1. As we wait for class to start, please sign in for today’s attendance tracking: Text to 37607: Times48 netID Go online to AEM 4550 class website Click on “attendance tracking” – in green font Submit your netID or

2. AEM 4550: Economics of Advertising Prof. Jura Liaukonyte LECTURE 9: ADVERTISING COSTS AND MEDIA, ECONOMICS OF ONLINE ADVERTISING

3. Advertising Avoidance

4. DVR Penetration

7. A Major Concern:  47% of [DVR] respondents skip ads most of the time (Jupiter Media)  American Advertising Federation poll finds ¾ of ad execs feel DVRs significantly affect TV advertisement methods

8. DVRs and ad avoidance  DVRs may increase commercial avoidance, BUT:  Facilitate the measurement of commercial avoidance  Advertisers can use ad avoidance data to improve creative strategies, targeting, message rotation and scheduling, media buying, and ROI (return on investment) measurements  The very act of fast-forwarding requires that the viewer pays attention  Alternatives: viewers getting up to go to the fridge or the bathroom or turning away to the computer or to talk to someone else in the room or flipping the remote around the channels  There can be a real effect on purchasing behavior due to the attention required

9. Advertisers Adapting  Advertisers figure out ways to take advantage of the attention fast-forwarding requires  Improve ad creative itself  Reduce viewers’ motivations to fast-forward

10. Advertisers Adapting  Advertisers can use information gathered from DVRs to figure out how to combat fast-forwarding  Target niche audiences to tailor more effective advertising  TiVo’s Stop||Watch is tracking second-by-second viewing among all users and 20,000 DVR users with demographic data known  Networks adopt to fast-forwarded commercials by:  Further integrating products into programming – product placement  Tricking viewers by changing the length of commercials  Integrating Tune-ins for the show that is being watched  Downside: may annoy viewers

12. One Early Study Finds No DVR Effect  Why no DVR effect?  Advertising has small effects to start with  People do not skip many ads  People in control group zap anyhow  People attend to what they skip  Mandese (2004) finds 67% of DVR viewers notice the advertisements they forward through  Multiple ad viewing from repeat plays

14. More recent findings (Wilbur 2015):  Viewers were much less likely to avoid ads during:  animated programs (31%-59%),  followed by professional basketball (25%-36%),  game shows (23%-36%) and  situation comedies (26%-33%).  Five product categories were found to reduce ad-avoidance:  quick service restaurants,  domestic hybrid automobiles,  family clothing stores,  pizza products and  movies.

15. More recent findings (Wilbur 2015):  Networks with highest ad skipping:  MSNBC,  CBS,  Lifetime,  NBC,  Discovery  Precipitation increases advertising avoidance, with one inch of rain associated with a 2%-24% higher ad skipping probability.

16. Online Advertising

17. ONLINE ADVERTISING Online Advertising  Partially Based on HBS case “Google Advertising”, which is a required reading  Online Advertising Models  Measurability  Google Advertising Revenues

18. Online Ad Formats  Floating ad: An ad which moves across the user's screen or floats above the content.  Expanding ad: An ad which changes size and which may alter the contents of the webpage.  Polite ad: A method by which a large ad will be downloaded in smaller pieces to minimize the disruption of the content being viewed.  Wallpaper ad: An ad which changes the background of the page being viewed.  Trick banner: A banner ad that looks like a dialog box with buttons. It simulates an error message or an alert.  Pop-up: A new window which opens in front of the current one, displaying an advertisement, or entire webpage.  Pop-under: Similar to a Pop-Up except that the window is loaded or sent behind the current window so that the user does not see it until they close one or more active windows.  Video ad: similar to a banner ad, except that instead of a static or animated image, actual moving video clips are displayed.  Map ad: text or graphics linked from, and appearing in or over, a location on an electronic map such as on Google Maps.  Mobile ad: an SMS text or multi-media message sent to a cell phone.

19. Search Advertising  Highly effective since it reaches people when they are interested in a topic  Relevant, yet not obtrusive  Has expanded rapidly in last few years

20. Online Advertising Measurability  Huge advantage in measuring effectiveness  Pay per click  Conversion tracking  Value of ranking system  Ranks ads by bid x ad quality  Show ads likely to get the most valuable clicks in the most prominent position  E.g., “best ads get best exposure”  Creates a virtuous circle: individuals want to click because results are relevant

21. Search Advertising  Search advertising estimated to be 6 times more effective than a banner ad  Delivers qualified leads  80% of Internet user sessions begin at the search engines (Source: Internetstats.com)  55% of online purchases are made on sites found through search engine listings (Source: Internetstats.com)

22. Search Engines Market Share (2014)

24. Internet Advertising Models  For what exactly should advertisers pay and when?  When the ad is being shown to the user  When the ad is being clicked by the user  When the ad has “influenced” the user in the sense that its presentation lead to a “conversion event”  Conversion event - the actual purchase of the product advertised in the ad  Why wouldn’t an advertiser favor number 1?

25. Google Revenues

27. Advertising Payment Methods  CPM – Cost per Mille – an advertiser pays per one thousand impressions of the ad (“Mille” stands for “thousand” in Latin);  an alternative term used in the industry for this payment model is CPI (Cost per Impression).  CPC – Cost per Click (a.k.a. Pay per Click or PPC; we will use these terms interchangeably) – an advertiser pays only when a visitor clicks on the ad.  CPA – Cost per Action – an advertiser only pays when a certain conversion action takes place, such as a product being purchased, an advertised item was placed into a shopping cart, or a certain form being filled.  This is the best option for an advertiser to pay for the ads from the advertisers’ point of view

28. PAY-PER-CLICK Advertising Model  Targeted advertisement based on two effectiveness measures: 1. Click-Through Rate (CTR): specifies on how many ads X, out of the total number of ads Y shown to the visitors, the visitors actually clicked; in other words, CTR = X/Y. CTR measures how often visitors click on the ad 2. Conversion Rate: it specifies the percentage of visitors who took the conversion action. Conversion rate gives a sense of how often visitors actually act on a given ad, which is a better measure of ad’s effectiveness than the CTR measure

29. Recent History of CPC Method  Cost Per Click is the predominant advertising payment method, made popular by search engines such a Google and Overture (now part of Yahoo!).  Google introduced CPC AdWords program in 2002.  Combining a particular ad payment method with a particular targeting method. For Google and Yahoo! the two main models are the keyword-based PPC and the content-based PPC models.

30. Cost Per Click Two problems with the Cost per click model:  Although correlated, good click-through rates are still not indicative of good conversion rates  It does not offer any “built in” fundamental protection mechanisms against the click fraud