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Institute for Environment and Sustainability1 Date & Time 09:30 - 10:30Status review and improvements  BaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)

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Presentation on theme: "Institute for Environment and Sustainability1 Date & Time 09:30 - 10:30Status review and improvements  BaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Institute for Environment and Sustainability1 Date & Time 09:30 - 10:30Status review and improvements  BaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)  Improvements to emission inventory (20’)  Improvements to meteorology (20’) JRC 10:30 - 10:55Model evaluation: CHIMEREINERIS 10:55 – 11:15Coffee Break 11:15 - 11:40Model evaluation: EMEPEMEP 11:40 - 12:05Model evaluation: CAMxCESI 12:05 - 12:30Model evaluation: RCGFUB Lunch break 14:00 - 14:25Model evaluation: AURORAVITO 14:25 - 14:50Model evaluation: TCAMUniv. Brescia 14:50 - 15:20Model results: Overview & discussionJRC 15:20 - 15:40Coffee break 15:40 - 16:25Emission scenarios & Future simulationsJRC 16:25 - 16:45AOBJRC

2 Institute for Environment and Sustainability2 Brescia meeting review & Definition of the new base case

3 Institute for Environment and Sustainability3 3 km6 km50 km

4 Institute for Environment and Sustainability4

5 5 To be checked by modelling groups CHIMERE : scale consistency of the results between 3 and 6 km (time step?) EMEP : Problems related with meteorology (high peaks in mountain areas) CAMx : Good correlations but high summer O3 values. RCG : Temporal distribution for PM components AURORA : Only two months available. High O3 summer values TCAM : Good performance for O3 but strange seasonal distribution for PM Results Overview: Brescia (February 2009) Overall: - Large underestimation of the PM levels. - Large variability among models for O3 levels

6 Institute for Environment and Sustainability6 Check individual models Model presentations: Improvements to the models & interpretation of the results Check emissions (Cinzia) Check meteorology (Emilia) Sensitivity tests Definition of a new base- case

7 Institute for Environment and Sustainability7 Meteorology 1.Wind speed divided by 2 at surface, unchanged at model top, linear decrease in between 2.Increase of roughness length uniform to 0.5 m everywhere 3.Use of nudging option in MM5 Emissions 1.Seasonal re-allocation of wood burning emissions (PM & VOC *1.3, NOx unchanged) 2.Uncertainty on emission factors from wood burning (PM * 2.3, VOC * 1.3) 3.Uncertainty on emission factors from transport (PM & VOC * 1.25, NOx * 1.1) 4.Impact of temporal distribution of the heating emissions (in terms of degree-days) Informatic 1.From 32 to 64 bits machine General 1.Impact of local (i.e. Po-Valley) surface and point sources 2.Impact of transport and residential heating sector sources 3.Impact of NH3 emissions Sensitivity runs: CHIMERE, January, 6km

8 Institute for Environment and Sustainability8

9 9

10 10 Check emissions Check meteorology Sensitivity tests Definition of a new base-case 1.Nudged MM5 meteorology 2.New temporal factors for wood burning

11 Institute for Environment and Sustainability11 6 km3 km CHIMEMEPCAMxRCGAURORATCAMCHIMCAMxRCGTCAM 100-110- 111 BC2005 (1) 200-210- 211 BC2005 (2) 300-310- 311 2012 CLE Notes - MM5 meteorological data (Kz = 0 from 18/06 to 12/08) - All model results uploaded in the tool Delivery status

12 Institute for Environment and Sustainability12 Date & Time 09:30 - 10:30Status review and improvements  BaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)  Improvements to emission inventory (20’)  Improvements to meteorology (20’) JRC 10:30 - 10:55Model evaluation: CHIMEREINERIS 10:55 – 11:15Coffee Break 11:15 - 11:40Model evaluation: EMEPEMEP 11:40 - 12:05Model evaluation: CAMxCESI 12:05 - 12:30Model evaluation: RCGFUB Lunch break 14:00 - 14:25Model evaluation: AURORAVITO 14:25 - 14:50Model evaluation: TCAMUniv. Brescia 14:50 - 15:20Model results: Overview & discussionJRC 15:20 - 15:40Coffee break 15:40 - 16:25Emission scenarios & Future simulationsJRC 16:25 - 16:45AOBJRC

13 Institute for Environment and Sustainability13 Model results OVERVIEW

14 Institute for Environment and Sustainability14 Base case 2 Base case 1 vs. Base case 2 Impact of spatial resolution: 6 km vs. 3 km First results for 2012 CLE scenario Conclusions & discussion

15 Institute for Environment and Sustainability15 BC2

16 Institute for Environment and Sustainability16 PM10

17 Institute for Environment and Sustainability17 BC1 O3

18 Institute for Environment and Sustainability18 BC1 O3

19 Institute for Environment and Sustainability19 BC1 vs. BC2 PM10

20 Institute for Environment and Sustainability20 BC2: Change in emissions PM2.5 – PM10VOC Mountain Plain

21 Institute for Environment and Sustainability21 OBS +13% -20% +10%- - +8%

22 Institute for Environment and Sustainability22 Emis. Incr. -15% +5% +30% +45% +20% 0%

23 Institute for Environment and Sustainability23

24 Institute for Environment and Sustainability24 45% 10% 8% 2% 15% 47%

25 Institute for Environment and Sustainability25 LombardyIspra MilanBormio PM10 BC1 BC2

26 Institute for Environment and Sustainability26 BC1 vs. BC2 O3

27 Institute for Environment and Sustainability27 No major change with the exception of RCG: Net improvement

28 Institute for Environment and Sustainability28

29 Institute for Environment and Sustainability29 LombardyIspra MilanBormio O3 BC1 BC2

30 Institute for Environment and Sustainability30 BC1 vs. BC2 Other species

31 Institute for Environment and Sustainability31 BC1

32 Institute for Environment and Sustainability32 BC2

33 Institute for Environment and Sustainability33 BC1

34 Institute for Environment and Sustainability34 BC2

35 Institute for Environment and Sustainability35 6km vs. 3 km

36 Institute for Environment and Sustainability36 O3 July CAMx

37 Institute for Environment and Sustainability37 PM10 January CAMx

38 Institute for Environment and Sustainability38

39 Institute for Environment and Sustainability39 BC1

40 Institute for Environment and Sustainability40 BC1

41 Institute for Environment and Sustainability41 ISPRA 72.6 76.7 33.8 40.3 January

42 Institute for Environment and Sustainability42 20.1 21.5 45.0 45.9

43 Institute for Environment and Sustainability43 2012 CLE

44 Institute for Environment and Sustainability44

45 Institute for Environment and Sustainability45 Bound. conditions PM 10%

46 Institute for Environment and Sustainability46 Bound. conditions O3 5%

47 Institute for Environment and Sustainability47 Conclusions

48 Institute for Environment and Sustainability48 There is an overall improvement with the BC2 results, especially for PM. Levels are in average 10% larger in winter and correlations and predictions of exceed. days are improved. O3 is mostly unchanged and in good agreement with observations (averages and time variations). PM is still largely underestimated (35% yearly for the model ensemble) Importance of meteorology (sensitivity tests & BC2) Speciation (Ispra). Good for SIA (TCAM?) but lack of Particulate organic matter No impact from 6 to 3 km Little impact of 2012 CLE emission reductions (5 to 10% decrease for PM and 5 to 10% increase for O3 averages)

49 Institute for Environment and Sustainability49 Models do react differently to the BC2 changes (e.g. EMEP, RCG…). Temporal variations are shifted: many models predict higher concentrations in Oct-Nov and show little changes between BC1 and BC2. Some models do show opposite behaviour (EMEP) Impact of scale resolution (from 50 to 6) for PM is very different for EMEP and CHIMERE (55% vs 3% for BC2 yearly, 75% vs. -3% winter). For summer O3, it is more consistent: 30% vs 50%. No major changes for O3 overall averages but significant changes in terms of correlation and standard deviation for RCG and TCAM. Some significant changes in PM speciation for some models (e,g. POM for TCAM) Further work: - Understand better model differences - 6km vs 3 km - Meteorology - Vertical profiles

50 Institute for Environment and Sustainability50 Scenario planning

51 Institute for Environment and Sustainability51 EuropePo-ValleyLombardy 2005 BC 2005 BC1 2005 BC2 (emissions Temp fac.+met)2005 BC2 2005 (APAT only) ? 2005 BC3 (APAT) 2005 Lombardy background 2012 CLE 2012 AQP 2012 CES 2012 MFR 2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007)? 2012 CLE (Meteorology 2) 2012 CLE (Bound. Cond. CHIMERE) 2012 CLE (Po backg) 2015 CLE 2015 CLE (AQP?)2015 AQP 2020 CLE 2020 CLE (AQP?) 2020 AQP 2020 CES 2020 MFR 25797778777 CHIMERE – EMEP – CAMx – RCG -- AURORA

52 Institute for Environment and Sustainability52 More meteo (data assimilation) Biogenic emissions New output (diffusion coeff, biog emissions, vert profiles) VOC: C12-C20

53 Institute for Environment and Sustainability53 01/01/20102010 6 km – 3km CHIM 2012 CLE 2012 BC-CHIM (6) 2012 AQP (3) 2005 Biogenic 31 EMEP 2005 BC2 (new) (6) 2012 BC-CHIM (6) 2005 Biogenic 3 CAMx 2005 BC2 (new) (6) 2012 AQP (3) 2005 APAT EMIS (6) (TBC) 2005 Biogenic 31 RCG 2005 BC2 (new 6) 2012 METEO2 (6) 2012 AQP (3) 2005 Biogenic 31 AURORA 2005 BC2 (new) (6) 2012 AQP (3) 2005 Biogenic 21

54 Institute for Environment and Sustainability54 AOB

55 Institute for Environment and Sustainability55 Improvements to tools (Linux, version nb…) Emission BC tests (CHIMERE?) Reporting –Model reports –Publications Model Overview (CHIM, AURORA, TCAM) Date & location for next meeting

56 Institute for Environment and Sustainability56 Emission tests

57 Institute for Environment and Sustainability57 Extras

58 Institute for Environment and Sustainability58 BC1

59 Institute for Environment and Sustainability59 BC2

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