1. Criteria for Future Earth Research From fundamental to actionable Earth system research for global sustainability Answer complex questions that require international collaboration Co-design and co-production of knowledge Integrates natural, economic, engineering, arts, humanities and social sciences Regional to global scale

2. Future Earth Design (1)  Scientific excellence: An overarching element to these key principles is Future Earth’s commitment to support science of the highest quality. International scope: Future Earth is does not encompass all environment and development research but focuses on areas where international research co-ordination is needed for successful analysis and solutions. Integration: Future Earth should draw on expertise in natural and social science, as well as engineering, the humanities and professions such as planning and law. This must be complemented by strong disciplinary excellence that contributes insights to integrated projects, with a focus on the intersection of global environmental change and sustainable development. Co-design and co-production: the research agenda and programmes should be co-designed and co-produced by researchers in collaboration working with various stakeholders– in governments, industry and business, and civil society.

3. Future Earth Design (2) ‘Bottom-up’ inspiration: the Future Earth approach will emphasize the importance of ‘bottom-up’ ideas from the research community in designing the projects that respond to challenges. Solution-oriented: by providing foresight of changes and risks, testing the effectiveness of responses and providing a knowledge base for new innovations. Inclusive: Future Earth intends to include existing international Global Environmental Change (GEC) core projects and related national activities, as well as other existing international and national GEC research activities in a framework that strengthens existing projects and provides them with new opportunities. Strong attention will be given to regional engagement, geographic and gender balance, capacity building and networking.

4. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (1) constitute the highest organisational units for research. will function as broad platforms for strategic and integrated Earth system research. will address large complex social-environmental challenges in the context of human wellbeing and global environmental change will require several major research projects. will call for collaboration across a range of research areas and disciplines and link to critical areas of disciplinary expertise.

5. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (2) All the IRTs thus involve collaborative, transdisciplinary integrative research across scientific disciplines. As well as disciplinary research activities when required. Together, the combined IRTs should provide a concise and comprehensive synopsis of development and sustainability. With the IRT transformative pathways possibly providing a more integrative role.

6. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (3) IRT science will be supported by a set of cross-cutting capabilities … and will often be provided through partnerships with initiatives outside Future Earth. ActivityExamples C1Observing SystemsGEOSS C2Data SystemsWorld Data Center C3Earth System Modeling C4Theory Development C5Synthesis and AssesmentsIPCC, IPBES, AoA, … C6Capacity Development and EducationSTART, … C7Communication and the Science-Policy Interface

7. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (4) The proposed themes below were developed by the transition team guided by the ICSU visioning and Belmont process, and have already been revised in response to initial consultations. There are many options for organizing research priorities and themes – for example around basic human development needs (water, food, energy) or by earth system components (climate, land, oceans).

8. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (5) Proposed IRTs are designed to 1) build on the agenda set out by the ICSU/ISSC Visioning process and Belmont Forum 2) provide opportunities for existing GEC projects to seamlessly associate with Future Earth 3) respond to new and urgent calls for research to inform development and to identify the social, technical and other transformations towards sustainability and 4) identify high priority issues for focused research.

9. 1.The State of the Planet: Observing, explaining, projecting Earth and societal system trends, drivers, and processes and their interactions 2.Responses to global environmental change: Understanding and evaluating current strategies for governing and managing the global environment across scales and sectors 3.Reducing Risks: Anticipating global thresholds, improving resilience and reducing disaster risks 4.Resources for development and wellbeing: Providing the knowledge for sustainable, secure and fair stewardship of food, water, health, energy, materials and other ecosystem services 5.Pivotal Places: Understanding global change in cities, regions, and critical biomes 6.Living with the Sea: Oceans, coasts and blue societies 7.Transformative Pathways: Towards a Sustainable Future Earth 8.Other themes to be proposed and co-designed by the community INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (6)

10. The State of the Planet: Observing, explaining, projecting earth and societal system trends, drivers, and processes and their interactions What kind of integrated global and regional observing systems and data infrastructures are needed to document and model the coupled earth system and the anthropogenic drivers of change? What is the state—past, present and likely future—of the climate, biodiversity, oceans, forests, air quality, soil and other critical earth and ecological systems, and what indicators and information services best communicate the state of the planet to users and decision makers? What changes in population dynamics, consumption, migration, economic development and global trade would alter the state and future of the earth system towards more sustainable paths? 1. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

11. Responses to global environmental change: Understanding and evaluating current strategies for governing and managing the global environment across scales and sectors What is known about the successes and failures of different actors in managing global environmental change, such as government, business, or international organizations, at different scales, and using different strategies, such as regulation, certification, standards, or taxes in managing global environmental change? What are the trade-offs and feedbacks to Earth, ecological and social systems from different individual, community and institutional responses to global environmental change? How, for example, do policies that promote bio fuels and renewables, intensive use of land, climate adaptation, or carbon forestry affect other aspects of the environment and social equity? How can goals (such as the MDGs or proposed SDGs) be designed so as to motivate effective governance and response to global environmental changes? 2. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

12. Reducing Risk: Anticipating global thresholds, improving resilience and reducing disaster risks What are the risks of crossing regional to global thresholds and inducing social-environmental crises due to global environmental change? Can we develop reliable monitoring systems, models and information systems and services that anticipate and provide early warnings of large scale and rapid change and the potential for exceeding important thresholds? How can these tools most effectively be presented to decision and policy makers to help them deliver appropriate and forward looking responses in the context of uncertainty? What are the best methods for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of people, economies and ecosystems to extremes and rapid environmental change, especially in climate, and how can these be used to target disaster risk reduction and adaptive management to build resilience of human and ecological systems? 3. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

13. Resources for development and wellbeing: Providing the knowledge for sustainable, secure and fair stewardship of food, water, health, energy, materials and other ecosystem services How are global environmental changes affecting the security of food, water, and energy for different places and populations and what are the options for adapting equitably to these changes? How does biodiversity contribute to human health and welfare and how do changes in natural ecosystems affect development? How can mining, manufacturing and other industrial activities be made more environmentally sustainable while providing jobs and economic prosperity? 4. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

14. Pivotal Places: Understanding global change in cities, regions, and critical biomes How do cities contribute to and experience global environmental change, and how might they become centers of innovation for sustainable and fair development? What is the role of polar regions in global environmental change and how re changes in climate and other stresses interacting to cause dangerous shifts in polar, Arctic, and Antarctic systems? What sorts of governance are most effective in these regions? What role do forests play in the Earth system, human livelihoods and global biodiversity and what policies are most effective in protecting and managing forests in the face of multiple natural and economic stresses? How can international and comparative research into mountain and/or delta regions provide insights into the impacts of global environmental change and are there successful responses that can be shared across these biomes? 5. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

15. Living with the Sea What are the critical and emerging threats and vulnerabilities for oceanic systems and for the security of coastal regions, cities, deltas and ecosystems? How does climate change and ocean acidification affect ocean and coastal systems? What forms of governance, including international, community and private management of ocean and coastal zones best protect marine systems and coastal livelihoods? How can sustainable fishing, blue technologies, waste regulation and adaptive management strategies contribute to food security and ensure resilient coastal zones and oceans? 6. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

16. Transformative Pathways: Towards a Sustainable Future Earth What triggers major social transformations and how can such leverage points be used to promote deliberate and equitable change towards sustainability? How do beliefs, values and worldviews influence responses to global environmental change, and how are these transforming in response to global environmental risks? What do we know about past transformations of the Earth System, as well as in ideas, technology and economy and how can the knowledge and lessons learned guide future choices? What are the environmental and social impacts of planned and emerging infrastructures, technologies and interventions, including geoengineering and synthetic biology, and how can they be designed, engineered and governed to ensure sustainability? 7. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

17. Transformative Pathways: Towards a Sustainable Future Earth Can our present economic systems, ideas and development practices provide the necessary framework to achieve global sustainability and if not, what can be done to revise, redesign and/or innovate economic systems, measures, and development policies for global sustainability? How can the massive volume of new geophysical and social data, including local knowledge and social media be managed and analysed so as to provide new insights into the causes, nature and consequences of global environmental change and to facilitate the identification and diffusion of solutions? 7. INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEME

18. Input requested from TT and GRC projects and affiliates on the first draft of the framework and initial list of our TT suggested IRTs Co-Design has started … comments are coming in … critical voices … supporting votes … DISCUSSION of the TT introduced by Diana Next Steps

20. Living with the sea: oceans, coasts and blue societies - Example research questions What might adaptive management strategies contribute to resilient coastal zones? How much and what kind of food will the oceans provide to future societies? What is the capacity of the ocean to take up CO 2 ? How to govern sustainable fisheries? How do land-use and open ocean changes influence coastal habitats and marine biodiversity? What are the regional impacts of sea level rise and their interaction with coastal use and protection?

21. System Understanding

22. Predictions and Scenarios

23. Sustainable Management and Governance

24. R2: R4:R3: R1: How can ocean sustainability be conceptualized to guide responsible decision-making? How can environmental law be implemented in the open sea and in exclusive economic zones? How can ocean resources be exploited balancing ocean use and ocean protection? How can ocean substances support technological innovations in materials and life sciences? Integrated Research Questions

25. R8: How might rapid evolutionary change of species affect marine ecosystems? R6: R7: R5: What is the role of marine carbon sequestration techniques to mitigate climate change? How can we cope with ocean hazards and prepare for ocean change? How do micro-scale processes at ocean interfaces affect fluxes of climate relevant substances? Integrated Research Questions

26. R10: R11: R9: How does the ocean influence climate at transitions points to climate warming? How can autonomous ocean observing systems be optimized? How can ocean predictions be improved also on regional scales ? Integrated Research Questions

28. Thrivability: Development pathways towards sustainable, happy and healthy lifestyles Convergence of crises: environmental, economic and political; and implications for social and ecological resilience. A resourceful future: sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services: food, water, land use, mining. Oceans, coastal vulnerability and Blue Societies. Climate change, energy supply and low carbon societies. Population dynamics: trade, migration and urbanization. Global transformations: past, present and future … Currently being discussed by the Transition Team INTEGRATED RESEARCH THEMES (London 2012)

29. Implementation Strategy for FUTURE EARTH research Phase I TT refines overall framework of research strategy TT confirms the initial list of “Integrated Research Themes” (London 2012). For each “Integrated Research Theme” TT charges an enlarged WG1 to develop a 2 page prospectus outlining the challenge (1 paragraph), exemplifying the research by 3-6 integrated research questions, list existing research projects that could contribute to the “Integrated Research Theme”.

30. Implementation Strategy Phase II Within 3 month an on-line commenting platform for structures comments on the proposed Future Earth research strategy will go live an provide input to the TT and regional scoping workshops. 3-5 regional scoping workshop on the overall Future Earth Research Strategy with break out sessions onto the Integrated Research Themes will be held within the next 6 month with participation of experts on GC research, affected stake holders, educators and potential funders to make suggestions on key elements for the co-design the research portfolio. (INPUT TO THE CO-DESIGN THE RESEARCH) A initial Research Committee Group will be established for each Integrated Research Themes to oversee the development of the research agenda in 2013 supported by appropriate staff.

31. Implementation Strategy Phase III For each “Integrated Research Theme” a scoping workshop will be held in 2013 with participation of experts from GC research, affected stake holders, educators and potential funders to consolidate the input from the regional workshops and on-line comments to co-design the research portfolio. (CO-DESIGN THE RESEARCH) A fast track endorsement process of existing (GC) projects into the “Mega Theme” portfolio (using a set of criteria to be further developed by the TT) A science plan prospectus will be submitted to the Future Earth Science Committee for endorsement and support (20-50 pages). (HOW TO CO-PRODUCE KNOWLEDGE)

32. Information for the endorsement of FUTURE EARTH projects Scope of the project Design and framing of the research FUTURE EARTH alignment Funding arrangements (Details to be considered in the WG1 paper)