1. Trends in the global pattern in the trade in food - and the role of the UK Mike Garratt and Antonella Teodoro 27 th October 2015, H.Q.S. Wellington, London 215079_presentation_v10

2. 1. Paper will cover Food’s share of world trade Global trends in the trade in food The EU share of world trade UK share and shifting trading relationship Implications for the maritime sector

3. 2.World Trade 1996 - 2014 Volumes - billions Tonnes 19962014CAGR 1996-2014 All tonnes:6.1812.684.1% of which Energy2.975.143.1% Industrial goods & raw materials2.525.874.8% Consumer goods0.070.175.2% Food stuffs0.631.504.9% Total containerised/unitised0.962.114.5% Estimated value - Trillions US$ (2014 values) 19962014CAGR 1996-2014 All value:7.4417.034.7% of which Energy0.602.688.7% Industrial goods & raw materials5.2611.224.3% Consumer goods1.072.194.1% Food stuffs0.510.953.5% Total containerised/unitised5.0310.194.0% Global trade growing: - 4.1% p.a. by tonnes - 4.7% p.a. by (real) value Food trade growing: - 4.9% p.a. by tonnes - 3.5% p.a. by (real) value Over same time period: - 2.0% p.a. GDP growth - 1.2% p.a. pop. growth Global trade in food growing 1.5% > GDP

4. 3. Trends by broad sectors: billion tonnes - and medium term forecasts Consumer goods expected to grow fastest Food growing 2.7% p.a. - versus current population +1.1% p.a. Based on trends: - food trade to grow 1.6% p.a. faster than population - Trade benefits from urbanization and economic specialization

5. 4. Food: tonnes & values by cargo group 1996 - 2014 Volumes - millions Tonnes 19962014CAGR 1996-2014 Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)23.8551.674.4% Dairy Products & Eggs17.5538.154.4% Fish & Fish Preparations16.2632.513.9% Cereals & Cereal Preparations226.69451.473.9% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts102.31215.334.2% Sugar & Sugar Preparations43.8981.293.5% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices13.0025.993.9% Animal Feedingstuffs85.36166.683.8% Beverages104.0186.70-1.0% Grand Total632.911,149.793.4% Estimated value - Trillions US$ (2014 values) 19962014CAGR 1996-2014 Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals) 83.58159.023.6% Dairy Products & Eggs 45.0584.183.5% Fish & Fish Preparations 77.43130.622.9% Cereals & Cereal Preparations 91.04154.703.0% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 114.46223.913.8% Sugar & Sugar Preparations 28.4343.262.4% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices 47.9394.613.9% Animal Feedingstuffs 36.8880.084.4% Beverages 48.9596.923.9% Grand Total 573.751,067.293.5% Consistent tonnage growth across all categories except beverages Real value growing at similar rate to tonnes - except beverages $/tonne +5% p.a.

6. 5. Meat: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.10.20.00.50.1 0.9 Australasia & Oc.1.8 0.30.00.30.80.03.3 Gulf & ISC1.00.0 0.30.00.21.4 Latin America2.20.01.5 2.50.20.77.1 N Europe & Med2.80.10.70.1 1.04.8 North America4.80.10.40.90.7 0.57.4 Sub S Africa0.10.00.10.0 0.3 Grand Total12.60.33.31.04.21.22.625.2 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.00.20.00.20.00.10.5 Australasia & Oc.1.0 0.10.0 0.30.01.3 Gulf & ISC0.90.0 0.20.00.21.3 Latin America1.90.01.3 2.10.10.76.1 N Europe & Med2.30.10.30.0 0.83.5 North America2.80.10.40.7-0.8 0.53.7 Sub S Africa0.10.00.10.0 0.2 Grand Total8.90.32.30.81.70.42.216.6 Volumes tripled 54% growth to Asia 59% growth from Americas

7. 6. Cereals: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISCLatin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.41.81.11.80.94.810.8 Australasia & Oc.16.3 6.40.10.60.11.324.8 Gulf & ISC4.70.1 0.02.30.46.714.3 Latin America17.80.09.8 12.80.51.842.6 N Europe & Med10.20.224.41.7 1.610.949.0 North America41.20.26.726.914.0 4.893.9 Sub S Africa0.40.00.20.00.20.0 0.8 Grand Total90.60.949.229.931.73.530.3236.2 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.31.50.81.10.53.57.7 Australasia & Oc.5.9 5.1-0.6-0.70.10.510.4 Gulf & ISC3.60.1 0.0-0.80.45.99.3 Latin America15.60.09.4 10.10.11.436.7 N Europe & Med7.70.218.90.1 1.28.836.9 North America-3.90.1-0.414.2-7.4 2.14.7 Sub S Africa-0.70.0-0.2 0.1-0.2 -1.2 Grand Total28.20.734.314.22.62.022.3104.3 Volumes +79% 60% growth to Asia/Gulf/ISC Both Latin America and European exports grow by 35%

8. 7. Dairy: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.00.10.0 0.10.2 Australasia & Oc.2.1 0.50.20.50.20.13.5 Gulf & ISC0.0 0.10.00.10.2 Latin America0.10.0 0.20.1 0.4 N Europe & Med1.30.11.30.1 0.20.53.5 North America0.90.1 0.20.1 0.01.4 Sub S Africa0.0 Grand Total4.50.12.00.50.90.40.89.2 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.00.10.0 0.10.2 Australasia & Oc.1.3 0.40.00.20.00.11.9 Gulf & ISC0.0 0.10.00.10.2 Latin America0.10.0 0.20.00.10.4 N Europe & Med0.80.00.9-0.1 0.31.8 North America0.70.1 0.0 1.0 Sub S Africa0.0 Grand Total2.90.11.50.00.50.00.65.5 Volumes +153% 52% growth to Asia 38% growth from Europe 33% growth from Australasia

9. 8. Fish: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.4 1.81.70.55.0 Australasia & Oc.0.6 0.0 0.10.00.10.8 Gulf & ISC0.70.0 0.30.20.01.2 Latin America0.70.0 1.00.60.32.6 N Europe & Med2.20.00.10.2 1.03.7 North America1.20.0 0.10.7 0.01.9 Sub S Africa0.10.0 0.50.0 0.8 Grand Total5.40.50.60.74.32.61.916.1 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.3 0.41.41.10.53.9 Australasia & Oc.0.3 0.0 0.10.4 Gulf & ISC0.50.0 0.20.10.00.8 Latin America0.40.0 0.40.20.31.4 N Europe & Med1.00.00.10.0 -0.10.51.6 North America0.30.0 0.4 0.00.7 Sub S Africa0.0 0.10.0 0.2 Grand Total2.50.30.5 2.51.4 9.1 Growth of 138% Growth mainly to Asia and Europe Growth mainly from Asia

10. 9. Animal feed: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 2.10.60.12.80.40.86.7 Australasia & Oc.1.3 0.0 0.1 0.01.5 Gulf & ISC3.70.0 0.70.00.14.5 Latin America12.71.03.2 25.20.20.743.1 N Europe & Med1.60.12.30.2 0.34.7 North America14.90.20.84.04.1 0.024.0 Sub S Africa0.20.00.50.00.50.1 1.4 Grand Total34.63.37.54.433.41.01.985.9 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 2.00.50.1 0.40.83.8 Australasia & Oc.0.6 0.0 -0.10.10.00.5 Gulf & ISC-0.60.0 -0.20.00.1-0.7 Latin America6.80.93.2 7.60.10.218.8 N Europe & Med1.30.02.20.2 0.10.24.1 North America9.0-0.10.42.4-4.9 0.06.8 Sub S Africa0.20.00.50.00.10.0 0.8 Grand Total17.32.96.82.72.50.51.334.1 Volumes grew 86% 54% of all growth to Asia 76% of all growth from Americas

11. 10. Beverages: Inter-regional change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.30.20.10.30.50.11.4 Australasia & Oc.0.4 0.0 0.40.50.01.4 Gulf & ISC0.0 0.30.00.10.4 Latin America0.20.0 0.5 0.01.3 N Europe & Med2.90.43.20.5 4.31.612.8 North America0.70.30.00.80.7 0.02.5 Sub S Africa0.0 0.10.00.40.0 0.5 Grand Total4.21.03.51.32.55.91.820.3 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.30.20.10.20.40.11.2 Australasia & Oc.0.3 0.0 0.30.50.01.1 Gulf & ISC0.0 0.20.00.10.4 Latin America0.20.0 0.30.40.00.9 N Europe & Med2.00.3-8.50.2 2.31.2-2.5 North America0.00.30.00.40.3 0.01.0 Sub S Africa0.0 0.10.00.30.0 0.4 Grand Total2.60.9-8.20.61.63.61.42.4 Low growth in volume (+13%) Main decline Europe to Gulf/ISC Asia imports grew +162%

12. 11. Fruit & veg.: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.44.00.53.42.50.611.5 Australasia & Oc.1.3 1.20.01.00.20.03.6 Gulf & ISC0.90.0 2.10.20.53.8 Latin America1.30.10.4 13.311.00.126.2 N Europe & Med1.20.37.81.0 1.21.413.0 North America4.10.34.01.32.9 0.212.7 Sub S Africa1.20.02.00.02.70.2 6.2 Grand Total9.91.319.42.925.515.32.777.0 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.33.20.3-1.11.20.54.4 Australasia & Oc.0.3 0.90.00.40.0 1.6 Gulf & ISC0.60.0 1.10.10.52.4 Latin America0.60.00.2 6.53.60.011.0 N Europe & Med0.80.26.70.7 0.41.19.9 North America1.20.23.70.40.6 0.16.3 Sub S Africa1.10.01.70.00.90.1 3.8 Grand Total4.70.816.41.58.45.42.239.4 Volumes grew 105% 42% all grow to Gulf/ISC 28% all growth from Latin America

13. 12. Sugar (etc.) inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.30.90.10.90.40.63.2 Australasia & Oc.2.7 0.1 0.2 0.03.3 Gulf & ISC0.10.0 1.10.11.32.6 Latin America4.70.18.3 9.23.44.229.9 N Europe & Med0.20.11.50.0 0.20.42.5 North America0.50.10.00.20.6 0.11.6 Sub S Africa0.10.00.20.01.50.1 1.9 Grand Total8.50.611.00.513.54.46.745.1 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.3 0.10.70.00.51.9 Australasia & Oc.0.0 0.1-0.5-1.20.0-1.5 Gulf & ISC-0.20.0 -1.30.01.2-0.2 Latin America3.70.17.7 4.2-0.33.619.0 N Europe & Med0.00.10.50.0 0.1-0.10.6 North America0.30.10.0 -0.1 0.10.4 Sub S Africa-0.30.00.10.00.1-0.3 Grand Total3.60.58.60.23.0-1.55.419.8 Volumes grew 78% 43% growth to Gulf/ISC Almost all net growth from Latin America

14. 13. Tea/Coffee etc.: Inter-regional distrib. and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.10.60.01.80.70.13.3 Australasia & Oc.0.1 0.0 0.2 Gulf & ISC0.40.0 0.70.20.11.4 Latin America0.40.0 2.21.50.04.3 N Europe & Med0.30.10.40.1 0.40.11.3 North America0.10.0 0.1 0.00.3 Sub S Africa0.40.00.30.12.70.5 4.1 Grand Total1.70.31.40.37.53.30.314.8 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 0.00.50.01.10.20.12.0 Australasia & Oc.0.0 Gulf & ISC0.30.0 0.30.10.00.7 Latin America0.20.0 0.80.60.01.6 N Europe & Med0.10.00.40.0 0.10.00.8 North America0.0 0.10.0 0.2 Sub S Africa0.30.00.20.10.50.2 1.4 Grand Total1.00.21.10.22.71.30.26.6 Volumes grew 78% 41% growth to Europe 30% growth from Asia

15. 14. All food: Inter-regional distribution and change 2014 Tonnages (million tonnes) Change 1996 – 2014 (million tonnes) From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 4.08.72.313.17.17.743.0 Australasia & Oc.26.7 8.50.43.22.11.542.5 Gulf & ISC11.50.2 0.17.91.19.129.9 Latin America40.11.323.3 67.018.07.9157.6 N Europe & Med22.61.341.83.9 8.417.095.1 North America68.41.212.134.423.9 5.7145.7 Sub S Africa2.60.23.50.28.51.0 15.9 Grand Total171.98.297.941.5123.637.749.0529.7 From To:Asia Australasia & Oceania Gulf & ISC Latin America N Europe & Med North America Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Asia 3.66.61.83.63.96.225.5 Australasia & Oc.9.6 6.5-0.4-0.3 0.715.7 Gulf & ISC5.20.2 0.0-0.10.78.114.1 Latin America29.61.121.9 32.14.86.495.9 N Europe & Med15.91.021.51.2 4.113.056.7 North America10.50.74.318.3-11.9 2.824.7 Sub S Africa0.70.12.6-0.12.1-0.2 5.3 Grand Total71.66.663.320.725.513.237.1237.9 Volumes grew 95% 64% growth to Asia/Gulf + ISC 45% growth from Americas

16. 15. Intra N Europe & Med. 1996 - 2014 m tonnes SITC at 2-digit level19962014 1996-2014 absolute terms 1996-2014 % terms Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals) 10.719.0+8.3 +78% Dairy Products & Eggs 12.624.9+12.4 +98% Fish & Fish Preparations 5.48.1+2.7 +51% Cereals & Cereal Preparations 57.3136.8+79.5 +139% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 45.276.2+31.0 +68% Sugar & Sugar Preparations 10.015.6+5.6 +55% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices 3.16.9+3.8 +123% Animal Feedingstuffs 23.649.8+26.1 +110% Beverages 24.146.5+22.3 +92% Grand Total: intra Europe & Med 192.1383.8+191.7 +100% Grand Total: deep-sea 98.1123.6+25.5 +26% Overall total 290.2507.4+217.2 +75% Intra European food trade doubled Growth highest in cereals - lowest in fish and sugar Internal growth much faster than deep-sea imports

17. 16. Importers: Focus on individual importing countries: principle changes 1996 - 2014 - countries where imports 2014 > 10m tonnes Destination Country Thousands Tonnes, 1996 Thousands Tonnes, 2014 1996-2014 % change 1996-2014 CAGR Vietnam0.819.62422%20% Iraq0.510.61834%18% Bangladesh0.912.51348%16% Iran2.925.5784%13% UAE2.813.8400%9% Algeria4.818.0271%8% Thailand3.411.0226%7% China18.557.0209%6% Egypt10.430.5194%6% Saudi Arabia8.324.3194%6% Vietnam fastest growing importer - and in absolute terms China

18. 17. Exporters: focus on individual source countries: principle changes 1996 - 2014 - countries where exports tonnes 2014 > 10m tonnes Fastest growing exporter Ukraine - and in absolute terms Brazil Origin Country Thousands Tonnes, 1996 Thousands Tonnes, 2014 1996-2014 % change 1996-2014 CAGR Ukraine4.942.5770%13% Czech Republic1.712.8640%12% Poland2.616.4536%11% Romania2.011.2473%10% Vietnam2.514.5472%10% Brazil21.574.0244%7% Russia9.632.4238%7% Mexico7.020.4191%6% Turkey4.411.8170%6% India13.435.3163%6%

19. 18. UK imports 2014, thousands tonnes Total Imports into the UK Imports from N Europe Imports from Mediterranean Imports from N America, S America, Africa and Australasia Other Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)2.11.60.10.30.1 Dairy Products & Eggs1.41.30.10.0- Fish & Fish Preparations0.80.40.00.10.3 Cereals & Cereal Preparations6.13.31.60.80.4 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts9.53.72.92.50.4 Sugar & Sugar Preparations2.41.10.01.1-.2 Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices0.90.50.00.2 Animal Feedingstuffs4.92.50.41.50.5 Beverages4.32.70.80.70.1 Grand Total32.517.26.07.22.1 Total UK food imports 32.5m tonnes - 71% from Europe/Med Principal imports fruit & vegetables (29%)

20. 19. UK imports 2014 ‘000s tonnesmain commodities ‘Maize unmilled’ and ‘Other wheat’ equal 12% all food imports to UK Wine, water and beer equate to 10% Top 20 SITC at 5-dgit levelTonnes Maize (not including sweet corn), unmilled; other2,104 Other wheat (including spelt) and meslin, unmilled1,764 Oil-cake and other solid residues (except dregs), whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of fats or oils from oil-seeds, oleaginous fruits and germs of cereals;of soya beans 1,486 Wine of fresh grapes (other than sparkling wine); grape must with fermentation prevented or arrested by the addition of alcohol1,262 Bananas (including plantains), fresh or dried1,143 Waters (including mineral waters and aerated waters) containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured, and other non- alcoholic beverages, n.e.s. 1,020 Beer made from malt (including ale, stout and porter)869 Cane sugar, raw723 Waters, including natural or artificial mineral waters and aerated waters, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured; ice and snow. 647 Other bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares, whether or not containing cocoa in any proportion; communion wafers, empty cachets of a kind suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice-paper and similar products. 604 Cane molasses533 Preparations of a kind used for animal food, n.e.s.532 Bran, sharps and other residues, whether or not in the form of pellets, derived from the sifting, milling or other working of cereals or of leguminous plants;of leguminous plants 513 Potatoes prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, frozen502 Other vegetables, fresh or chilled487 Oil-cake and other solid residues (except dregs), whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of fats or oils from oil-seeds, oleaginous fruits and germs of cereals;of sunflower seeds 471 Apples, fresh438 Oil-cake and other solid residues (except dregs), whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of fats or oils from oil-seeds, oleaginous fruits and germs of cereals;of palm nuts or kernels 430 Tomatoes, fresh or chilled398 Orange juice391 Others16,128 Grand Total32,445

21. 20. Changes in UK sourcing 1996 – 2014 - absolute (‘000s tonnes) and % change Changes in UK sourcing 1996 - 2014 % Total Imports into the UK Imports from N Europe Imports from Mediterranean Imports from N America, S America, Africa and Australasia Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)68%72%226%-8% Dairy Products & Eggs113%130%447%-67% Fish & Fish Preparations44%21%78%40% Cereals & Cereal Preparations88%55%635%-3% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts48%66%20%55% Sugar & Sugar Preparations0%170%-60%-36% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices16%92%207%-41% Animal Feedingstuffs11%55%578%-28% Beverages118%103%109%198% Grand Total49%74%84%0% Changes in UK sourcing 1996 - 2014 Total Imports into the UK Imports from N Europe Imports from Mediterranean Imports from N America, S America, Africa and Australasia Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)0.840.660.06-0.02 Dairy Products & Eggs0.750.730.08-0.06 Fish & Fish Preparations0.240.070.010.04 Cereals & Cereal Preparations2.861.171.40-0.02 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts3.071.470.490.90 Sugar & Sugar Preparations0.010.71-0.07-0.59 Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices0.130.240.03-0.17 Animal Feedingstuffs0.500.900.33-0.58 Beverages2.331.380.410.49 Grand Total10.737.332.75-0.02 Growth 84% over 18 years Growth fastest in beverages…..decline greatest in dairy

22. 21. UK Imports 2014 - countries where imports (from) > 100,000 tonnes Destination Country Thousands Tonnes, 1996 Thousands Tonnes, 2014 1996-2014 % change 1996-2014 CAGR Algeria3,011468,72815467%32% Egypt14,548311,6022042%19% Irish Republic1,608,5723,036,00489%4% Netherlands879,5901,220,42739%2% USA344,160445,27329%1% France1,275,600961,850-25%-2% Belgium558,237414,398-26%-2% Spain1,377,910932,161-32%-2% Portugal457,194260,688-43%-3% Germany1,058,763592,495-44%-3% Greatest absolute increases from Ireland, Algeria and Netherlands Declines to Spain and Germany

23. 22. UK exports 2014, thousands tonnes Total UK food exports 11.9m tonnes - 82% from Europe/Med Principal exports in cereals & cereal preparations (31%) Total Exports from the UK Exports to N Europe Exports to Mediterranean Exports to N America, S America, Africa and Australasia Other Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)1.00.70.1 Dairy Products & Eggs1.21.00.10.00.1 Fish & Fish Preparations0.60.40.1 - Cereals & Cereal Preparations3.71.91.30.2-.3 Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts1.10.60.40.1- Sugar & Sugar Preparations0.50.40.10.0- Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices0.30.20.0 0.1 Animal Feedingstuffs1.31.00.10.00.2 Beverages2.31.30.20.60.2 Grand Total11.97.42.31.1

24. 23. UK exports 2014, ‘000s tonnes main commodities ‘Other wheat’ and ‘Barley unmilled’ equal 19% all food exports from the UK Whisky, water and beer equate to 16% Top 20 SITC at 5-dgit levelTonnes Other wheat (including spelt) and meslin, unmilled1,134 Barley, unmilled1,124 Whiskies789 Milk and cream, of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1% but not exceeding 6%607 Waters (including mineral waters and aerated waters) containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured, and other non- alcoholic beverages, n.e.s. 549 Beer made from malt (including ale, stout and porter)472 Preparations of a kind used for animal food, n.e.s.420 Potatoes, fresh or chilled (not including sweet potatoes)271 Flours, meals and pellets, of meat or meat offal, unfit for human consumption; greaves269 Flour of wheat or of meslin219 Dog or cat food, put up for retail sale213 Other bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares, whether or not containing cocoa in any proportion; communion wafers, empty cachets of a kind suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice-paper and similar products. 212 Other beet or cane sugar and chemically pure sucrose, in solid form; other195 Malt, whether or not roasted (including malt flour)194 Poultry cuts and offal, frozen165 Gin and geneva155 Oil-cake and other solid residues (except dregs), whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of fats or oils from oil-seeds, oleaginous fruits and germs of cereals;of rape or colza seeds 141 Sweet biscuits, waffles and wafers, gingerbread and the like141 Prepared foods obtained by the swelling or roasting of cereals or cereal products and from unroasted cereal flakes or from mixtures of unroasted and roasted cereal flakes or swelled cereals 137 Beet sugar, raw132 Others4,363 Grand Total11,900

25. 24. UK Exports 2014 - countries where exports (to) > 100,000 tonnes Origin Country Thousands Tonnes, 1996 Thousands Tonnes, 2014 1996-2014 % change 1996-2014 CAGR Romania11,066305,9692665%20% Ecuador12,124162,8881244%16% Colombia23,093304,1971217%15% Sweden19,861182,254818%13% Austria16,995143,166742%13% Switzerland12,851101,710691%12% Vietnam16,972113,690570%11% Poland141,481690,467388%9% Bulgaria36,188173,876380%9% Hungary27,279106,619291%8% Greatest absolute increases to Poland, Romania and Colombia

26. 25. UK food imports & exports 2006 – 2014 m tonnes Stable: net imports approx. 20m tonnes p.a.

27. 26. UK food imports & exports 2006 - 2014 Values (US$, 2014 prices) Highly stable: net deficit approx. $30m

28. 27. Leading gateways for NON UK EU food imports, Tonnes 2014 Top 10 ports Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals) Dairy Products & Eggs Fish & Fish Preparations Cereals & Cereal Preparations Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts Sugar & Sugar Preparations Tea/Coffe e/Cocoa/ Spices Animal Feedingstuffs BeveragesGrand Total London116,8731,21812,080297,824831,480655,31075,600105,421303,2142,399,020 Felixstowe168,6648,025171,922375,838827,737114,232134,59925,082281,0592,107,158 Liverpool11,75876240,146500,516133,499200,933106,528927,88145,0121,967,035 Belfast4,149292463377,0656,72061,6191,968789,5055,7661,247,547 Avonmouth0 98,12818,831142,498 594,154906854,518 Southampton48,9813,45948,06329,859151,7486,35535,897253,332122,284699,978 Portsmouth0 30522,4452992 624523,399 London Gateway42,9741754,1196,947295,25711,77314,354427114,607490,634 Immingham843114128,72437,1761,26127,96237199,3992,346298,195 Dover1 32 269,595316220269,668 All others5,4541,27083,549243,536301,210111,82651,947188,89353,2941,040,978 Grand Total399,69715,315489,0971,966,9203,359,7811,332,810421,2812,984,116929,11411,898,132

29. Top 10 ports Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals) Dairy Products & Eggs Fish & Fish Preparations Cereals & Cereal Preparations Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts Sugar & Sugar Preparations Tea/Coffe e/Cocoa/ Spices Animal Feedingstuffs BeveragesGrand Total Felixstowe146,70214,53914,519108,41095,29360,85816,78491,75497,351646,210 Southampton41,37118,9599,559270,95227,8946,57611,41845,32490,006522,060 London4,9112,0531,160259,45562,3374,7387,48312,05442,640396,830 Grangemouth1,9962,22716,76226,58255,243438010,96880,664194,565 Liverpool2,9283,59548028,8214,2967,04711,9057,98353,162120,218 Avonmouth613271,421115,97013777 28245118,519 Ipswich0 44,95872,132 117,091 Immingham4989062,65357,57934,2014,6832,7765,5986,317115,211 Belfast18,50348,8371,1371,419931 511,47534,276106,629 London Gateway12,7303,78718021,65519,7992,0034,63712,27816,37593,443 All others12,71714,687123,655139,67277,81832,19010,75353,626454,990920,107 Grand Total242,968109,617171,5271,075,475450,081118,21565,886241,086876,0253,350,881 28. Leading gateways for NON UK EU food exports, Tonnes 2014

30. 29. Estimated deep-sea container flows into EU EU(28) deepsea imports in 2014 equated to 15.8m TEU: –food accounting for 14.0% inbound container market SITC at 2-digit levelTEU % of total deepsea imp % of total food Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)89,8510.0%0% Dairy Products & Eggs11,1610.6%4% Fish & Fish Preparations366,1050.1%1% Cereals & Cereal Preparations123,8562.3%17% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts592,0860.8%6% Sugar & Sugar Preparations56,7713.7%27% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices482,7090.4%3% Animal Feedingstuffs398,0083.1%22% Beverages88,3352.5%18% Grand Total of food commodities482,7090.6%4% Total deepsea imports (all commodities)15,811,03814.0%100% Sugar, cereals, beverages and animal foodstuffs dominated

31. 30. UK deep-sea imports: TEU and total tonnes Total UK Deepsea imports in 2014 of 2.6m TEU: –food accounting for 13.2% UK Deepsea imports in 2014 of 103.1m total tonnes: –food accounting for 9.0% SITC at 2-digit level TEUTonnes Volumes, TEU % of total deepsea imp % of total food Volumes, Tonnes % of total deepsea imp % of total food Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals)27,1171.0%7.8%399,8490.4%4.3% Dairy Products & Eggs2,3370.1%0.7%28,7160.0%0.3% Fish & Fish Preparations43,1411.6%12.4%335,9050.3%3.6% Cereals & Cereal Preparations33,2521.3%9.5%1,151,9951.1%12.5% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts101,2913.8%29.0%2,900,1402.8%31.3% Sugar & Sugar Preparations8,8490.3%2.5%1,269,2181.2%13.7% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices43,6991.7%12.5%396,5950.4%4.3% Animal Feedingstuffs54,7812.1%15.7%1,972,4061.9%21.3% Beverages34,5351.3%9.9%797,7920.8%8.6% Grand Total349,00213.2%100.0%9,252,6169.0%100.0% Total deepsea imports2,644,806 103,075,813

32. 31. UK Shortsea imports: all unitised and total tonnes UK Shortsea imports in 2014 of 6.3m TEU (inc trucks): –food accounting for 34.0 % (versus 13% of deep-sea) UK Shortsea imports in 2014 of 187.1m total tonnes: –food accounting for 12.4 % (versus 9% of deep-sea) SITC at 2-digit level TEUTonnes Volumes, TEU % of total shortsea imp % of total food Volumes, Tonnes % of total shortsea imp % of total food Meat & Meat Preparations (incl. live animals) 240,3733.8%11.2%1,676,9070.9%7.2% Dairy Products & Eggs 173,3632.8%8.1%1,383,8600.7%6.0% Fish & Fish Preparations 63,3361.0%3.0%452,7030.2%2.0% Cereals & Cereal Preparations 361,6875.7%16.9%4,942,5912.6%21.3% Vegetables & Fruit, Nuts 573,9299.1%26.8%6,606,1823.5%28.5% Sugar & Sugar Preparations 86,5341.4%4.0%1,166,3900.6%5.0% Tea/Coffee/Cocoa/Spices 151,2232.4%7.1%544,2720.3%2.3% Animal Feedingstuffs 242,9823.9%11.3%2,931,1901.6%12.6% Beverages 249,0484.0%11.6%3,498,4071.9%15.1% Grand Total 2,142,47534.0%100.0%23,202,50212.4%100.0% Total deepsea imports 6,292,933 187,050,537

33. 32. Food cargo trends – summarised Globally food trade growing marginally lower than total tonnages -but overall growth 3.4% p.a. over last 2 decades Growth uniform across most commodities reflecting rising incomes Asia the principal growth destination and the Americas the main growth origin Intra European and global growth rates similar However, for UK imports from Europe growing much faster than deep-sea Beverages, fruit, vegetables and cereal imports growing fastest to UK

34. New ships are being built with economy in mind: –much larger (now up to 20,000 TEU) sharing economies of bulk ships –built for fuel economy, typically sailing at 16 knots (with exceptions!) Forcing in turn consolidation into 4 Alliances 33.Deep-sea container developments

35. Agricultural bulk cargo distribution Europe & Med Latin America North America Far East Australasia & Oceania Sub Saharan Africa Grand Total Belfast1,20354134246 2,132 Liverpool3125814071667161,489 London469492170321811331,477 Bristol309217200191 917 Immingham4882628 21563 Forth544 River Hull & Humber495 Clydeport2371513617 441 Londonderry24317133 393 Ipswich267311 5 286 Hull210 28 238 Manchester202 All others854104970001,055 Grand Total5,8332,1321,45245219317010,232 34.Cargo distribution at UK ports 50% through just 4 ports

36. Unit load distribution: food entry points simply reflects overall unit load port traffics Europe & Med Far EastGulf & ISC North America Latin America Sub Saharan Africa Australasia & Oceania Grand Total Felixstowe6,4107,6591,939421383293016,826 Dover16,123 London10,678908587791624811,904 Immingham10,42635 10,461 Liverpool6,4289724905172227,495 Southampton1,0522,94642671428 5,148 Belfast3,765 Hull2,879 Tees & Hartlepool2,41210983855 2,577 Heysham2,385 Harwich2,353 Holyhead1,749 All others10,81920626711697011,298 Grand Total77,47911,1422,5082,1571,01038728094,963 35.Cargo distribution at UK ports 58% through just 4 ports

37. 36. Opportunities and issues: maritime sector Rapid increase in container vessels capacities and industry re- structuring leading to increase in container market shares -reefer and even bulk sectors Increasing concentration of imports on a handful of gateways Opportunities to process and distribute at these locations -Dover Straits/Thames/Humber etc. Port-centric locations offer also offer low-cost export locations given spare capacity available on out-bound legs Awareness of vulnerability because of that concentration

38. Thank you! mike.garratt@mdst.co.uk