1. 1C. Identify and Rate Critical Threats © Foundations of Success

2. Copyright and Use Terms Under this license, you are free to share this presentation and adapt it for your use under the following conditions: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). You may not use this work for commercial purposes. If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you must remove the FOS logo, and you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution- Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, CA 94105, USA. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ © Foundations of Success, 2012 FOS strongly recommends that this presentation is given by experts familiar with the adaptive management process presented by the Conservation Measures Partnership’s Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation. Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation

3. CMP Strategic Planning Process 1. 1.Team, Scope, Vision 2. 2.Conservation Targets 3. 3.Threat Rating 4. 4.Conceptual Model CMP’s Open Standards Project Cycle 5. 5.Goals 6. 6.Strategies 7. 7.Results Chains 8. 8.Objectives 9. 9.Indicators & Monitoring plan

4. Conceptualize Step 1

5. What is a Direct Threat? Direct Threats: Human-induced actions or events that directly degrade one or more conservation targets Direct threats are: – – usually human activities, but they can be – – natural phenomena altered by human activities or whose impact is increased by human activities (e.g., global warming; tsunami that threatens the last remaining population of an Asian rhino)

6. Examples of Direct Threats Photo: Adrian Jones, IAN Image Library

7. Examples of Direct Threats Available at www.conservationmeasures.org

8. What Is the Difference Between a Direct Threat and a Stress? Direct threat: an action taken by a human that degrades a conservation or resource management target. A direct threat has at least one actor associated with it. Example: residential development Stress: biophysical impact of that action on the target. A single stress can be caused by multiple direct threats. Example: habitat fragmentation

9. What Is the Difference Between a Direct Threat and a Stress? Direct ThreatExample Stress(es)Example Target Affected DamsAltered stream flows Reduced reproductive success of fish Rivers and streams Migratory fish Unsustainable Logging Erosion (Rivers and streams) Sedimentation Habitat destruction Habitat fragmentation Rivers and streams Rivers and streams, Estuaries Forests Illegal HuntingAltered population structureMonkeys, Rhinos Unsustainable Agriculture Sedimentation Habitat destruction Habitat fragmentation Rivers and streams, Estuaries Forests, Grasslands, Wetlands Climate change Coral bleaching Rising sea levels Reduced rainfall Coral reefs Shoreline habitat Forests, Grasslands, Deserts

10. Why Prioritize Threats?? Limited resources Complex situations Applying a systematic methodology helps you decide where to begin to work

11. How Do You Prioritize Direct Threats? 1.Identify your direct threats 2.If necessary, add stresses 3.Understand the criteria for threat rating (Scope or Area, Severity, Irreversibility) 4.Apply the threat rating for each threat- target combination (using Miradi) 5.Understand and discuss summary ratings

12. Our Example: Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands Adapted from WWF Australia’s Wetlands Watch Project

13. 1. Identify Direct Threats

21. 2. If Necessary, Add Stresses For clarity, it may be necessary in some cases to include stresses that describe the biophysical impact of the threat on the target

22. 3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating Scope or Area: Spatial proportion of the target affected within ten years with the continuation of current circumstances and trends. – For ecosystems: proportion of the target's occurrence. – For species: proportion of the target’s population

23. Your Turn: Which of these threats has a larger scope? Conservation Target: Wetland Filling 10% of the wetland to convert it to agricultural land Grazing cattle in more than half of the wetland

24. 3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating Severity: Within the scope, the level of damage with the continuation of current circumstances and trends. – For ecosystems: degree of destruction or degradation of the target within the scope. – For species: degree of reduction of the target population within the scope.

25. Your Turn: Which of these threats has higher severity? Conservation Target: Wetland Filling 10% of the wetland to convert it to agricultural land Grazing cattle in more than half of the wetland

26. 3. Understand Criteria for Threat Rating Irreversibility: Degree to which the effects of a threat can be reversed and the target affected by the threat restored, if the threat no longer existed.

27. Your Turn: Which of these threats has the highest irreversibility? For a forest ecosystem (conservation target): A logging road Selective logging done by helicopter Residential development

28. How Were These Criteria Selected? THREAT RATING SYSTEMTHREAT RATING CRITERIA CMP e-AM / TNC Rapid CAP ScopeSeverityIrreversibility TNC 5-S Scope (Spatial) SeverityContributionIrreversibility BSP TRA AreaIntensityUrgency Birdlife ScopeSeverityTiming WWF RAPPAM ExtentImpactPermanenceProbabilityTrend TNC’s SE Division Extent – % Targets Severity WWF Root Causes ScopeImpactPermanence WCS Living Landscapes Proportion of Area Severity Recovery Time ProbabilityUrgency

29. Example: Overgrazing in Fringing Shrublands

30. 4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each Threat-Target Combination 4 = Very High: The threat is likely to be pervasive in its scope, affecting the target across all or most (71-100%) of its occurrence/population. 3 = High: The threat is likely to be widespread in its scope, affecting the target across much (31- 70%) of its occurrence/population. 2 = Medium: The threat is likely to be restricted in its scope, affecting the target across some (11- 30%) of its occurrence/population. 1 = Low: The threat is likely to be very narrow in its scope, affecting the target across a small proportion (1-10%) of its occurrence/population. Scope – proportion of the target expected to be affected by the threat within 10 years

31. 4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each Threat-Target Combination 4 = Very High: Within the scope, the threat is likely to destroy or eliminate the target, or reduce its population by 71-100% within ten years or three generations. 3 = High: Within the scope, the threat is likely to seriously degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 31- 70% within ten years or three generations. 2 = Medium: Within the scope, the threat is likely to moderately degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 11-30% within ten years or three generations. 1 = Low: Within the scope, the threat is likely to only slightly degrade/reduce the target or reduce its population by 1-10% within ten years or three generations. Severity – level of damage to the target expected if current trends continue

32. 4. Apply the Threat Rating for Each Threat-Target Combination 4 = Very High: Effects of the threat cannot be reversed and it is very unlikely the target can be restored, and/or would take >100 years to achieve. 3 = High: Effects of the threat can technically be reversed and the target restored, but it is not practically affordable and/or it would take 21-100 years to achieve. 2 = Medium: The effects of the threat can be reversed and the target restored with a reasonable commitment of resources and/or within 6-20 years. 1 = Low: The effects of the threat are easily reversible and the target can be easily restored at a relatively low cost and/or within 0-5 years. Irreversibility – degree to which target can be restored if threat removed

33. Miradi Uses Rules for Rolling Up Criteria Scope Very HighHighMediumLow Severity Very High HighMediumLow High MediumLow Medium Low Irreversibility Very HighHighMediumLow Magnitude Very High High Very HighHigh Medium HighMedium Low MediumLow Scope + Severity = Threat Magnitude Threat Magnitude + Irreversibility = Threat Rating

34. 5. Understand and Discuss the Summary Ratings

35. Miradi Roll-up Rules: 3-5-7 Rule 3 Highs 3 Highs = 1 Very High 1 High 5 Medium = 1 High 7 Low = 1 Medium 2 Prime Rule 5. Understand and Discuss the Summary Ratings

36. Miradi Indicates the Summary Threat Ratings in the Model

37. Threats Coral Reefs Seagrasses Beaches & Dunes Mangroves Estuaries & Coastal Lagoons SPAG's Whale Shark Summary Threat Rating Global Climate Change Very HighMediumLowHighMedium--High Inappropriate aquatic tourism practices Very HighLow--MediumLowHigh Wastewater contamination High -LowHighMediumLowHigh Tourism development MediumHigh --- Sedimentation High -LowHigh-- Urban coastal development --High -- Overfishing and inappropriate fishing practices HighMedium-- High- Agrochemicals High Low Medium--High Navigation (anchor damage, oil spills, wounds from boats) HighLowMediumLowMedium- Transportation infrastructure HighMedium Low--Medium Solid waste --High---Medium Invasive species High-Low----Medium Cattle grazing ---High---Medium Shrimp aquaculture -Medium -- Natural disasters -Medium ---- Mining --Low-Medium--Low Summary Target Rating Very HighHigh Medium Very High Threat Rating for TNC’s Mesoamerican Reef Project

38. Instructions Identify and Rate Your Critical Threats Identify the direct threats affecting each of your conservation targets and link them to the targets in the Diagram view of Miradi. Use the Threat Rating view of Miradi to do your rating. – Where you lack information, make your best guess at the rating, but be sure to note any questions or concerns you have. – Review Miradi’s summary ratings for each threat, for each target and for the overall site. Prepare to present your results (briefly).