1. Emma Leaman - Head of Education and Skills Infrastructure Birmingham City Council Planning Ahead with Uncertainty: A Staged Approach to Delivering and Commissioning Additional Places Birmingham Basic Need Workshop – March 2015

2. From Forecast to Sufficiency RequirementsFrom Expressions of Interest to Preferred OptionsFrom Annual Requirements to Staged Model

3. Forecasting accuracyUnpredictable Supply – Free Schools Balancing supply and demand to ensure resources are maximised for children’s education Minimising any negative impact on school improvement across the school system Creating the flexibility we need to respond to changing local demand

4. Forecasting Successes: Using GIS data to underpin forecasts, efficiencies in producing maps to support communications Good capture of impact of net migration has improved forecasting accuracy Forecasting Challenges: Timeliness of data (census and public health) Challenge of getting consistent quality data from schools (vacancies) Use of forecasts by DFE to inform Free Schools (planning areas)

5. Housing Yield – evidence base for revising yield? City documents - fitting in with the wider strategies: EDP / SEDP / BIG CITY PLAN

6. Planning Areas - Original 10 districts (political constituency boundary)

7. Planning Areas – Revised 40 wards (4 to each political constituency boundary)

8. Translating forecasts into Sufficiency Requirements Adjacency Tool Factors / considerations: local knowledge, pupil movement and popularity, net capacity versus forecasts, include/exclude proposed free schools info Mapping – use of numbers and RAG ratings Permanent or bulge expansions: decision based on sustained growth, time to achieve build works and secure School Organisation approvals

9. Sufficiency Maps 2015 Reception Entry

12. Types of Expansion: FE means Form of Entry, or class; so 1FE = 30 places, 2FE = 60 places etc. Permanent Expansion creates permanent capacity to take additional pupils year on year. It usually means expanding your school by 1FE (30 places) until every year group has increased by 1FE. A permanent expansion will start either in Reception, Year 3 or Year 7. Temporary or Bulge Expansion A 1FE Bulge expansion starting in Year 2 would create 30 places in Year 2, moving into Year 3, 4, 5, 6 as the children move through the school. Flexible Expansion creates additional places across a number of year groups where needed. Schools implementing this model are developing a range of ways in which classes and intervention programmes are organised so that the class sizes are preserved while the school is able to offer places flexibly to meet demand, in particular for sibling places. The advantages of flexible expansion are that schools can offer places to siblings who are in different year groups. Types of Expansion: FE means Form of Entry, or class; so 1FE = 30 places, 2FE = 60 places etc. Permanent Expansion creates permanent capacity to take additional pupils year on year. It usually means expanding your school by 1FE (30 places) until every year group has increased by 1FE. A permanent expansion will start either in Reception, Year 3 or Year 7. Temporary or Bulge Expansion A 1FE Bulge expansion starting in Year 2 would create 30 places in Year 2, moving into Year 3, 4, 5, 6 as the children move through the school. Flexible Expansion creates additional places across a number of year groups where needed. Schools implementing this model are developing a range of ways in which classes and intervention programmes are organised so that the class sizes are preserved while the school is able to offer places flexibly to meet demand, in particular for sibling places. The advantages of flexible expansion are that schools can offer places to siblings who are in different year groups.

13. EOI process Early Options Appraisal Evaluation Workshops – Multi-disciplinary review

14. Expression of Interest forms can be found at: www.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esr www.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esr We are keen to hear from any provider wishing to expand in Birmingham: all EOIs will be considered for current and future requirements If a provider is interested in expanding but does not meet the current requirements, we are still keen to hear from them and will keep their interest registered for future years

15. Our Basic Need Criteria Location in relation to Basic Need i.e. how well the additional places are located to meet growth and, in the case of special school provision, whether the school is able to meet the needs of the additional young people requiring a special school place Standards in the school: it is expected that schools that expand will be Outstanding or Good The capacity of the school to provide suitable accommodation on the site, within existing space and within planning / buildability constraints Popularity of the schoolPotential of any expansion to create overprovision or reduce diversity of provision in an area

16. Location: Planning Areas – schools in scope within ward: prioritise wards by RAG colour and worked example. Two-prong approach: EOIs and approach schools in scope (e.g. previous build programme). Standards: Filter out schools based on Ofsted grade. Seek comments from School Improvement officers. Popularity: number of first preference and placements - will the new places fill? Related to standards so moving feast. Relationships with local community. New build not necessarily a link to popularity. Confidence of LA in school to grow. Buildabiity: assessed through Property Review (element of Asset Survey - copy). Egress, ingress to site; covenants; light touch ground condition; site visit; room list and comparison to BB. Upfront information supports meeting timescales and informed decision. Potential of overprovision: waiting list and risk assessment (example) for in-year expansions. Consideration of neighbouring schools, status and popularity.

17. Multi-Disciplinary Evaluation Stakeholder Engagement: School Representative from Primary Headteacher, Secondary Headteacher and Special Headteacher Forums School Improvement Asset Officers Place Planning and School Organisation Admissions Special Educational Needs Assessment and Review team

18. Scoring Methodology Scoring Criteria 1 -5 Location Ofsted Rating Internal Capacity External Capacity BuildabilityPopularity Impact on neighbouring provision Overall Score Comments and Recommendations xx x x x x x x x

19. Project planning Financial modelling Schools Capital Programme

20. Basic Need Capital Programme 1.Planned Sufficiency 2015+ 2.Reactive Sufficiency 2014/15 3.Backfilling – where monies did not support full expansion 2011+ Currently Delivering: Phase 1 of our Early Years Additional Places Phase 5 of our Additional Primary Places Programme Phase 2 of our Special School Additional Places Programme Phase 1 of our Additional Secondary Places Programme

21. High-Level Financial Modelling

22. Staged Financial Approvals

23. Free Schools Increasing construction costs Legacy maintenance issues Push out from mainstream into special

24. Further Information Copies of the Birmingham Education Sufficiency Requirements and Expressions of Interest Forms can be found on the Birmingham City Council website via this link: www.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esrwww.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esr Copies of the Education Development Plan can be found on the Birmingham City Council website via this link (includes Basic Need Strategy): www.birmingham.gov.uk/edpwww.birmingham.gov.uk/edp Copies of the Schools Capital Programme Cabinet Report via this link: http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/democracy/Pages/AgendaDetail.aspx? AgendaID%3d77036 http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/democracy/Pages/AgendaDetail.aspx? AgendaID%3d77036 If you have difficulties in accessing any of the these documents please e- mail edsi.enquiries@birmingham.gov.uk or phone 0121 303 8847 and we will forward the information to you via e-mail.edsi.enquiries@birmingham.gov.uk

25. Contact Details Education Skills and Infrastructure People Directorate Birmingham City Council Click Email: edsi.enquiries@birmingham.gov.ukedsi.enquiries@birmingham.gov.uk Click Web: www.birmingham.gov.uk/edp and www.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esrwww.birmingham.gov.uk/edpwww.birmingham.gov.uk/schools/esr Telephone Number: 0121 303 8847 Address: Visit - 1 Lancaster Circus Birmingham B4 7DJ Post - Education and Skills Infrastructure PO Box 15843 1 Lancaster Circus Birmingham B2 2RT

26. Wrap-up and review