1. Impact of non-petroleum vehicle fuel economy on GHG mitigation potential Jason M. Luk, Bradley A. Saville, Heather L. MacLean University of Toronto ONSEP Annual Workshop April 20-22, 2016

2. Low Carbon Fuel Standards regulate well- to-wheel GHGs

3. Fuel producers must sell fuels that are less carbon intensive on a per MJ basis

4. Well-to-wheel GHGs depend on vehicle fuel economy

5. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards regulate automaker fleets

6. Consumers are reluctant to pay higher vehicle prices for fuel efficiency technologies

7. CAFE includes credits for dedicated non- petroleum fuel vehicles Gasoline High-Efficiency CNG Mid-Efficiency CNG Low-Efficiency CNG

8. Battery electric vehicle fuel economy cannot increase at the same rate as gasoline vehicles Gasoline BEV

9. Battery electric vehicle fuel economy could decrease to improve driving range Gasoline Mid-Distance BEV Short-Distance BEV Long-Distance BEV

10. We examined incremental life cycle ownership costs and GHGs of hypothetical 2025 vehicles Higher Ownership Costs Higher well-to- wheel GHGs

11. Increasing BEV driving range also increases vehicle price, ownership costs and GHGs

12. Given uncertainties, natural gas electricity use could result in higher GHGs than gasoline use

13. Low efficiency CNG use can result in higher GHGs than high efficiency gasoline use

14. Improving CNG use efficiency increases vehicle price without reducing ownership costs

15. Honda Civic has optional natural gas powertrain that lowers fuel economy

16. Tesla Model S has optional larger battery pack that lowers fuel economy

17. BMW i3 has optional gasoline engine back up that lowers fuel economy

18. Conclusions  Incumbent technologies can improve  Emerging technologies may not reach maximum potential  Emerging technologies have environmental trade-offs  Life cycle assessments (like life cycle costing) quantifies the relationships among different technologies/activities and is thus both very informative and imprecise

19. Thank You