transition in all chains  Multiple gains: public health, equity, biodiversity, climate, animal welfare, EU protein & biofuel self-sufficiency  Sustainable protein supply is crucial to food security, human health and the planet’s carrying capacity  Diet change is crucial: consumers and industry should take their responsibilities, and governments should lead!

29. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)29 www.profetas.nl SUSTAINABLE PROTEIN FOODS Thank you for your attention! For more details: Aiking (2014) American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 100, 483S-489S