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AAPL Annual Meeting U.S. A&D Market Overview Strictly Private and Confidential June 8, 2011 Craig Lande craig.lande@rbccm.com 713-585-3335 www.richardsonbarr.com
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1 A&D Asset Supply By CommodityBy Sector $31.1 $15.2 $58.9 $31.1 $15.2 $58.9 ($ Billions) Oil & Gas Resource Plays continue to drive asset supply Publics JV-ing unconventional assets and selling conventional gas $24.0 Note: Includes all U.S. transactions, including Gulf of Mexico $24.0 Conventional Oil Oil Resource Play Conventional Gas Gas Resource Play Public Company Private Equity Private Company Tax Driven Raising Shale Capital Opportunistic
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2 Regional Asset Supply – Conventional (1)Includes Michigan. (2)Does not include Oxy / Shell transaction Mid Continent Rockies Appalachia (1) Gulf Coast (2) Permian Basin Legend Last Twelve Months 3-Year Average ($ Billions) Ark-La-Tex Mature Shale Gas (Barnett, Fayetteville) Conventional Oil
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3 Regional Asset Supply – Resource Plays Legend Last Twelve Months 3-Year Average Niobrara Permian Resource Eagle Ford Bakken Marcellus Haynesville ($ Billions)
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4 U.S. E&P Landscape – M&A Driver in 2011 / 2012? Majors, Internationals, and financially sound Large-Caps are the likely buyers; resource players the likely targets Resource Plays do not have the capital of Majors Ranking By Enterprise Value ($ In Billions)
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5 Commodity Futures Curves Comparison of Forward Natural Gas PricingComparison of Forward Crude Pricing Current Jan. 1 The market remains bullish on oil while sentiment remains bearish in the natural gas market Current Jan. 1
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6 E&P Sector Capital Markets / Joint Venture Financing Activity Source: Dealogic data as of May 10, 2011. Includes independents only - excludes capital raised from Majors / Integrateds. Equity and Debt Capital Markets Activity Since January 1, 2007 Capital Markets Overview 200920102011 Bank High Yield Investment Grade IPO Secondary Private Equity MLP Royalty Trust Debt Equity $25.5 $34.4 $34.9 $52.5 $20.3 IPO Follow-On + Converts High Yield Investment Grade Joint Venture Private Equity $35+ B
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7 Publics Co’s will be in Need of Capital to Fund 2011 Budgets Undeveloped Leasehold Expiring In 2011 & 2012Public E&P Sector Capital Shortfall Analysis ($MM) Source:FactSet estimates and latest company SEC filings as of June 2, 2011. Large Cap Resource Co’s includes: CHK, SWN, UPL, RRC, EQT, HK, XCO. Small Cap Resource Co’s includes: WKW, CRK, CRZO, GDP, REXX, GMXR Oil-Weighted Companies includes: CLR, CXO, DNR, WLL, PXP, BRY, REN Bakken Companies includes: CLR, BEXP, OAS, NOG, KOG Large Cap Resource Co’s Debt to ‘11E EBITDA: 1.9x Debt to Cap: 44.5% Average = 42% Small Cap Resource Co’s Debt to ‘11E EBITDA: 2.6x Debt to Cap: 52.0% Oil Weighted Companies Debt to ‘11E EBITDA: 1.4x Debt to Cap: 35.2% Bakken Companies Debt to ‘11E EBITDA: 0.7x Debt to Cap: 24.2%
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8 Top 10 Onshore Buyers – A Changing Landscape U.S. Onshore Transactions (2005 – 2008)U.S. Onshore Transactions (2010 – 2011 YTD) RankCompany Asset Acquisitions 1.XTO$16.3 Billion 2.Chesapeake$8.2 Billion 3.Oxy$5.4 Billion 4.Exco$5.2 Billion 5.Plains E&P$4.9 Billion 6.Loews$4.0 Billion 7.Devon$3.7 Billion 8.Linn$3.7 Billion 9.BP$3.7 Billion 10.StatOIl$3.4 Billion RankCompany Asset Acquisitions 1.Chevron$6.5 Billion 2.Shell$5.7 Billion 3.Oxy$5.6 Billion 4.BHP Billiton$4.3 Billion 5.ExxonMobil$3.9 Billion 6.Marathon$3.7 Billion 7.Consol$3.5 Billion 8.CNOOC$3.4 Billion 9.Reliance$3.2 Billion 10.Apache$3.1 Billion U.S. Large Caps were primary buyersMajors / Internationals emerge
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9 Sector Themes – Pivot to Oil Large & Mid Cap Oil ReservesE&P Equity Stock Performance E&P Public ValuationsPublic E&P Universe Sub-SectorTEV / 2011 Production ($ / Boepd) 2011E EBITDA Reserves ($ / Boe) Large Cap Gas Resource Plays $79,4199.0x$16.17 Oil-Weighted Companies $146,9098.1x$29.02 E&P MLPs$121,6419.5x$17.98 Bakken Companies $205,2039.6x$63.99 “Large-Cap” includes: OXY, APA, APC, DVN, EOG, ECA, CHK, WMB, NBL, SWN, EP, PXD, CLR, CXO, NFX, DNR, XEC, RRC, WLL, UPL, QEP, EQT, HK. “Mid-Cap” includes: PXP, COG, SM, XCO, EGN, SD, FST, BEXP, OAS, KWK, BRY, EXXI, ROSE, NOG, BBG, SFY, WTI, GPOR, SGY, CRK, CRZO, KOG, CWEI, PETD. “Large Cap Gas Resource Plays” includes: CHK, SWN, UPL, RRC, EQT, HK, XCO. “Oil-Weighted Companies” includes: OXY, CLR, CXO, DNR, WLL, PXP, OAS, BRY, REN “E&P MLPs” includes: LINE, BBEP, EVEP, LGCY, VNR, ENP, PSE, and QRE. “Bakken Companies” includes: CLR, BEXP, OAS, NOG, KOG. Percentage of Total Reserves # Gas Companies# Oil Companies
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10 E&P Sectors are Looking for Unique Characteristics BuyerAmountRegion% Oil% PDP Apache$3,100Permian65%32% Concho$1,650Permian58%63% Oxy$700California100%35% W&T$366Wolfberry91%22% Bill Barrett$120Uinta80%30% Public Buyers – Low PDP; Oil / Resource BuyerAmountRegion% Gas% PDP EnerVest$967Barnett71%44% Legend$900Barnett92%54% EnerVest$330Appalachia70%55% WildHorse$320Ark-La-Tex90%35% Premier$104Barnett100%45% Private Equity Buyers – Mid-PDP; Gas BuyerAmountRegion% Gas% PDP Eagle Rock$514Mid-Continent80%66% Linn$330Appalachia99%85% Linn$200Permian8%70% EV Energy$123Mid-Continent86%69% Legacy$105Permian48%84% MLP Buyers – High PDP; Commodity Agnostic Mid PDP Gas High PDP Low Decline Low PDP Oil / Resource
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11 Unconventional Resources – Coming to America Unconventional Demand By Buyer Unconventional Demand By Sector Note: Pie Charts demonstrate total transaction volume by Buyer Type and Sector from 2010 – 2011YTD.
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12 Current Conventional Oil Valuations Equate to a $140+ Oil Market WTI near month ($/Bbl) $145.29 / Bbl Deal competition created oversupply N/A $81,100 $100,000 $70,000 $86,800 $102,600 $105,500 $115,100 $111,100 $97,700 Note: Includes $50+ MM onshore oil transactions with R/P ratio of at least 10 years $31.14 / Bbl $100.40 / Bbl $143,200 $116,800 Quiet A&D Market
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13 Current Conventional Gas Valuations Reflect Commodity Price $7,800 $10,100 $12,500 $16,500 $20,400 $8,200 $10,800 $8,400 $10,700 $11,800 $7,900 $7,800 Note: Includes $50+ MM onshore natural gas transactions with R/P ratio of approximately 10+ years Henry Hub near month ($/Bbl) $13.31 / MMBtu $1.88 / MMBtu $9,700 $4.63 / MMBtu
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14 Regional Production Multiples for Conventional Oil & Gas Transactions Conventional Oil TransactionsConventional Gas Transactions Excludes Wolfberry PDP PV 9 to PV 7 PDP PV 12 to PV 10
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15 U.S. Resource Play Valuations – $ / Acre Oil resource play acreage valuations continue to climb while natural gas resource play acreage valuations seem to have plateaued More De-Risking Needed $ / Acre Rising
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16 Break-Even Economics for Key U.S. Oil Onshore Plays Source: Wall Street Research Oil / Liquids Plays – Required NYMEX WTI Strip For 10% IRR Average = $55.30
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17 Break-Even Economics for Key U.S. Gas Onshore Plays Source: Wall Street Research Natural Gas Plays – Required NYMEX Henry Hub Strip For 10% IRR Average = $3.56
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18 Asset Sale Valuation Drivers Operations Premium paid for control Production / Cash Flow Conventional - need more Resource - not as important, focus on de-risking Working Interest Higher the better Acreage More is more, contiguous will get premium R / P 10+ years optimal Lease Expirations Need good term or won’t get paid (HBP is best) Commodity Buyers bullish on oil, bearish on gas All Rights / All Depths Impacts reserve analysis and ultimately value Capital Markets When open, more money chasing deals Overall Size Bigger deals get premium over smaller deals Deal Competition Participation impacted adversely in busy market
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19 What is Next for the U.S. MA&D Market? Joint Ventures / Foreign Capital Publics Continue Pivoting Towards Oil Conventional Deal Flow To Increase Private Equity Will Increase Investing MLPs / Trusts Will Increase $40 to $50 Billion in 2011 A&D
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20 $121 million Conventional Ark-La-Tex 37,000 Acres June Data Room Barnett Shale Black Warrior Basin Confidential Eagle Ford $155 million Conventional $210 million Conv. Multi-Basin Permian Basin $330 million Conventional $145 million Conventional Appalachia $330 million Antrim Shale $175 million Williston Basin $380 million Multi-Basin Bakken Shale Confidential Conv. Permian $105 million Conv. Permian $483 million Conv. Permian $265 million Bone Spring / Wolfberry $185 million Wolfberry $900 million Conv. Multi-Basin $200 million Conv. Permian $280 million Marcellus Glade Park Gas LP and $406 million Marcellus $196 million Bakken Current Transactions Confidential Conv. Permian $123 million Wolfberry RBC Richardson Barr – Selected Recent Transactions Confidential Barnett Shale $967 million Barnett Shale $218 million Haynesville $210 million CBM Niobrara Shale Mid Continent 8 MMcfepd June Data Room Rocky Mountains 66,000 Acres Bids Due June 9 12,000 Acres July Data Rooms 50,000 Acres Aug. Data Rooms Private Co. Mississippi Lime 53,000 Acres June Data Rooms Private Co. 250,000 Acres July Data Rooms
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21 Bio – Craig R. Lande Craig R. Lande, Director Craig Lande joined RBC Richardson Barr in June 2005. Mr. Lande has over 16 years of broad experience in the U.S. acquisition and divestiture market. Mr. Lande's transaction experience includes the sale of both public and private E&P companies, fairness opinions, general advisory and asset divestitures. Over the years, he has developed an extensive database that includes the acquisition and divestiture priorities of the majority of E&P companies in the U.S. Prior to RBC Richardson Barr, Mr. Lande worked in the Houston office of Waterous & Co. from 2001-2005 and served as a Vice President. Mr. Lande was actively involved in business development for the U.S. practice. He was also the creator and editor of the Quarterly Market Review, a newsletter focusing on upstream acquisition and divestiture valuations and trends. From 1996 – 2001, Mr. Lande was a Senior Analyst with the energy investment banking firm Cornerstone Ventures, L.P. where he concentrated on corporate research and company and asset valuations. Mr. Lande's professional speaking engagements include many to the SPEE, ADAM Energy Forum, Drilling Info and various Hart Energy Conferences. Mr. Lande holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Management and Marketing from Tulane University.
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