1. The Spatial Impact of Road Pricing on the Accessibility of Port Hinterlands Hilde Meersman, Christa Sys, Eddy Van de Voorde, Thierry Vanelslander

2. 1 Content Introduction Research question Methodology Current situation Impact costs of road transport Reactions from and on the transport and logistics sector Impact on the economy

3. 2 Introduction What: Introducing a kilometre charge for freight transport on the Eurovignette network on Belgian territory for trucks as of 3,5 tonnes Aim: each freight transporter / user of all Belgian road transport infrastructure pays as from now: -As a function of the number of kilometres traveled on this infrastructure. -Possibly to be differentiated according to vehicle type, place and time.

4. 3 Research question To what extent will this freight transport measure impact on the Flemish road transport sector, the logistics sector, the ports and the economy, and in particular to what extent will it make hinterlands less accessible for certain ports?

5. 4 Influence on the Flemish road transport sector Price per tkm or vkm MSC MPC Demand for tkm or vkm Number of tkm or vkm

6. 5 Impact on the Flemish road transport sector

7. 6 Methodology Desk research -Literature review surrounding countries -Micro-economic analysis: calculating different scenarios Model specification is done based on time and distance plus other not-directly assignable costs Differentiate according to distance; origin and destination and national and international transport Field research -Interaction with relevant actors

8. 7 Current situation Now: excise duties on fuel, transport tax and Eurovignette Future: transport tax reduced to absolute European minimum and leave Eurovignette forfaitary system MAM Km/year (average) Transport tax (per km) Eurovignet te (per km) Total (per km) Vehicle

9. 8 Impact road transport costs Scenarios -Location of the transport company: in Belgium or abroad This is relevant for eventual fiscal changes and fiscal regimes that can be employed for compensating the kilometre charge. -Type of transport: national and/or international When part of the trip is driven abroad, eventually still a road vignette will need to be bought (Denmark, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Sweden) -Trip length -Time of the day: peak or off-peak

10. 9 Impact on road transport costs Scenarios Tariffs -One charge in line with German LKW-Maut:€ 0,15 -One peak tariff:€ 0,20 -One off-peak tariff:€ 0,10 -One very low tariff:€ 0,05

11. 10 Trajectories

12. 11 Actually selected trajectories

13. 12 Time and kilometre costs Introducing kilometre charge  differentiating basic formula TK = u’.U + d 1.D 1 + d 2.D 2 + z Time cost  uurcoëfficiënt u -The hourly coefficient is corrected for the dropped Eurovignette and the reduced transport tax up to the European minimum in Belgium, u’ Kilometre cost  kilometre coefficient d -Distance driven abroad, D 1 with d 1 as kilometre coefficient -The distance driven in Belgium, D 2 with d 2 as the kilometre coefficient including the kilometre charge unit tariff Other or specific costs (for instance bridge or tunnel toll, etc.) z

14. 13 Time costs

15. 14 Kilometre costs

16. 15 Reaction of/on the transport/logistics sector Depends on reaction bv shippers on price changes Source: de Jong et al., 2010 The changes of the number of vehicle kilometres as a consequence of a kilometre charge are the result of three effects that each have similar importance : -Reduction of transport demand (-0,3) -Shift to other modes of transport, like rail and inland navigation (-0,3) -Increasing the loading degree (-0,3).

17. 16 Reaction of/on the transport/logistics sector Short runMiddle runLong run - Passing on kilometre costs to customers - Avoiding Belgian territory - Shifting to the lower-level network - Saving in other variable cost elements (maintenance etc.) - Delaying investment - Divesting or outsourcing part of the transport package - Accepting (temporary) cost increases and lower profit levels - Having less empty trips and higher loading levels - Productivity increase - Structural reduction of cost increase per kilometre (e.g. fleet updating by acquiring more energy-friendly vehicles - Searching for additional efficiency improvements (e.g. via strategic co-operation agreements, mergers and acquisitions) - Divesting part of the transport package to other transporters - Introducing vehicles of less than 3,5 tonnes - Shifting from road transport to other modes - Reducing transport- intensive goods - Reorganizing distribution networks and warehousing locations; increasing lot size; searching for economies of scale; decreasing transport distance between point of production and market area

18. 17 INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT

19. 18 Percentage change in total transport cost

20. 19 An example illustrates Trajectory: Antwerp – Lyon Tariff: € 0,20 Scenario: no Eurovignette, min. transport tax:  Cost increase: 2,89%  Reaction from/on the transport/logistics sector: - 0,9 * 0,0289 = -0,0260 Scenario: with Eurovignette, accompanying measure transport tax:  Cost increase: 3,66%  Reaction from/on the transport/logistics sector: - 0,9 * 0,0366 = -0,0329

21. 20 The same example, lower tariff Trajectory: Antwerp – Lyon Tariff: € 0,05 Scenario: no Eurovignette, min. transport tax:  Cost increase: -0,30%  Reaction from/on the transport/logistics sector: - 0,9 * -0,30 = 0,027 Scenario: with Eurovignette, accompanying measure transport tax:  kostenverhoging: 0,47%  Reaction from/on the transport/logistics sector: - 0,9 * 0,047 = -0,0423

22. 21 Percentage change in total transport cost

23. 22 International comparison

24. 23 NATIONAL TRANSPORT

25. 24 An example illustrates Trajectory: Antwerp – Charleroi Scenario: no Eurovignette, min. transport tax: Scenario: with Eurovignette, accompanying measure transport tax: Band width€ 0,20€ 0,15€ 0,10€ 0,05 Cost increase20,7 %15,26%9,81%4,37% Reaction -0,1863-0,13734-0,08829-0,03933 Band width€ 0,20€ 0,15€ 0,10€ 0,05 Cost increase 21,31%15,86%10,42%4,98% Reaction -0,19179-0,14274-0,09378-0,04482

26. 25 Some conclusions (1/2) Effect of a kilometre charge differs according to national or international transport:  The longer the trajectory, the more limited the impact on costs  Pure transit traffic on Belgian territory gets more expensive Effect on international hinterland transport of Flemish seaports:  Long distance: impact relatively small  Purely Belgian trajectories: important cost increase  Accompanying measure: neutralises extra cost through charge

27. 26 Some conclusions (2/2) Opportunities -Foreign transporters also pay -Efficiency increases in road transport -Charge revenues can be used for improving infrastructure and other measures  position of the Flemish road transport sector and the economy can be reinforced -Possibility to variabilise can lead to environmental benefits

28. 27 Many thanks for your attention! Thierry Vanelslander Department of Transport and Regional Economics Prinsstraat 13 B-2000 Antwerpen Tel.: -32-3-220 40 34 Fax: -32-3-220 43 95 E-mail: thierry.vanelslander@ua.ac.be Website: www.ua.ac.be/tpr