1. 1 Lunchtime Seminar, Brussels, 14 April 2016 POLITICAL ECONOMY OF REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN AFRICA What drives and constrains regional organisations?

2. Presentation Structure 1.The ‘what’, the ‘not’ and the ‘how’ 1.10 key observations & examples 1.The ‘what now’? 2

3. The ‘what’... -Use political-economy analysis to provide insights on: “the key drivers & constraints of regional organisations in promoting regional integration in Africa” -Actors and factors shaping agendas and implementation -Produce “relevant knowledge” for donors AND other policy-makers -Part of an iterative process: analyse, review, discuss, adapt, focus, analyse... 3

4. What this is ‘not’: 1.A scientific test of competing explanations 2.An evaluation of donor support to regional organisations 3.A political economy of donor policy choices and approaches 4.Exhaustive analysis on each and every REC and policy area - tradeoffs 5.A silver bullet for all regional policy-related problems 6.A ‘usual’ study…! 4

5. The ‘how’... 5 lenses Foundational & structural factors Institutions - formal & informal rules of the game Actors and agency - power and interests Sectoral characteristics External factors - financial and other 5 Examine the interaction of political & economic processes & incentives...

6. 6 PEA of regional approaches to... AUCOMESAEACECOWASIGADSADC 1. Peace & Security 2. Food Security 3. Gender 4. Conservation 5.Climate 6. Transport & Infrastructure 7. Energy 8. Trade 9. Industrialisation

7. 10 Key observations - drivers & constraints… 1.Foundational & structural factors... “continue to shape the environment in which African regional organisations set and implement their agendas.” ECOWAS - franco-anglo colonial and linguistic heritage - P&S alliances IGAD - common physical challenges vs long-run conflicts COMESA - 8/19 landlocked; 4/19 islands, dispersed EAC - landlocked Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi - ‘coalition of the willing’ 7

8. 10 Key observations 2. Institutions & ‘isomorphic mimicry’... “ While regional organisations adopt the institutional forms to foster regional cooperation or integration, these do not always serve the stated functions.” AU - results based management Most RECs - FTAs and CUs not functioning as should - no cost to non-implementation IGAD - extraordinary summits only SADC - TFCAs, bottom up, SADC a follower... COMESA - RISM - somwhat aligned to encourage enforcement? 8

9. 10 Key observations 9 Actors 3. Member state signalling : “ Member states may signal their support for regional organisations even when implementation is not a political priority.” All RECs - gender policies & units; COMESA - FTA, CU ECOWAS - Protocols on governance etc? 4. National interests - “Implementation of regional cooperation and integration takes place when in line with key ‘national interests’ as defined by ruling elites.” Overlapping memberships - e.g. engagement EAC vs COMESA vs IGAD EAC, SAPP, smaller groups => more easily aligned interests IGAD - peace mediation vs FTA SADC - South Africa and regional industrialisation policy, SAPP ECOWAS - P&S and rice in Burkina Faso

10. 10 Key observations Actors 5. Regional hegemons are able to influence regional agendas and their implementation. Ethiopia in EAPP, IGAD Nigeria in ECOWAS P&S - CdI 6. Individual personalities and quality of leadership within regional organisations, tend to shape - and can be decisive for - the functioning of the organisation. HoS have decision power across RECs SAPP – technical SADC TFCA - political 10

11. 10 Key observations 11 7. Private & CS Actors - The diversity of private sector and civil society interests affects how business & CSOs engage with national governments and ROs on regional processes. Peace Parks Foundation - PS to SADC prog. SADC Gender Protocol Alliance ECOWAS rice - Burkina Faso, aligned interests PIDA – (late) private sector engagement 8. Sectoral factors - The interests and incentives related to different sector or policy areas differ markedly according to the nature and characteristics of the sector P&S - problem-solving: lowering -’ve externalities (IGAD, ECOWAS) Trade, energy, gender - aspirations - at +’ve externalities harder! ECOWAS - Rice vs livestock

12. 10 Key observations 12 External factors 9. Donors: Of all external factors, the quality and volume of donor support have the greatest influence on the agendas and implementation by regional organisations most. All heavily dependent on donors - ECOWAS partial exception +’ve - e.g. AU & other peace operations; Rising quality but low coordination, fragmented, uncertainty Conditions/targeting risk from supporting to driving Agenda inflation & signalling e.g. EAC social sectors COMESA RISM - partial success, donor discontent… 10. Critical junctures such as natural disasters and major political events/crises can trigger progress but also block regional organisations and dynamics. SAPP - 1992 - drought, post-apartheid ECOWAS - 2008 food crisis EAPP/IGAD - Arab Spring, Egyptian regime change

13. The ‘WHAT NOW?’ ‘Think and work politically’ ‘Do development differently’ “Plan for sailboats, not trains” (Kleinfeld, 2015)...while planning, programming, implementing, monitoring…? 13

14. Options for partners, given incentives... Even once you decide on policy objectives, what margins of manouvre are there? Alter? Very hard for FFs. Tip the balance? Boost demand? Compensate? Change own incentives? Adapt? Tricky! Function not form? Follow interests? Build on informal? Individuals? Iterative adaptation? Within/between MS traction? Avoid?Maybe easier, by-passing for same outcome? Build on Sub- regional groupings? Political legitimacy? Await?Can you wait? Long-term thinking & preparing? 14

15. The ‘what now?’: A, B, C... Ambitions - - be clear on aspirations vs problem-solving; - be clear on the VA of a regional approach? (and to whom!) - aim for function, manageable groups, - with realistic measures of what is feasible over the medium to long-term success - given path dependency and political traction Brokerage - - link the regional and national levels for key countries; - engage and facilitate public-private-CSO demand for regional processes - based on identified interests and coalitions Champions - - identify and support champion countries/individuals, coalitions - at the political and technical levels, - in regional and national organisations, - in public, private sectors & civil society 15

16. 16 Thank you for your attention For more info: PERIA dossier: http://www.ecdpm.org/periahttp://www.ecdpm.org/peria REC Studies: http://www.ecdpm.org/peria/auhttp://www.ecdpm.org/peria/au …etc for COMESA, EAC, ECOWAS, IGAD, bby@ecdpm.org @brucebyiers

17. Discussion questions 1.How do the findings fit with the past strategy and practice? 2. What are the key aspects that should inform the new strategy? 3. What conclusions do you draw for your own practical work? 17