1. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Example of hydrological modelling Slobodan Nickovic World Weather Research Programme World Meteorological Organization, Geneva with contributions in [B]: G. Pejanovic, M. Vujadinovic, V. Djurdjevic, B. Rajkovic (Belgrade University)

2. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 HYDRO1k USGS topography HYDROSHED-500m FAO soil texture data USGS land use data DATASETS: HYdrology PROgnostic Model integrated system Example of hydrological modelling Nickovic, et al (2010), HYPROM hydrology surface runoff prognostic model, Water Resour. Res.

3. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 HYPROM - Full dynamic (FD) equation concept Kinematic approximation neglects inertia forces !!

4. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Full dynamics (FD) vs. kinematics (KN)  FD model more accurate  FD: friction slope term requires special treatment (Froude number >2)  KN: simplifications avoid problem (Froude number <2)  Most watershed models adapt KN approach  KN cannot accurately represent large-scale, more inert processes

5. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Kinematic approx Not appropriate for basins with slow slow flows Acceptable for flesh floods (where friction and gradient forces are in approx. balance)  Full dynamic system to be used

6. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Friction slope Potential source of model instability when FD requires completely different numerical approach to resolve the Instability due to vanishing water heights!

7. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Friction slope numerics Water depth is in the dominator of friction slope terms Generates numerical instability when depth vanishes Usual approach - water depths to be above a threshold (not a physically-based approach)

8. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Friction slope numerics – new approach Implicit time scheme applied unconditionally stable method convergent for when then physically based method

9. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Nickovic, et al (2010) Friction slope numerics – new approach

10. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Horizontal semi-staggered E grid used the same as the NMM grid problem with gravity wave short wave noise new method to resolve the problem – modification of the continuity equation

11. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Synthetic sink experiment with HYPROM Without modificationWith modification

12. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Advection numerics (Janjic, 1997) conserves mass no new extremes no negative values

13. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 River routing River path: A-B-C-D-E-F Mass conserving River –collector from surrounding points Same numerics as for non-river points

14. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Savinja case – Oct/Nov 2000 Torrential rain Landslides 7 deaths, quite a damage Complex topography Kobold and Suselj, 2005 Savinja basin

15. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Savinja case – Oct/Nov 2000 NMM T and V at 850 hPa, 1 Nov 2000 NMM acc. rainfall, 26 Oct – 6 Nov 2000 Savinja basin

16. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Savinja case – Oct/Nov 2000 River discharge over period 26/10 – 6/11 1990

17. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 Moraca river experiment (Nov 2002 – May 2003) Snow melting case Seasonal-scale run Problem with soil types

18. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 parameter Clay Loam (09) Bedrock (15) sat. diffusivity0.113 x 10 -4 0.136 x 10 -3 sat. conductivity2.45 x 10 -6 1.41 x 10 -4 porosity0.4650.20 CH constant8.172.79 Sensitivity to soil type

19. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 model vs. observations discharge 2008 case 2008 water budget components 2008 accumulations

20. WWRP- GAW INCA-CE 5 th Joint Progress Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 6-8 2012 climate studies Bojana river: Buna Bridge discharge