1. EU-27 energy saving potential for Industry and Households Appliances Copenhagen September 2010

2. The BaU of industrial energy consumption 2 | EU industry energy saving potential Source: DG TREN ”European Energy and Transport TRENDS TO 2030 – UPDATE 2007”

3. EU27 Industry in 2020 3 | EU industry energy saving potential Energy saving indicator calculations:  Industrisal consumption of 1,300 TWh/a can potentially be saved  Primary energy saved amounts to 7,500 PJ/a Electrical savings: 520 TWh/a x 2.5 x 3.6 = 4,700 PJ/a Fuel savings: 780 TWh/a x 3.6 = 2800 PJ/a Industrial energy projects are affected by both internal and external factors:  Financing of projects has to compete with capacity investments  Uncertainties of fluctuations in energy price and tax levels  Uncertainties of influence on plant capacity or product quality Total EU energy consumption in 2020*: 23,000 TWh * DG TREN ”European Energy and Transport TRENDS TO 2030 – UPDATE 2007”

4. Danish Assessment Report - 2010 4 | EU industry energy saving potential All Danish industrial sectors evaluated:  Energy Mapping of sectors  Technical opportunities reviewed in detail  Financial aspects included  DK energy prices and taxes  Opportunities with Pay-Back Period (PBP) of 2, 4, 10 years listed within 11 most significant end- users Indicator calculations: Danish energy saving opportunities with 10 years PBP assumed to reflect a realistic feasible potential in EU

5. The 11 significant end-users 5 | EU industry energy saving potential Mainly fuels Mainly electricity 85 % of energy in DK industry End-user Saving potential w/ 10 yrs PBP Boilers and distribution 10% Heating/boiling 28% Drying26% Evaporation 57% Burning 20% Proces integration 23% Pumps 34% Cooling/refrigreration 39% Ventilation 36% Compressed air 43% Other motors 34% Assumption: DK industry energy consumption = 1% of EU27

6. 1. Indicator of potential 6 | EU industry energy saving potential Danish report of 10 years PBP gave these potentials Electrical saving potential: 41 % Fuel saving potential: 26 % Applied to 2020 EU-27 BaU these figures correlate to  Electrical saving potential: 45 Mtoe = 525 TWh  Fuel saving potential: 68 Mtoe = 786 TWh  Total: 113 Mtoe = 1,311 TWh First indication suggests that 30 % saving of projected energy consumption in EU-27 industries for 2020 is achievable.

7. The BaU divided into sectors 7 | EU industry energy saving potential Data collected from: DG TREN ”European Energy and Transport TRENDS TO 2030 – UPDATE 2007”

8. 2. Indicator of potential 8 | EU industry energy saving potential Energy saving potentials of DK within each of 11 end- users applied to EU27 industry composition: 473 Mtoe  361 Mtoe = 112 Mtoe (1299 TWh)

9. Saving potential in industry relative to energy saving targets in EU 9 | EU industry energy saving potential Saving potential in industry Mtoe Compared to baseline consumption (1968 Mtoe) Compared to reduction target (394 Mtoe) Compared to gap (208 Mtoe) Industry savings with 10 years PBP 112 Mtoe6 %29 %54 % Industry savings with 2 years PBP 43 Mtoe2 %11 %21 % PBP: Pay-Back-Period

10. Technology break-down of Industry IA 10 | EU industry energy saving potential EU27 energy savings Drying| Food and dairy, chemical, minerals, paper, pharmaceutical etc. Evaporation| Food and dairy, chemical etc. Burning/kiln| Cement, steel and iron, bricks, minerals etc. Proces heating/boiling| Steel and iron, minerals, food and dair, chemical etc. Motors| All industries. Refrigeration/cooling| Food and dairy, chemical, pharmaceutical,.

11. Example: Implement IE4 11 | Danish Energy Association IE4 efficiencies assumed from existing labelling schemes:

12. IE4 mandatory from 2011 12 | Danish Energy Association Calculation basics same as Impact Assessment - Total stock and replacement rate - Distribution of 1.1 kW, 11 kW and 110 kW motors - Load 60% and 4,000 annual operation hours End-user saving potential in 2020: 69 TWh/a Primary energy saving in 2020: 621 PJ/a VSD mandatory from 2013

13. Example: Drying technology 13 | EU industry energy saving potential Various drying technologies exist:  Spray drying: Dairy powders, chemicals, pigments etc.  Fluid-bed drying: Dairy powders, chemicals, pigments etc.  Drum drying: Sugar, grass, clay etc.  Plate drying: Fishmeal, chemicals etc.  Tunnel drying: Bakeries, bricks etc.  IR drying: Paper, coatings etc.  Freeze drying: Coffee, ingredients etc.  Chamber drying: Wood, confectionary etc. Tunnel dryer for bricks

14. Spray Drying technical optimisation 14 | EU industry energy saving potential  Re-use heat from exhaust to inlet, possibly also with heat pump installed  Nozzle optimisation for improved flow patterns  Direct firing for heating inlet air  Energy efficient motors plus fans and use of VSD  Optimised cleaning principles  Automatic and precise control measures  Utilise waste heat from general plant

15. EU27 Drying energy saving potential 15 | EU industry energy saving potential Besides technical optimisation (previous slide), a number of relatively new technologies are explored:  Use of superheated steam for drying  Microwave – as used in wood industry  Direct natural gas firing used for drying  Mechanical Vapour Recompression for drying sludge In total, a energy saving potential of 26 % has been assessed for Danish drying technologies, accounting for 11 % of total consumption in industry. Correlating to EU27 in 2020 this saving potential is: 150 TWh

16. Example: Evaporation 16 | EU industry energy saving potential Evaporation is used in various industries for concentrating liquids:  Concentration of milk for powder production  Sugar factories  Refineries  Dairy products and juices  Ingredients  Pharmaceutical and chemical Falling film evaporator

17. Multiple-effect evaporation 17 | EU industry energy saving potential Evaporation performed in multiple steps (”effects”) and under vacuum in order to re-use heat internally in evaporator. For EU dairy industries it is normal to have 3 effects, whereas new plants are constructed with 4-5 effects and saves 50 % of steam energy. Utilising 7 effects with TVR vacuum will save another 35 % of steam consumption.

18. Evaporation technology 18 | EU industry energy saving potential Other means for optimisation of evaporators  Use of mechanical technology (MVR) for supplying vacuum rather than thermal (TVR)  Preheat of incoming feed in effects  Optimise number of effects  Maintenance and cleaning properly to avoid fouling  Use of flash-regenerator after pasteurisation unit (if needed) In total, a energy saving potential of 57 % has been assessed for Danish evaporation technologies, accounting for 4 % of total consumption in industry. Correlating to EU27 in 2020 the saving potential is: 125 TWh

19. Methodology used 19 | EU industry energy saving potential  The saving potentials indicated above comprise energy saving measures that can be implemented in existing facilities via a wide range of measures: improved maintenance, optimum operation of plants, change to new and more efficient technology.  The saving potentials are assessed accepting payback periods up to 10 years and considering the present level of technology (some plants in operation are old and in-efficient).  Some saving measures are not included above due to high investments (and payback higher than 10 years)  Considering a purchase situation, where new production capacity shall be installed anyway, the saving potential might be higher than indicated above, because only the additional costs for the best available technology compared to the average technology need to be taken into account.

20. Household Appliances The potential electricity savings for 2010 - 2020

21. Objektives for Household Savings  Calculate the power savings from buying the best available technology (BAT) of household appliances in 2010.  Compare to normal development (BAU)  BAU includes the existing Eco design claims  Using a 10 years period (2010 – 2020)

22. Methodology  Unknown technological progress are not taken into consideration  Groups of appliances includes different sizes or subtypes  The electricity consumption of the appliances takes into consideration: o Standby consumption, o Normal time consumption per year, o Sales in 2010, o Life time of the appliances.

23. Example: Annual bulb stock in DK Development of bulbs sold after 2010. Life time calculation used 23 | EU industry saving potential

24. Bulb calculation method DK Annual stock of bulbs (sold after 2010) in 2020 of old technology is 75, 7 millions. This corresponds to energy consumption of 1075 GWh/year 75,7 millions LED lamps corresponds to energy consumption of 414 GWh/year The savings is 661 GWh/year or 61% 24 | EU industry saving potential

25. LED becomes more powerful 25 | EU industry saving potential

26. Only Flouroscent lamps scenario 26 | EU industry saving potential

27. Only Flouroscent scenario DK Annual stock of bulbs (sold after 2010) in 2020 of old technology is 85,3 millions. This corresponds to energy consumption of 1027 GWh/year The savings is 48 GWh/year or 4,4% 27 | EU industry saving potential

28. Annual Savings 2010-2020 DK Appliances group Normal consumption (BAU), DK GWh/year Best appliances (BAT), DK GWh/year Energy savings (BAT), DK GWh/year CO2 savings (BAT),DK Tons/year Fridge/Freezers677441236118 000 TV518*250267133 700 PC1783614271 000 Set-top boxes92 *603216 000 Circ. pump1974914873 800 Wash1 100700400200 000 Food836600236118 000 Lighting1 027 *467560280 200 SUM 4 6252 6032 0211 010 700 Households (All) 8200461535841792252 *) Eco design claims included. **) ’Elmodelbolig’ forecast for 2020

29. Annual Savings 2010-2020 EU Appliances groupBest appliances (BAT), EU TWh/year CO2 savings (BAT), EU Mio.tons/year Primary Energy (BAT), EU Mtoe/year Economical savings (BAT), EU, Mia.DKR/year Fridge/Freezers11.82.5 13.2 TV15.43.2 3.3 17.2 PC7.11.5 7.9 Set-top boxes1.80.4 2.1 Circ. pump7.41.5 1.6 8.2 Wash20.04.2 4.3 22.4 Food11.82.5 13.2 Lighting285.8 6.0 31.3 SUM 1032223116 Households (2020) 1914041212

30. Annual Savings 2010-2020 relative to energy saving targets EU Appliances group Primary Energy (BAT), EU % of baseline (= 1968 Mtoe) Primary Energy (BAT), EU % of target (= 393 Mtoe) Primary Energy (BAT), EU % of Policy Gap (= 208 Mtoe) Fridge/Freezers 0.130.641.20 TV 0.170.841.59 PC 0.080.390.73 Set-top boxes 0.020.100.19 Circ. pump 0.080.410.77 Wash 0.221.092.07 Food 0.130.641.20 Lighting 0.311.532.89 SUM 1.135.6310.65 Households (all) 2.0610.319.5

31. Conclusions for households EU  The energy savings for the BAT scenarios correspond to 44 % of BAU  Highest savings in absolute numbers are: o Lighting (55 % using LED technology) o Wash (36 % using LED technology)  Highest savings relatively are: o PC (80 %) o Circulator pumps (75 % )

32. Conclusions Households and Industry  The energy savings when using BAT in households can account for:  2 % of the baseline energy level  10 % of the target savings  20 % of the political gap  The energy savings in industry using measures with PBP up to 10 years:  6 % of the baseline energy level  29 % of the target savings  54 % of the political gap  The energy savings in industry using measures with PBP up to 2 years:  2 % of the baseline energy level  11 % of the target savings  21 % of the political gap