1. Future Earth research for global sustainability photos: www.dawide.com WMO

2. 2 Why Future Earth? A growing sense of urgency A critical juncture for humanity: pace and scale of change exceed safe planetary boundaries A critical juncture for humanity: pace and scale of change exceed safe planetary boundaries

3. Some of the challenges we face Feeding 9 billion people within sustainable planetary boundaries Valuing and protecting nature’s services and biodiversity Adapting to a warmer and more urban world Transitioning to low carbon societies Providing income and innovation opportunities through transformations to global sustainability Reducing disaster risks Aligning governance with stewardship 3

4. Future Earth: A global “Apollo” type endeavour Mobilize international global change scientific community around an unprecedented decade of focused and intensive research Human Impacts on System Human Responses Earth System Function Impacts of Global Change on People Research for Global Sustainability 4

5. 5 2009-2011: ICSU-ISSC Visioning Towards a holistic approach to Earth system science Five Grand Challenges: a new way of doing research An overarching framework Five Grand Challenges: a new way of doing research An overarching framework

6. Future Earth: goal To provide the knowledge required for societies in the world: to face risks posed by global environmental change and to seize opportunities in a transition to global sustainability

7. Future Earth attributes A global platform for international research collaboration augments earth system science with impacts of environmental change on people, adaptation and transformation delivers interdisciplinary research on global environmental change for sustainable development strengthens partnership between researchers/funders/users (co-design) 7

8. Slide from G. Klepper’s presentation at Planet Under Pressure Co-design and co-production of knowledge requires the involvement of researchers and stakeholders during the entire research process.

9. Groups of relevant stakeholders for Future Earth 9

10. Future Earth: can we answer together... How and why the global environment is changing, What are likely future changes and what the implications are for human wellbeing and other species, What choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities and enhance resilience, and how this knowledge can support decisions and sustainable development?

11. Criteria for Future Earth research From fundamental to actionable Earth system research for global sustainability Answers to complex questions that require international collaboration Co-design and co-production of knowledge Integration of natural, economic, engineering, arts, humanities and social sciences Regional to global scale

12. 12 Cross - scale interactions from local to regional and global scales Global sustainability within Earth system boundaries Conceptual framework for Future Earth

13. Organizing Future Earth research A few broad research themes: thematic areas in which interdisciplinary research will be carried out. Each theme: addresses a number of key integrative questions is populated by existing/new projects is overseen by a research committee can access a number of cross-cutting capabilities 13

14. 14 Future Earth Themes 1.Dynamic Planet 2.Global Development 3.Transformation toward Sustainability

15. Dynamic Planet 15 Observing, explaining, understanding, projecting Earth, environmental and societal system trends, drivers and processes and their interactions; anticipating global thresholds and risks. Example research questions: What are the states and trends of Global Change? key environmental components such as biodiversity, climate, soils, cryosphere, biogeochemistry, air quality, hydrology, and oceans, and in the human drivers of change and the social foundations of sustainable development such as population, consumption and technology, wellbeing, equality, health, education, human security? How and why do these vary across time, space, and social context? How can be we better understand Earth system dynamics? What approaches, theories, and models allow us to explain the functioning of Earth and socio-ecological systems, understand the interactions between them, make projections for the future, and anticipate critical thresholds?

16. What are the risks of crossing regional to global thresholds and planetary boundaries and inducing tipping points and social- environmental crises due to global environmental change? What kind of integrated global and regional observing systems and data infrastructures are needed to document and model the coupled Earth system and the anthropogenic drivers of change? Can we develop reliable monitoring systems, models and information systems and services that anticipate and provide early warnings of large scale and rapid change? What can be understood and anticipated about the condition and future for critical zones and biomes such as coasts, tropical forests, or polar regions? 16 Dynamic Planet

17. Providing the knowledge for sustainable, secure and fair stewardship of food, water, biodiversity, health, energy, materials and other ecosystem functions and services. Example research questions: What are the patterns, trade-offs and options for equitable and sustainable use of resources and land, and how can we ensure sustainable access to food, water, clean air, energy and materials for current and future populations? What are the implications of climate change for food, water, health, human settlements, and ecosystems? How can climate services and disaster risk reduction reduce these impacts and facilitate adaptation? What are the links between biodiversity, ecosystems, human wellbeing and sustainable development? 17 Global development

18. How socially and environmentally effective, efficient and equitable are alternative approaches for conceiving, measuring and implementing development projects? What options are available to provide energy for all with reduced environmental impacts, and what are the social implications of these energy choices? How can the business and industrial sector contribute to development, prosperity and environmental stewardship through the management of their production and supply chains? How does global environmental change affect distinct groups in society such as Indigenous people, women, children, subsistence farmers, business, the poor or the elderly? How does their environmental knowledge contribute to solutions for sustainable development? 18 Global development

19. Understanding transformation processes and options, assessing how these relate to human values, emerging technologies and economic development pathways, and evaluating strategies for governing and managing the global environment across sectors and scales. Example research questions: What are approaches to govern and manage for human prosperity and global sustainability? How can governance and decision-making be aligned across different levels, issues, and places to manage global environmental change and promote sustainable development? What is known about the successes and failures of different actors in managing global environmental change, such as government, business, or international organizations, at different scales, and using different strategies, such as regulation, certification, standards, or taxes in managing global environmental change? 19 Transformation towards sustainability

20. Can emerging technologies provide viable solutions to global environmental change and promote sustainable development? How can technology and infrastructure choices be combined with changes in institutions and behaviors to achieve low carbon transitions, food security and safe water? How do values, beliefs and worldviews influence individual and collective behavior to more sustainable lifestyles, patterns of trade, production and consumption? What triggers and facilitates deliberate transformations at the individual, organizational, and systems levels; what socio-political and ecological risks does it entail? What do we know about past transformations of the Earth system, as well as in ideas, technology and economy and how can the knowledge and lessons learned guide future choices? 20 Transformation towards sustainability

21. What are the longer-term pathways towards sustainable urban futures and landscapes, successful and sustainable ‘blue societies, and a green economy? How can the earth and social system adapt to environmental changes that could include warming of more than 4C over the next century? What are the implication of global changes for world economics? Can our present economic systems, ideas and development practices provide the necessary framework to achieve global sustainability and if not, what can be done to revise, redesign and/or innovate economic systems, measures, goals and development policies for global sustainability? 21 Transformation towards sustainability

22. 22 What are the implications of efforts to govern and manage the earth system for sustainability for scientific observations, monitoring, indicators and analysis? What science is needed to evaluate and assess policies and facilitate and legitimate transformation? How can the massive volume of new geophysical and social data, including local knowledge and social media be managed and analysed so as to provide new insights into the causes, nature and consequences of global environmental change and to facilitate the identification and diffusion of solutions?

23. Proposed cross-cutting capabilities 23 C1Observing Systems C2Data Systems C3Earth System Modeling C4Theory Development C5Synthesis and Assessments C6Capacity Development and Education C7Communication and the Science-Policy Interface

24. Dynamic Planet: What are the states, variability and trends in biodiversity, climate, soils, cryosphere, biogeochemistry, hydrology, and oceans? What is happening to the human and geophysical driving forces of change such as consumption, population, technology, greenhouse gases, and evolution and how do they interact? What are the scenarios for the future including natural variability, the risks of tipping points and catastrophic change? Global Development: What are the patterns, trade offs and sustainable options for land use? How can we ensure secure and sustainable food, water, air, energy and materials for 9 billion people? How is global environmental change risking human health, biodiversity and ecosystem services? What energy options are available to provide energy for all with reduced environmental impacts? Transformations toward Sustainability: How can we align governance to manage global environmental change and sustainable development? What are the options for innovative green technology and economics to promote, for example, lower carbon futures and more rewarding work? How do information, values and policies influence individual and corporate behavior to more sustainable patterns of production, trade and consumption? What triggers system transformations and what leverage points can be used to promote deliberate and equitable change towards sustainability? Future Earth Research Themes What are your research questions? What are your concerns? What is your vision?

25. Future Earth: the role of projects  The 3 themes (and associated questions) will be addressed by a number of projects -Existing core projects -New projects  Any single project can address several themes

26. 26 In the draft research framework, the Transition Team has provided some examples of how existing projects might contribute to the proposed research themes and sample questions; but these are only tentative and await consultations and inputs from projects that could expand and revise these examples to better reflect how they would wish to contribute to Future Earth. Research themes: what contributions from existing core projects?

27. Additional slides 27

28. Pathways to Sustainability Transformations and Solutions Policy, Market, Behavioural, Technological, and Informational responses and human security Global Environmental Changes

29. Proposed Research Themes 1 Dynamic Planet: Observing, explaining, understanding, projecting earth, environmental and societal system trends, drivers and processes and their interactions; anticipating global thresholds and risks. 2 Global development: Providing the knowledge for sustainable, secure and fair stewardship of food, water, biodiversity, health, energy, materials and other ecosystem functions and services. 3 Transformation towards Sustainability: Understanding transformation processes and options, assessing how these relate to human values, emerging technologies and economic development pathways, and evaluating strategies for governing and managing the global environment across sectors and scales. 29