1. Statistics for Business and Economics Module 1:Probability Theory and Statistical Inference Spring 2010 Lecture 4: Estimating parameters with confidence Priyantha Wijayatunga, Department of Statistics, Umeå University priyantha.wijayatunga@stat.umu.se These materials are altered ones from copyrighted lecture slides (© 2009 W.H. Freeman and Company) from the homepage of the book: The Practice of Business Statistics Using Data for Decisions :Second Edition by Moore, McCabe, Duckworth and Alwan.

2. Estimation of parameters with confidence  Point estimation of mean and variance  Statistical confidence  Confidence intervals  Behavior of confidence intervals  Choosing the sample size  Cautions

3. Overview of Inference: estimation  Methods for drawing conclusions about a population from sample data are called statistical inference  Methods  Point values - estimating of a value of a population parameter with a single value  Confidence Intervals - estimating a value of a population parameter with a range of values with some confidence  Tests of significance - assess evidence for a claim about a population  Inference is appropriate when data are produced by either  a random sample or  a randomized experiment

4. Uncertainty and confidence Although the sample mean,, is a unique number for any particular sample, if you pick a different sample you will probably get a different sample mean. In fact, you could get many different values for the sample mean, and virtually none of them would actually equal the true population mean, . x

5. But the sample distribution is narrower than the population distribution, by a factor of √n. Thus, the estimates gained from our samples are always relatively close to the population parameter µ. n Sample means, n subjects  Population, x individual subjects If the population is normally distributed N(µ,σ), so will the sampling distribution N(µ,σ/√n),

6. Mean and variance are two main characteristics of aproability distribution If we dont know the values of them we estimate them with point values  Take a (random) sample from the popuation  Estimate:  For random samples they are unbiased  Estimating mean and variance of a probability distribution

7. Red dot: mean value of individual sample 95% of all sample means will be within roughly 2 standard deviations (2*  /√n) of the population parameter  Because distances are symmetrical, this implies that the population parameter  must be within roughly 2 standard deviations from the sample average, in 95% of all samples. This reasoning is the essence of statistical inference.

8. The weight of a single egg of the brown variety is normally distributed N(65 g,5 g). Think of a carton of 12 brown eggs as an SRS of size 12.. You buy a carton of 12 white eggs instead. The box weighs 770 g. The average egg weight from that SRS is thus = 64.2 g.  Knowing that the standard deviation of egg weight is 5 g, what can you infer about the mean µ of the white egg population? There is a 95% chance that the population mean µ is roughly within ± 2  /√n of, or 64.2 g ± 2.88 g. population sample  What is the distribution of the sample means ? Normal (mean , standard deviation  /√n) = N(65 g,1.44 g).  Find the middle 95% of the sample means distribution. Roughly ± 2 standard deviations from the mean, or 65g ± 2.88g.

9. Confidence interval The confidence interval is a range of values with an associated probability or confidence level C. The probability quantifies the chance that the interval contains the true population parameter. ± 4.2 is a 95% confidence interval for the population parameter . This equation says that in 95% of the cases, the actual value of  will be within 4.2 units of the value of.

10. Implications We don’t need to take a lot of random samples to “rebuild” the sampling distribution and find  at its center. n n Sample Population  All we need is one SRS of size n and relying on the properties of the sample means distribution to infer the population mean .

11. Reworded With 95% confidence, we can say that µ should be within roughly 2 standard deviations (2*  /√n) from our sample mean.  In 95% of all possible samples of this size n, µ will indeed fall in our confidence interval.  In only 5% of samples would be farther from µ.

12. A confidence interval can be expressed as:  Mean ± m m is called the margin of error  within ± m Example: 120 ± 6  Two endpoints of an interval  within ( − m) to ( + m) ex. 114 to 126 A confidence level C (in %) indicates the probability that the µ falls within the interval. It represents the area under the normal curve within ± m of the center of the curve. mm

13. Review: standardizing the normal curve using z N(0,1) N(64.5, 2.5) N(µ, σ/√n) Standardized height (no units) Here, we work with the sampling distribution, and  /√n is its standard deviation (spread). Remember that  is the standard deviation of the original population.

14. Confidence intervals contain the population mean  in C% of samples. Different areas under the curve give different confidence levels C. Example: For an 80% confidence level C, 80% of the normal curve’s area is contained in the interval. C z*z*−z*−z* Varying confidence levels Practical use of z: z*  The critical value z* is related to the chosen confidence level C.  C is the area under the standard normal curve between −z* and z*. The confidence interval is thus:

15. How do we find specific z* values? We can use a table of z/t values (Table C). For a particular confidence level, C, the appropriate z* value is just above it. We can use software. In Excel: =NORMINV(probability,mean,standard_dev) gives z for a given cumulative probability. Since we want the middle C probability, the probability we require is (1 - C)/2 Example: For a 98% confidence level, =NORMINV(.01,0,1) = −2.32635 (= neg. z*) Example: For a 98% confidence level, z*=2.326

16. Link between confidence level and margin of error The confidence level C determines the value of z* (in table C). The margin of error also depends on z*. C z*z*−z* m Higher confidence C implies a larger margin of error m (thus less precision in our estimates). A lower confidence level C produces a smaller margin of error m (thus better precision in our estimates).

17. How confidence intervals behave The margin of error gets smaller:  When z* gets smaller. Smaller z* is the same as lower confidence level C.  When σ gets smaller. It is easier to estimate μ when σ is small.  When n gets larger.

18. Changing the sample size n  95% confidence interval for the mean LTDR, z* = 1.96, n = 110. = 76.7 ± 1.96(12.3/√110) = 76.7 ± 2.3 = (74.4, 79.0)  95% confidence interval for the mean LTDR, z* = 1.96, n = 25. = 76.7 ± 1.96(12.3/√25) = 76.7 ± 4.8 = (71.9, 81.5) Banks’ Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LTDR) The mean LTDR for 110 banks is 76.7 and the standard deviation s = 12.3. The sample is large enough for us to use s as σ. Give a 95% confidence interval for mean LTDR. Suppose there were only 25 banks in the survey, and the sample mean and σ are unchanged. The margin of error increases for the smaller sample.

19. Impact of sample size The spread in the sampling distribution of the mean is a function of the number of individuals per sample.  The larger the sample size, the smaller the standard deviation (spread) of the sample mean distribution.  But the spread only decreases at a rate equal to √n. Sample size n Standard error  ⁄ √n

20. Sample size and experimental design You may need a certain margin of error (e.g., drug trial, manufacturing specs). In many cases, the population variability (  is fixed, but we can choose the number of measurements (n). So plan ahead what sample size to use to achieve that margin of error. Remember, though, that sample size is not always stretchable at will. There are typically costs and constraints associated with large samples. The best approach is to use the smallest sample size that can give you useful results.

21. What sample size for a given margin of error? Banks’ Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LTDR) Recall that we found margin of error = 2.3 for estimating the mean LTDR of banks with n = 110 and 95% confidence. We are willing to settle for margin of error 3.0 next year. How many banks should we survey? For 95% confidence, z* = 1.96, assume σ = 12.3. Using only 64 observations will not be enough to ensure that m is no more than 3.0. Therefore, we need at least 65 observations.

22. Some cautions  The data must be an SRS from the population.  The formula is not correct for sampling designs more complex than an SRS (such as multistage or stratified samples).  Outliers can have a large effect on the confidence interval.  Examine your data carefully for skewness and other signs of non- Normality.  You must know the standard deviation σ of the population.