1. Will Terrorism and the ‘War on Terror’ Ever End? Joseph A. Camilleri St Michael's on Collins 7 April 2016 1

2. Understanding terrorism and the ‘war on terror’: Why it matters 2

3. What is Terrorism?  It is the use of terror as a psychological device to achieve political ends.  Is it something new? No, it is as old as human history.  Who has used terror in the past? Groups large and small:  Powerful groups (e.g. governments) out to consolidate their rule  Weak organisations that want to overthrow or undermine a government or power structure 3

4. Why the focus on the Islamic Connection? Most obviously because much terrorism:  takes place in Muslim countries, or  is perpetrated by groups invoking Islam as their justification. But a good deal of terrorism has taken place elsewhere or for different reasons:  Northern Ireland  Former Yugoslavia  Spain  Sri Lanka  Colombia  India 4

5. Why the focus on the Islamic Connection? Other factors at work:  West generally, and US in particular, believe terror associated with Islamic groups is aimed directly against their interests  Islamic militancy is feared because:  Muslim world accounts for the bulk of world’s exportable oil  Several Muslim countries are deemed politically or strategically crucial to US interests  Islamic militancy threatens the survival of compliant governments in the Muslim world  The fight against militant or fanatical Islam is a useful way of dividing the world between the forces of good and evil Politics of bifurcation = a useful lever for maintaining US global leadership 5

6. Attacks on US Interests prior to September 11 April 1983 Suicide bombing outside US embassy in West Beirut, 63 killed including 17 Americans, 100 wounded, including 40 Americans Oct 1983 Suicide bomb attacks on US Marines Compound in Beirut (241 killed and over 100 wounded) Sept 1984 UN embassy building East Beirut attacked by suicide bomber leaving 8 dead and dozens wounded June 1985 TWA airliner hijacked. 39 hostages freed after 2 weeks Dec 1988 Lockerbie disaster, 270 killed Feb 1993 Car bomb explosion World Trade Center NY: 6 killed, 1,000 injured June 1996 Car bomb destroys transport facility, Saudi Arabia, 19 killed, 515 injured Nov 1997 Mass shooting, Luxor, 62 (mostly European / Japanese tourists) killed Aug 1998 Car bomb attacks on 2 US embassies with a total of 5,341 casualties Oct 2000 Suicide attack – USS Cole docked in Yemen, 17 dead, 30 injured.

7. US Response to September 11 On 20 September 2001, President George W. Bush addressed a joint session of Congress and a national television audience:  On September 11th, enemies of freedom committed an act of war against our country.  the United States of America makes the following demands on the Taliban: Deliver to US authorities all the leaders of Al Qaida who hide in your land.  The Taliban must act and act immediately. They will hand over the terrorists, or they will share in their fate.  “Our war on terror begins with Al Qaida”  Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. 7

8. US Response to September 11 On the heels of the fateful September 20 speech came the announcement of 7 October 2001: The military intervention in Afghanistan, which continues to this day, set the United States and the rest of the world on a course from which it will take a long time to recover. 8 On my orders, the United States military has begun strikes against Al Qaeda terrorist training camps and military installations of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

9. Terrorist Attacks since 2001 2002 11 April Bomb attack on synagogue in Tunisia kills 21 people, including 18 German tourists 6 October A crew member dies after bomb attack on French oil tanker off the coast of Yemen 12 October A bomb explodes in Bali nightclub killing 202 people, many of them Westerners 28 November 2 attacks launched against Israeli targets in Mombasa, Kenya – hotel blast kills 16 9

10. Terrorist Attacks since 2001 2003 12 May At least 34 people killed in bomb attacks in Riyadh – carried out against luxury compounds housing foreign nationals and offices of US-Saudi company 16 MayCasablanca hit by series of suicide bombings that kill 41 people, including 12 attackers 5 November At least 23 people killed and more than 300 injured in two devastating attacks on synagogues in Istanbul 8 November Bomb attack on housing complex in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – 17 people are killed and more than 100 injured in the blast, mostly foreign Arab workers 20 November In coordinated attacks on British Consulate and the HSBC bank offices in Istanbul, 27 people die and more than 450 are injured 10

11. Terrorist Attacks since 2001 2004 11 March Devastating terror attacks in Madrid – 10 bombs explode on 4 trains in 3 stations during morning rush hour, killing 191 people and injuring at least 1,800 21 April Suicide bomb attack in Riyadh kills four people and injures at least 148 1 May Gunmen kill at least 5 Westerners in attacks in Saudi Arabian port city of Yanbu 29 MayMilitant shooting spree and siege kill 22 in Saudi Arabia 18 JuneUS engineer beheaded in Saudi Arabia 9 SeptemberBomb attack at Australian embassy in Jakarta kills at least nine people and injures more than 180 others 11

12. Terrorist Attacks since 2001 Number of terrorist attacks: 20011,882 201416,818 Progression over 15-year period https://www.facebook.com/RTvids/videos/1088965661113686/ 12

13. Deaths from Terrorism 2000-2014 Deaths from terrorism have increased dramatically over the last 15 years. The number who have died from terrorist activity has increased ninefold since the year 2000. 13

14. Paris Attacks November 2015 At least 129 people are known to have died in terror attacks in Paris. The attacks, claimed by Islamic State militants, hit a concert hall, a major stadium, restaurants and bars. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34819436 14

15. Paris Attacks November 2015 French Father Explains Paris Terrorist Attacks to Young Son http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/french- father-explains-paris-attacks-to-young-son-watch-w157861 15

16. What of the ‘War on Terror’? The key element has been a series of military interventions Afghanistan Iraq Libya Africa Syria 16

17. CCivilian War Deaths MMilitary Deaths:7,750Police:14,200 UUS Military Casualties (2001-April 2015) Dead:2,357Wounded:>20,000 AAllied Casualties Dead: about 800Wounded:many thousands SSecurity Contractors Dead: about 3,400 TTaliban and other insurgents Estimated: 35,000 Watson Institute, Brown University http://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2015/War%20Related%20Casualties%20Afghanistan%20and%20Pakistan%202001-2014%20FIN.pdf AFGHANISTAN 2001-2014 17

18. Pakistan Death Toll from Major Terrorist Attacks More that 500 people have been killed since December 2014 18

19. Documented 156,175 – 174,664 Further analysis of WikiLeaks' Iraq War Logs may add 10,000 deaths Total violent deaths including combatants up to 242,000 Nearly 15,000 civilians have died since March 2015 Iraq Body Count https://www.iraqbodycount.org/ IRAQ Civilian Deaths From Violence 19

20. Iraq Deaths from Terrorism 2014 20

21. 2011 (prior to NATO intervention)Maximum 1000 2011 (after NATO intervention)10,000 – 30,000 2012500 2013 500 20142825 20151523 As of 27 March 2016333 Libya Deaths from Violence 2011-2016 21

22. Syria Deaths from Violence 2011-2016 22

23. NIGERIA Civilian Deaths From Violence 23

24. By 2012 Afghanistan and Iraq$2,000,000,000,000 Full cost allowing for medical care of wounded veterans and expensive repairs to US forces depleted by these wars $4–6,000,000,000,000 The legacy of decisions taken during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will dominate future federal budgets for decades to come. Linda Bilnes Harvard Kennedy School Cost of Military Intervention 24

25. AFGHANISTAN 2011-2014  2.6 million refugees – almost 10% of the country's entire population. By 2016  3.12 million refugees – 12% of population IRAQ By 2014 (11 years after 2003 invasion)  2 million refugees  2 million internally displaced Refugee Crisis 25

26. Terrorism in Contemporary Islam ISLAM ISLAMISM VIOLENT JIHAD TERRORISM 26