1. 2016 LATE SPRING/SUMMER FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES

2. 30 DAY SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES End of July 2015April 20, 2016

3. U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR April 19, 2016

4. LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT INDEX April 16, 2016

5. 12 MONTH STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX January through December 2015

6. 6 MONTH DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION Late October 2015 into Late April 2016

7. SNOW DEPTHS ON APRIL 20, 2016

8. 90 DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EFFECT OF STRONG EL NINO Ending on April 19, 2016

9. U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK Valid through July 31, 2016

10. PSA03

11. CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

12. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

13. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

14. PSA04

15. CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

16. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

17. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

18. PSA06

19. CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

20. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

21. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

22. PSA13

23. BURNING INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

24. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

25. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

26. PSA17

27. BURNING INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

28. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

29. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

30. PSA21

31. CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

32. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

33. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

34. PSA24

35. BURNING INDICES 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

36. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

37. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE 2015 1998 OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

38. CLIMATE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION POINTS Past Weather and Drought: 30 day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were below normal across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and northwestern Minnesota at the end of March 2016. Above normal precipitation and soil moisture anomalies were on place over the majority of the central and eastern Great Lakes as well as Indiana into Ohio. Weather and Climate Outlook: Drier than normal conditions overall are forecast over much of the western half of the Eastern Area through the rest of the spring season. Warmer than normal conditions are forecast over the majority of the Eastern Area into the summer of 2016. Above normal precipitation trends are forecast along the East Coast March into April as systems continue to track through the southern tier of the U.S. and then up the East Coast. Fire Season Timing: Above normal fire potential is expected to persist or develop over the Mississippi Valley through the rest of the spring fire season as drier and warmer trends prevail prior to green up. The 2016 Spring Fire Season may begin 2-3 weeks earlier than normal across the northern tier of the Eastern Area due to expected warmer than normal temperature trends.

39. PREDICTIVE SERVICES 2016 LATE SPRING SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

40. APRIL 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

41. MAY 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

42. JUNE-JULY 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

43. COMMENTS/QUESTIONS? STEPHEN MARIEN EASTERN AREA FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM MANAGER OFFICE:651-293-3366 CELL:402-250-7844 E-MAIL: STEPHEN_MARIEN@NPS.GOV EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES