1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ag Outlook Van Gorp Insurance Meeting Pella, Iowa Feb. 11, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)86.488.291.997.295.4 Yield(bu./acre)164.7152.8147.2123.4158.8 Production(mil. bu.)13,09212,44712,36010,78013,925 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,128989821 Imports(mil. bu.)8282916235 Total Supply(mil. bu.)14,77414,18213,51711,93214,781 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1254,7954,5574,3355,300 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,5915,0195,0004,6485,000 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3701,4071,4281,3961,400 Exports(mil. bu.)1,9801,8341,5437311,600 Total Use(mil. bu.)13,06613,05512,52811,11113,300 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,7081,1289898211,481 Season-Average Price($/bu.)3.555.186.226.894.50 Source: USDA-WAOB

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20092010201120122013 Area Planted(mil. acres)77.577.475.077.276.5 Yield(bu./acre)44.043.541.939.843.3 Production(mil. bu.)3,3593,3293,0943,0343,289 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)138151215169141 Imports(mil. bu.)1514163630 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,5123,4953,3253,2393,459 Crush(mil. bu.)1,7521,6481,7031,6891,700 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)110130889099 Exports(mil. bu.)1,4991,5011,3651,3201,510 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,3613,2803,1553,0993,309 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)151215169141150 Season-Average Price($/bu.)9.5911.3012.5014.4012.70 Source: USDA-WAOB

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage 201020152020202520302035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2010 Value) United States18.9101%103%101%99%98% Canada2.2103%100%98% 99% Mexico2.4105%110%117%127%138% Europe14.891%93% 94% Japan4.4106%101%99%97%94% China9.3125%146%165%178%195% India3.3113%134%158%186%217% Africa3.4105%107%112%119%126% Central and South America6.0108%110%114%121%128% World86.7106%111%116%120%126% Source: DOE-EIA

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/10/2014 4.49 4.40 4.46

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/10/2014 12.78 10.84 10.63

21. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

22. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Prices vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre

23. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

24. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Crop Prices

25. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Crop Margins

26. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good  Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go?  Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (2/10/14) 2014/15 Futures (2/10/14) Corn$6.89$4.50$4.49$4.40 Soybeans$14.40$12.70$12.78$10.84

27. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/